Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
164 FXUS65 KABQ 082025 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 225 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - A few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and small hail in western and central New Mexico this afternoon and evening. - The remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla will bring widespread to numerous showers and storms to the area Friday through Sunday, with the heaviest rain and highest flash flood risk focusing over western New Mexico on Saturday. - There is moderate to high confidence that the wet pattern will continue into early and mid-next week as well-above normal moisture levels persist over New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 As of Noon, patchy fog and low clouds persist in much of central and eastern NM, but the trend has been for decreasing coverage as winds turn back around to the south. Storms have begun to develop over the Continental Divide where morning clearing allowed the sfc to warm- up. These storms will continue to increase in coverage as they slowly drift eastward into the Rio Grande Valley late this afternoon and in the evening. Despite persistent fog this morning, storms are expected to develop over the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon. A theta-e ridge is present over central New Mexico and higher moisture air is being advected in from the south, indicating instability is present even if sfc heating won`t be impressive today. HREF 50th percentile rainfall amounts today range from 0.3- 0.7" which would be borderline for flash flooding, but high-end amounts (90th percentile) are showing 1-1.25" which would very likely cause impacts, even if rainfall intensities are moderate. Max rainfall intensity is the biggest question mark and will be what determines if there is excessive runoff or not. The HREF has been consistently showing the batch of storms over west- central NM, moving into the ABQ/Santa Fe areas this evening, with a few showers and storms lingering as late as 2AM tomorrow morning. There may be a few showers and storms in western NM as well, but confidence is lower out there. The HREF is bullish once again about fog development tonight for areas just east of the central mountain chain and in the southeast plains, while the NBM is showing hardly any reduced visibility at all. With southerly winds (as opposed to easterly upslope) conditions will be less favorable for fog, but very high RH (98%+) for almost all of central and eastern NM does suggest at least patchy fog will develop in the typical favored areas such as the central highlands. Ridging will continue to amplify over the southern Rockies on Thursday, pushing the main plume of moisture into western NM and Arizona. Afternoon showers and storms will favor the western third of the CWA as a result, with mostly light to moderate intensities. Temperatures will come down a few degrees across the west, with higher temps in the east thanks to breezy south winds that will help to dry and warm the plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A longwave trough over the western US will interact with deep, subtropical moisture (the remnants of now Tropical Storm Priscilla) Friday through Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation to central and northern New Mexico. The base of the trough will still be over the eastern Pacific on Friday, placing the main plume of moisture off to the west of New Mexico. PWAT anomalies will be as high as 6 std dev above normal in northern AZ, with values as high as 4-5 std dev above normal in far northwestern NM. Lift from a jet streak over Utah will help to drive precipitation Friday and Friday in western NM, with coverage expanding eastward through the night as the trough begins to dig into The Great Basin. Since we are in October now, jet dynamics will drive rainfall and precip. will be less diurnally driven as a result. Rainfall rates will peak during the afternoon hours when instability is greatest, but showers will likely persist through the overnight hours into the morning on Saturday. As it sits, Saturday is currently looking like it has the potential to be the wettest and most impactful day of the period. Moisture levels (per NAEFS guidance) will be above the 99.5th percentile for all areas along and west of the central mountain chain and increased lift from the approaching trough will drive the development of numerous showers and storms, with the greatest coverage across the northwestern portion of the state. Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk of excessive runoff and creeks and streams will likely be running high as a result. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values will also be well-above normal and this moist transport from the southwest will generate some orographic rainfall over the mountains of western NM. The good news is that much of this rain will fall into areas with severe to extreme drought conditions as 1-2" of widespread rainfall could help to put a small dent into these drought conditions. The main slug of moisture will be advected eastward on Sunday, but at least scattered showers and storms should continue into Sunday throughout much of the CWA. While the highest rainfall totals will not be over the Ruidoso burn scars, repeated rounds of rain in that area will pose at least a moderate risk of flash flooding on Sunday (and potentially Monday - Wednesday as well). Folks in that area should be alert to the heavy rain threat even through we area even though we are out of monsoon season. New Mexico will remain squeezed between a ridge over TX and a trough over the western US next week, pushing more subtropical moisture into New Mexico. Model agreement is high with regard to the ridge over Texas, but low for the location of the trough over western NM. Another tropical system will likely get pulled up into the desert southwest and this deeper moisture could once again trigger flash flooding. GEFS mean PWATs are already showing PWATs of 200-300% of normal across almost the entire CWA by Tuesday of next week, which is quite impressive for an ensemble mean that far into the future considering the moderately high model disagreement. