217
FXUS63 KABR 280615
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
115 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain over central SD this morning will expand across
  northeastern SD and west central MN tonight, before exiting
  east during the day Tuesday. Chances linger over far eastern
  SD into Wednesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible.

- Rain amounts have a 50-70% chance of exceeding 0.5" between
  this morning and Tuesday morning. Some localized areas of
  0.75" are also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, some rain has moved into north central and
central SD. This is expected to spread east and continue through the
day today. Some weak thunderstorms are also possible with no severe
storms expected. Temperatures across the region are in the mid 50s
with light winds. Some fog will be possible around and east of I-29
this morning.

As mentioned, rain and some thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day and into Tuesday, with some chances lingering
through Wednesday afternoon over far eastern SD into west central
MN. While the amounts expected haven`t changed too much, the spacial
extent of those amounts has. The 50-70% chance of more than a half
inch of rain between this morning and Tuesday morning now extends as
far south as Pierre and as far east as Aberdeen and Redfield. This
is a pretty decent southward expansion compared to 24 hours ago.
This is a result of a slight change in the track of the low. With
the precipitation expected to last into Wednesday afternoon over
eastern SD and west central MN, the chance of half inch is around 50-
70%, generally east of the Prairie Coteau. The rest of the forecast
looks to be a lot drier.

Temperatures are still expected to be right around to slightly above
average through the middle of the week and turn towards slightly
below average for the second half of the week into the weekend.
Winds across central SD will start to gust 25 to 30 mph this
morning, with gusts of 35 mph possible across south central SD
through the late evening. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will spread east to
around the James River this afternoon and continue into the evening.
Winds Friday may gust up to 30 mph west of the Missouri River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will fall to MVFR Monday as rain moves into the
region. Ceilings may fluctuate frequently between VFR and MVFR
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20