Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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214 FXUS65 KABQ 050808 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 108 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 - Northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across east central New Mexico Friday and Saturday, especially for large and high-profile vehicles. - There is high confidence that dry weather will prevail across central and northern New Mexico through at least the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 Low clouds and freezing fog have developed along the west slopes of the NW high terrain. There are indications that fog is starting to develop in mountain valleys in the Sangre de Cristo mountains as well and this development should continue over the next few hours. The pressure gradient along the central mountain chain will likely prevent fog development in eastern NM and guidance is showing a less than 10% chance of any fog in the Estancia Basin this morning. With dry air settling in tonight, it`s going to allow for temps to drop to bitterly cold levels in much of western and northern New Mexico where temps will be in the single digits at sunrise. Temperatures will rise quite a bit in the afternoon, but will remain a few to as much as 10 degrees below average thanks to some high clouds that will block just enough solar radiation. Northwest flow will prevail over the region tomorrow and 700mb winds of 30-40 kts will create a strong breeze in the Central Highlands and Southeastern Plains. Max wind gusts will most likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range, but there is a low chance (~10%) of gusts over 45 mph. Northwest winds aloft will strengthen Friday night into Saturday morning, with 700mb winds reaching nearly 65 knots by late Saturday morning. This will create some stronger wind gusts from the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains south and eastward into the eastern plains. NBM guidance is showing a moderate chance (40-60%) of wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along the crest of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, but only a low chance (<20%) that these stronger winds extend into the highlands. However, would not be surprised to see these wind probs and the forecast wind gusts increase in at least the Central Highlands in the coming forecast packages given this favorable pattern. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 Winds aloft will rapidly decrease Saturday night, giving way to light winds overnight which will allow strong valley inversions to develop. Northwest flow will remain over the Land of Enchantment throughout the duration of next week as ridging slowly amplifies over the west coast of the US. This will keep the storm track in the central and northern Rockies, allowing the dry weather to continue here in the southern Rockies. Other than a few flurries in the Tusas on Saturday, there is high confidence in no precipitation through the end of next week. There are some models that show this ridge breaking down by the end of next week, which could finally drop the storm track southward into the desert southwest, but this is unlikely (only around 20% chance) and if it did happen, any precip. would be confined to the high terrain near the Colorado border. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 A patch of MVFR cigs around the San Juan Mts tonight will linger thru Friday morning before dissipating in the afternoon. Northwest flow aloft increasing over the Rockies may continue to produce High Turb across northern NM thru Friday night. Surface winds will be elevated again Friday near the east slopes of the central mt chain with gusts in the 25-35KT range, especially around KCQC. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected with passing mid and high level cloud cover Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next seven days. Dry weather will prevail for at least the next 7-10 days as the storm track remains north of New Mexico. Ridging will remain off to the southwest, placing northwest flow over New Mexico. This flow will be strongest Friday through Saturday, creating breezy to gusty northwest winds at times in the typical windy areas along and just east of the central mountains. The slight increase in winds will make minor improvements to ventilation Friday and Saturday afternoons, with worse ventilation expected Sunday through Wednesday. Ventilation may begin to improve later in the week as northwest flow gradually intensifies again. Temperatures will warm each of the next several days, reaching well- above normal for early December by the middle of next week. Good to excellent humidity recoveries are expected tonight through early next week, becoming fair to good by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 21 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 9 43 10 / 0 0 10 0 Cuba............................ 40 17 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 45 16 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 18 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 17 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 18 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 25 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 45 21 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 53 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 58 23 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 9 37 11 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 21 45 24 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 19 45 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 35 14 40 16 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 33 9 36 11 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 11 38 8 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 37 13 43 15 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 42 16 46 18 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 18 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 39 22 45 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 19 47 22 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 26 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 22 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 20 57 22 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 23 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 48 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 48 21 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 43 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 23 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 53 24 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 22 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 23 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 42 21 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 18 49 19 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 37 20 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 21 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 22 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 15 51 19 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 45 13 53 17 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 44 12 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 18 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 21 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 44 18 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 20 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 21 63 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 24 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 56 23 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 22 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 60 26 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 57 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 57 26 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42