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 MVFR to IFR cigs and patchy fog are still present along and just east of the central mtn chain, but winds are starting to turn around to the south and strengthen so these should continue to break up through the afternoon. Storms today will favor western and central NM, with gusty outflow winds and briefly reduced vis the main aviation concerns. Showers and storms may persist past 03Z in central NM, with decreasing coverage elsewhere. The fog forecast for tonight is tricky, but there is at least a low chance of fog for the favored areas just east of the central mountain chain and in the southeast plains. Patchy low clouds and fog may extend into the RGV, but confidence was not high enough to include in any TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Scattered showers and storms will favor central and western NM today. RH recoveries tonight will once again be excellent areawide and some patchy fog may develop along and east of the Continental Divide as well. Rain will be confined to the western third of the state on Thursday, expanding eastward Friday into Saturday as rain chances and intensities increase. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely during this period for all areas along and west of the central mountain chain and the high terrain of western NM may see 2"+. There is moderate to high confidence that the wet pattern will continue into early and mid-next week as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 77 59 74 / 20 30 50 50 Dulce........................... 43 74 46 69 / 30 30 40 40 Cuba............................ 47 71 50 70 / 50 30 30 20 Gallup.......................... 49 73 51 74 / 20 30 40 30 El Morro........................ 49 69 50 71 / 40 30 30 20 Grants.......................... 48 71 50 72 / 40 30 30 20 Quemado......................... 49 71 50 74 / 30 30 10 10 Magdalena....................... 52 70 54 72 / 30 20 5 5 Datil........................... 49 68 49 69 / 40 30 10 10 Reserve......................... 49 77 50 77 / 30 30 10 10 Glenwood........................ 54 82 54 81 / 30 20 5 5 Chama........................... 41 69 45 64 / 20 30 40 40 Los Alamos...................... 50 69 53 70 / 60 30 20 20 Pecos........................... 48 70 49 70 / 40 20 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 72 49 70 / 20 20 20 20 Red River....................... 39 63 41 62 / 20 20 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 33 68 35 66 / 20 20 10 10 Taos............................ 45 73 47 72 / 30 20 20 10 Mora............................ 41 70 44 70 / 30 30 10 10 Espanola........................ 50 77 53 76 / 60 30 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 51 70 54 71 / 60 20 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 73 53 73 / 60 20 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 75 60 77 / 50 20 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 77 58 78 / 50 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 79 58 80 / 50 20 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 77 59 78 / 50 20 10 5 Belen........................... 52 79 55 80 / 40 20 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 78 58 79 / 60 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 52 78 55 80 / 50 20 5 5 Corrales........................ 54 78 58 80 / 50 20 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 53 78 56 80 / 50 20 5 0 Placitas........................ 54 73 57 75 / 50 20 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 55 78 58 78 / 60 20 10 5 Socorro......................... 57 80 58 81 / 30 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 70 52 71 / 50 20 10 5 Tijeras......................... 52 71 54 73 / 50 20 10 5 Edgewood........................ 47 73 50 74 / 40 20 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 73 48 75 / 30 20 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 47 68 49 70 / 30 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 48 72 50 73 / 30 20 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 72 50 73 / 20 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 74 54 75 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 67 48 69 / 20 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 47 73 50 71 / 5 5 0 0 Raton........................... 46 76 49 75 / 5 10 5 5 Springer........................ 46 78 50 77 / 10 10 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 47 70 49 70 / 20 20 10 5 Clayton......................... 56 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 52 74 53 74 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 54 80 55 81 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 52 75 53 76 / 10 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 54 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 80 56 82 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 57 80 56 82 / 5 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 56 78 55 79 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 80 58 82 / 10 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 75 53 77 / 20 10 0 0 Elk............................. 51 73 49 75 / 10 20 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16