138
FXUS63 KABR 281720 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances (50-70%) for showers Friday night/Saturday with
  the higher moisture potential across central South Dakota.

- Cooler (below normal) temperatures in store by Wednesday and
  Thursday of next week. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Fog has been quickly dissipating in the last hour. Allowed the
dense fog advisories to expire.

UPDATE Issued at 820 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Extended the dense fog advisories in time and space to include
a more northern extent into Brown county. Visibility remains below
a quarter mile in many locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Watching fog trends on satellite early this morning as it slowly
develops across portions of the CWA, mainly east of the Missouri
River. A larger area of dense fog lies just east across MN and is
now beginning to move into far eastern portions of the CWA.
Headlines for fog to our east, so will have to monitor potential for
dense fog expansion to the west as models suggest over the next few
hours.

For later today, looking at mostly dry conditions across the region
as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will
remain fairly light again and generally favor an east to southeast
direction by this afternoon.

Main story in the forecast continues to be the increasing precip
chances Friday through the weekend. Not much in the way of changes
in regards to areas of best rainfall potential. With the way models
are showing the low moving across the region, central SD remains in
the area of best lift in association with the low placement. Current
forecast continues to highlight the highest precip chances (60-70%)
across central SD eastward into the central James River valley
Friday night into Saturday. There will be questions as to how far
east precip potential makes it, or at least areal coverage of any
showers should be less the further east you go in the CWA.

Seeing growing evidence of cooler temperatures moving into the
region towards the end of the forecast period Wednesday and
Thursday. Grand Ensemble shows mid-level flow turning northwesterly
by the middle of next week, with a cool air mass moving in as 850mb
temps are shown to drop into the single digits above zero C across
eastern SD into MN. This could translate to highs in the 60s for
many areas, with lows in the 40s, perhaps upper 30s. Grand Ensemble
probability for temps below 40 degrees does show about 10% by 12Z
next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Fog and stratus
may redevelop in the morning. Pinpointing locations is difficult
at this time, but added in some IFR conditions at KABR and KMBG
for now between 12z and 15z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20