151
FXUS65 KABQ 072329
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk remains across much of New Mexico,
  especially the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are
  expected for several days over central and western New Mexico.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through the weekend. Stronger storms will produce gusty outflow
  winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.

- Smoke from wildfires in Utah, Nevada, and Colorado may continue
  to impact air quality across northern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The monsoon high remains entrenched across the Four Corners region
today, centered along the AZ/UT border with H5 heights reaching 598-
599dm. Heat remains the main story for today and Saturday, with
highs commonly reaching the 100F mark across all lower elevation
areas of western, central and eastern NM. A Heat Advisory is in
effect this afternoon for portions of northwestern and central NM
including Farmington, Espanola, Albuquerque, Grants, and the East
Mtn Communities of the Sandia/Manzano Mts. Another Heat Advisory
will be issued with this forecast package for Saturday afternoon and
early evening for these same zones, with the exception of the west-
central highlands (Grants, Acoma and Laguna Pueblos).

Thunderstorm coverage will be modest this afternoon with scattered
storms favoring development along the central mountain chain, and
isolated storm development over the west-central mountains. Steering
flow will be clockwise around the high, pushing storms southeastward
off the Sangre de Cristo`s, westward off the Sacramento`s and Gila
NF, with very slow moving isolated storms if any as one gets closer
to the Four Corners. There is enough instability and modest bulk
shear to allow for a pulse short-lived strong to severe storm moving
off the Sangre de Cristo`s over the adjacent highlands and
northeastern plains this afternoon. Otherwise, storms look to be
fairly typical monsoon season afternoon thunderstorms producing
local wetting footprints, lightning, and gusty and erratic winds.
This activity looks to congeal over the east-central plains of NM
this evening before petering out late this evening the areas
between Tucumcari, Ft. Sumner, Roswell, and Clovis.

Thunderstorm activity trends lower Saturday as the high expands and
builds slightly over northern NM alongside a bit more drier air
intruding from the north. Isolated development and coverage is still
forecast over the high terrain, but with less spread over
surrounding highlands and lower elevations thru the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Subtle and slow changes to the monsoon high begins to take hold
Sunday and through next week. H5 heights begin to lower to 595-596dm
Sunday and Monday while the center of the high remains over the Four
Corners region to along the NM/CO border. This will allow high
temperatures to begin retreating from near record levels across
northern and central NM. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity
will continue to favor development over the high terrain with lower
coverage closer to the Four Corners region. Storms will be slow
movers tracking slowly clockwise around the center of the high each
day. East canyon winds pushing into Santa Fe and Albuquerque each
evening also looks likely into early next week.

Tuesday and beyond sees the monsoon high begin to expand in area
while also lowering in height and meandering eastward toward TX.
This will allow for a tap of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of CA
into the Desert Southwest resulting in an uptick in PWs to the 1.00"
to 1.20" by the later half of next week. Coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms trends upwards with storms becoming more rain
efficient producers. This will increase the risk of flash flooding
where locally heavy rainfall does occur, notably over recent burn
scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to favor southwest and
eastern New Mexico this evening, with storm motions generally to
the south. A few storms could gel into a disorganized line in the
eastern plains, but that looks less likely now based on recent
radar trends. Convection east of the central mountain chain will
continue to create gusty gap winds at KABQ and KSAF until around
03Z this evening, potentially later depending on convection
intensity in eastern New Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Monsoon high remains entrenched over the region allowing for above
normal heat alongside isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms
with small wetting footprints. Moisture ticks up with high
temperatures trending lower by mid to late next week as the monsoon
high slides east of NM. Overnight recoveries improve alongside an
increased coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  53  97  55  97 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  60  95  61  95 /   0   5  10  10
Gallup..........................  57  95  59  94 /   0  10  10  20
El Morro........................  55  89  57  89 /  10  30  10  40
Grants..........................  57  95  59  95 /  10  10  10  20
Quemado.........................  58  90  59  90 /  20  20  10  30
Magdalena.......................  63  91  64  92 /  40   5   0  20
Datil...........................  58  87  58  87 /  20  20   5  50
Reserve.........................  57  94  58  94 /  10  30  10  40
Glenwood........................  61  98  62  99 /  10  40  10  30
Chama...........................  53  90  55  90 /   5   5   0  20
Los Alamos......................  63  91  63  91 /   0  20   5  30
Pecos...........................  57  90  59  92 /   5  20   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  57  90  59  91 /   0   5  10  20
Red River.......................  49  81  50  82 /   0   5  10  30
Angel Fire......................  42  84  45  86 /   0  10   5  40
Taos............................  55  94  57  95 /   0   5   5  10
Mora............................  53  88  55  91 /   0  20   5  50
Espanola........................  61 100  63 100 /   0  10   5  10
Santa Fe........................  62  92  64  93 /   0  10   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  60  95  61  96 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  99  70 100 /   5   5   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  66 100  68 100 /   5   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 102  68 103 /   5   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69 100  70 101 /   5   0   5   5
Belen...........................  65 100  66 102 /  10   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  67 101  68 102 /   5   0   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  64 100  66 102 /   5   0   5   5
Corrales........................  68 102  70 103 /   5   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  66 100  67 101 /   5   0   5   5
Placitas........................  66  97  67  98 /   5   0   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  67 100  69 102 /   5   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  71 102  72 102 /  20   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  94  63  93 /  10   5   5  10
Tijeras.........................  62  95  64  94 /  10  10   5  10
Edgewood........................  56  95  59  95 /  10  10  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  95  57  97 /  20  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  58  91  62  92 /  30   5   5  10
Mountainair.....................  57  94  61  95 /  40   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  91  60  92 /  50   0  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  63  93  64  94 /  30  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  58  86  58  87 /  20  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  57  90  60  91 /   5  10   5  30
Raton...........................  55  93  56  95 /   5  10   5  20
Springer........................  54  95  56  98 /  10  20   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  90  58  93 /  10  20   5  30
Clayton.........................  65  97  69  98 /  10   0   0   5
Roy.............................  59  93  63  95 /  20   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  63 100  69 102 /  50   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  61  96  66  98 /  60   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  63 100  70 102 /  60   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  98  68  99 /  30   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  98  69  99 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  98  68  99 /  70   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  71  99  72 101 /  30   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  64  95  64  97 /  30   0   0   0
Elk.............................  60  92  60  94 /  10   5   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-207-217-219-
221.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ201-217-219-
221.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16