757
FXUS63 KABR 211945
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with
temperatures around average for this time of year.

- There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the
day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to
northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a
40-70% chance.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather
Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy
rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main
concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Small waves in our otherwise northwesterly flow at 500mb is helping
support clouds and light showers or sprinkles mainly southwest and
north of the forecast area this afternoon. The last of any lingering
light showers should be to our east by 02Z. Otherwise, mainly dry
weather continues through 05Z Sunday.

The 500mb ridge set up to our west looks to push overhead Sunday, as
a surface trough strengthens over western SD/NE. This will bring our
next chance of precipitation, with a 30-60% chance of showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly central SD Sunday into
early Sunday evening before expanding/pushing over northeastern SD
and west central MN Sunday night while increasing to 40-70%. As
noted in the previous discussion, with high PW values, heavy rain
will be possible. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of
severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD.
Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will
be the main concern if storms develop.

We`ll keep an eye on Monday night into Tuesday as
well as the 500mb Canadian low rotates through south central Canada
with a stacked surface low pushing a cold front across our area.
Additional showers or storms will be possible. Otherwise, we`ll be
looking at Thursday afternoon and evening for another round of
showers or thunderstorms. Upper 70s to mid 80s will remain common
through the period, with the highest temperatures Monday over
central SD (a few low 90s possible Monday or Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06