194
FXUS65 KABQ 300517 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1117 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1104 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through
  Friday east of the Continental Divide with a risk of lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, brief downpours, and flash flooding below
  vulnerable burn scars. Some storms west of the central mountain
  chain will produce gusty winds with little rain and a risk of
  new fire starts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level low is lifting northeast into southwest UT and
steering dry westerlies east across central NM per the latest
water vapor satellite imagery. The 18Z KFGZ upper air sounding
showed 500mb wind speeds of 60kts and this corridor of stronger
winds aloft are now pivoting over far western NM, resulting in
windy conditions this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for the West Central Plateau, including Gallup, where gusts to
between 50-55mph are likely from 3PM through 7PM MDT. Isolated
thunderstorms are still likely across northeast and far eastern NM
this afternoon/evening, but probabilities for severe are on the
wane per the latest RAP13 convective analysis and the SPC has
moved the marginal risk area east of the NM/TX border. The upper
low will push a weak Pacific cold front east across the area this
evening and overnight, drying out eastern NM and resulting in a
beautiful Saturday with daytime temperatures slightly below
average most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Pressure heights rebound Sunday and warmer conditions are
forecast, with high temperatures generally within a few degrees
of average. Flow aloft will weaken and turn more southwesterly
Sunday into Monday allowing Gulf moisture to return to the eastern
plains and South Central Mountains, resulting in a round of
storms by Monday afternoon. A weak Pacific trough near SoCal will
allow low level moisture to transport westward to near the AZ
state line Tue/Wed, resulting in a couple of active days with
fairly widespread chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The
threat for burn scar flash flooding in the South Central
Mountains will return on Monday, then be elevated on Tue/Wed. An
upper high is forecast to strengthen over northwest NM Thu/Fri,
effectively shutting down daily rounds of convection there while
areas along/east of the central mountain chain remain favored. The
threat for burn scar flash flooding in the South Central
Mountains will remain elevated Thu/Fri. Due to the added moisture
resulting in cloud cover and rain-cooling, high temperatures will
generally be below average from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours across northern
and central New Mexico with skies turning mostly clear into
Saturday. Periods of breeziness will be observed tonight as a dry
Pacific front moves through. Breezy to windy conditions will then
develop over the central highlands into the east central and
northeastern plains Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt
being common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper low moving east into UT is steering strong southwest
winds and dry air into western NM and resulting in critical fire
weather conditions west of the Continental Divide this afternoon.
Dry westerlies will progress east across NM overnight into
Saturday and dry conditions will persist into Sunday, although
with less wind and little to no concern for the rapid spread of
fire. Gulf moisture will come back to the eastern plains and south
central areas Monday, resulting in a round of afternoon/evening
wetting storms while hot and dry conditions prevail across western
and north central NM. Moisture will surge west to near the AZ
border on Tuesday and result in higher than average humidity and
chances for wetting storms through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  76  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  72  33  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  40  72  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  34  74  37  81 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  71  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  38  77  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  74  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  75  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  83  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  86  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  67  34  75 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  48  73  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  45  73  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  71  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  37  69  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  36  67  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  42  74  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  43  74  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  46  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  49  74  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  81  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  85  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  50  86  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  49  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  54  84  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  50  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  89  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  78  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  48  78  43  85 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  79  39  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  74  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  79  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  81  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  75  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  74  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  43  79  41  83 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  45  80  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  76  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  51  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  48  80  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  54  86  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  88  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  88  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  59  89  53  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  87  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  59  93  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  54  85  51  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52