226
FXUS65 KABQ 201859
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1259 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread
  heavy rain Tuesday through Wednesday night with a very good
  chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as
  some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon surge should continue at a less intense pace
  Thursday and Friday, when locally heavy rainfall will continue
  to be a threat as precipitation amounts generally trend downward
  with each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The westerlies have steered much drier air over the region per the
latest water vapor satellite imagery and this is reflected in a much
lower PWAT of 0.59" on the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding. This
relatively dry atmosphere is forecast to persist into Monday,
providing a two day break before the next Monsoon moisture surge
on Tuesday. However, a few storms may spark across far eastern NM
Monday afternoon/evening along and immediately behind a backdoor
front, forecast to make westward progress into central NM Monday
night. The front will create a gusty east canyon wind into the
Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Monday night, but the latest
guidance has backed off the speeds some compared to yesterday`s
12Z modeling. We`re still looking at speeds below advisory
criteria in eastern Albuquerque below Tijeras Canyon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Moisture advection will ramp up significantly Tuesday into
Wednesday, partially attributable to moisture transport behind
the backdoor front and mostly because of an impressive Monsoon
moisture plume that is forecast to stand up over the region. The
squeeze play between an approaching Pacific low and the upper
high along the TX coast will play out Tue/Wed in a very wet
scenario, with continuation into Thu/Fri across eastern NM. PWATs
are forecast to rise up and challenge calendar day records Tue/Wed
and then settle back down to between the 90th percentile and
calendar day records Thu/Fri. WPC has included much of our area in
a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday and
will likely see an upgrade for Wednesday to a moderate risk for
east central and south central portions of NM. Deeper convection
with higher rainfall rates are likely Tuesday on the front end of
the moisture advection due to greater instability, especially
across western NM. Widespread showers with embedded thunder are
forecast late Tuesday night through Wednesday, so rainfall rates
will likely retreat due to much less instability with a rain-
cooled lower boundary layer. The high temperature forecast for our
area on Wednesday continues to trend down and we`re lagging the
GFS MOS, which currently shows a high of 64 degrees at the
Albuquerque Sunport. The Pacific low is forecast to open up and
pull northeast away from the region around the upper high
circulation late Wednesday into Thursday, reorienting the Monsoon
moisture plume to more over eastern NM where a continued heavy
rainfall and flood threat will reside. River flooding is possible
Wed/Thu, but more likely Thursday across eastern NM as two days
worth of rainfall runoff gradually makes it`s way into the main
stems. PWATs will trend down Friday through the weekend as the
upper high over TX ridges westward across northern MX and shuts
our moisture tap off. Residual moisture will be sufficient for
more limited daily rounds of convection Friday through Sunday,
while temperatures trend back up closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with the development of VFR cigs in the form of high
clouds across western NM overnight. Showers may move in the
vicinity of KROW this afternoon, but are not forecast to impact
the terminal. Winds will generally be light, except for some minor
gustiness behind a backdoor front across northeast NM early
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days as an active late Monsoon pattern persists.
Notable drying of the atmosphere today into Monday, but moisture
advection will ramp up beginning Monday night and continue into
Wednesday as another Monsoon moisture plume stands up over the
region. The result will be high humidity and soaking rainfall
during the Tuesday through Thursday period, with potential for
flash flooding both on and off area burn scars. PWATs will trend
down late in the week through the weekend and be associated with a
gradual downtrend in humidity and daily rounds of wetting storms.
Winds will generally be light through the period, except for gusty
and erratic winds associated with showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  80  54  79 /   0   0   5  50
Dulce...........................  37  77  39  75 /   0   0   5  60
Cuba............................  47  74  50  71 /   0   0  10  50
Gallup..........................  45  77  48  75 /   0   0   0  60
El Morro........................  45  74  48  72 /   0   0   5  70
Grants..........................  47  77  51  74 /   0   0   5  70
Quemado.........................  49  76  52  74 /   0   0   5  70
Magdalena.......................  53  77  56  73 /   0   0  10  60
Datil...........................  50  74  52  70 /   0   0  10  70
Reserve.........................  50  81  52  78 /   0   0   5  60
Glenwood........................  57  87  59  83 /   0   0   5  50
Chama...........................  40  71  44  69 /   0   0   5  60
Los Alamos......................  52  75  55  71 /   0   0  20  60
Pecos...........................  48  76  52  71 /   0   0  40  80
Cerro/Questa....................  45  73  48  71 /   0   0  10  50
Red River.......................  38  65  40  63 /   0   0  20  60
Angel Fire......................  32  70  34  67 /   0   0  20  70
Taos............................  42  76  45  74 /   0   0  10  50
Mora............................  46  73  48  68 /   0  10  50  70
Espanola........................  49  81  53  78 /   0   0  10  50
Santa Fe........................  52  76  55  72 /   0   0  20  70
Santa Fe Airport................  49  79  55  75 /   0   0  10  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  82  60  78 /   0   0  10  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  82  58  78 /   0   0  10  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  83  57  80 /   0   0  10  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  82  59  78 /   0   0  10  60
Belen...........................  53  84  57  80 /   0   0  10  50
Bernalillo......................  54  83  59  79 /   0   0  10  70
Bosque Farms....................  52  84  55  80 /   0   0  10  60
Corrales........................  54  83  58  79 /   0   0  10  60
Los Lunas.......................  54  84  57  80 /   0   0  10  50
Placitas........................  55  81  58  76 /   0   0  10  70
Rio Rancho......................  54  82  58  78 /   0   0  10  60
Socorro.........................  59  86  61  81 /   0   0  10  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  76  54  72 /   0   0  20  80
Tijeras.........................  55  78  56  74 /   0   0  20  80
Edgewood........................  50  79  53  74 /   0   0  20  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  81  50  75 /   0   0  20  80
Clines Corners..................  51  76  52  69 /   0   0  30  80
Mountainair.....................  51  79  52  74 /   0   0  10  80
Gran Quivira....................  51  79  54  74 /   0   0  10  80
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  80
Ruidoso.........................  53  76  53  69 /   0   0  30  80
Capulin.........................  51  70  50  70 /  40  40  40  40
Raton...........................  49  76  50  74 /  20  10  40  50
Springer........................  49  78  51  75 /  10  10  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  49  74  52  69 /   5   5  50  70
Clayton.........................  57  72  55  75 /  40  60  40  30
Roy.............................  55  73  54  71 /  10  20  50  40
Conchas.........................  60  82  60  79 /   0  10  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  57  81  59  76 /   0   0  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  60  80  59  79 /   0   5  40  50
Clovis..........................  60  84  59  78 /  10  30  30  50
Portales........................  61  85  60  78 /  10  30  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  58  87  61  79 /   0   0  20  70
Roswell.........................  61  92  63  83 /  10   0  40  80
Picacho.........................  58  85  58  76 /   0   0  30  80
Elk.............................  56  83  56  74 /   0   0  30  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11