Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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357 FXUS65 KABQ 101128 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 428 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 419 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 - North wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph over far eastern New Mexico this morning will create difficult travel for large and high- profile vehicles along east-west roadways, including I-40. - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will persist through at least Sunday across central and northern New Mexico. && .UPDATE... Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 North winds are much stronger than the NBM median and MOS model guidance this morning with the backdoor cold front over eastern NM. Grids were nudged into the windy category in the wake of the frontal passage through mid morning Wednesday. This edit was above the NBM 90th percentile and closer to the 18Z MAVMOS. Obs over the TX panhandle indicate gusts between 40 and 50 mph cannot be ruled out around the Caprock this morning. Travel along I-40 may be difficult for large and high-profile vehicles for a few hours this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1159 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 A persistent upper level ridge off the CA coastline will continue to deliver northwest flow aloft over the southern Rockies thru at least Friday. This pattern will allow periodic backdoor cold fronts to slip into eastern NM as a series of surface highs build south into the central U.S. One of these fronts is moving south into eastern NM this morning with northerly wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Travel along I-40 east of Santa Rosa may be difficult for large and high- profile vehicles for a couple hours early this morning. Otherwise, cooler air in the wake of the front will trend high temps around 10F below Tuesday`s highs. Downslope flow returns Thursday with a surface lee trough over northeast NM. High temps will rebound 15 to 20F with a few locales near record highs for mid December, including parts of western NM (within 3F). The next weak front will move into eastern NM Thursday night with high temps 10 to 15F cooler Friday, mainly over northeast NM. A few more near record highs are possible over central and western NM. Overnight lows thru Friday will be 5 to 15F above for the entire area. Midslope inversion patterns will still keep the coolest temps in northern and western valleys. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1159 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Another surface lee trough will form Saturday with highs rebounding up to 20F above normal across eastern NM. Several more near-record highs will occur areawide. Changes arrive Saturday night with a more potent backdoor cold front likely to enter eastern NM as a 1045mb surface high builds down the Great Plains. The colder temps over eastern NM Sunday morning are still just near normal. Lee troughing then takes shape again along the Front Range Sunday afternoon with increasing southerly winds. This may help limit the residence time of cooler air over eastern NM. The latest NBM 25th to 75th percentile MaxT spread is > 13F over eastern NM Sunday, so expect the temp forecast to waffle around for a couple more days. The rest of central and western NM is likely to experience very little impact from this front Sunday with high temps around 5F cooler and lows still 5 to 15F above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 419 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 A backdoor cold front surging south across eastern NM early this morning will bring a brief period of wind gusts between 30 and 40KT. Winds will taper off thru late morning while veering around to the south and southwest over eastern NM. Otherwise, northwest flow aloft will continue across the southern Rockies with patchy cirrus thru tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1159 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Thursday and Saturday are the days with the greatest potential for a few pockets of elevated fire weather over east-central NM. Min RH is expected to fall to between 15 and 20% with west-northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and above normal temps. Overnight recoveries will still be good to excellent areawide. ERCs are generally below the 50th percentile so there is little risk for large fire growth. The other item to note is poor ventilation forecast everyday for most of the area, except for pockets of fair rates over eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 53 20 55 20 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 26 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 59 19 62 17 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 60 21 64 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 59 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 57 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 28 71 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 74 26 75 27 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 51 25 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 33 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 53 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 44 27 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 50 19 56 18 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 53 18 58 18 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 56 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 59 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 53 35 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 37 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 27 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 60 21 62 22 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 60 32 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 21 62 22 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 61 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 60 22 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 56 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 64 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 33 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 54 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 56 30 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 24 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 57 31 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 56 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 49 31 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 53 25 67 23 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 56 21 70 22 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 51 31 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 58 29 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 35 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 58 32 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 36 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 58 31 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 62 33 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 59 37 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 59 34 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42