454
FXUS63 KABR 140028
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
728 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloud cover will remain in place for much of the area tonight, with
  only slow erosion expected on Saturday. Fog is possible tonight
  across the area as well.

- There is a Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms over
  most of the forecast area Saturday/Saturday night. Main threat
  is marginally severe hail around quarter size.

- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday and Monday as Slight risk
  area (threat level 2 of 5) pushes eastward through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Flood warnings continue continue across portions of northeastern
SD and west central MN. The light drizzle over far northeastern
SD and west central MN will continue to slowly diminish this
evening. The ongoing forecast looks on track, with few changes
anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Plenty of cloud cover across the CWA this afternoon, along with some
light fog and drizzle across the eastern CWA, mainly in the Coteau/I-
29 region and points east. Have mention of fog and drizzle across
the east through the remainder of the afternoon. As for the
overnight hours, looks like cloud cover will remain in place as fog
potential expands further west.

Looking at a rather active pattern setting up during the 7-day
forecast, with potential for strong to severe storms increasing
especially by Sunday and Monday. Stalled out surface front will
waffle around across southern SD and NE into Monday of next week,
with disturbances in the mid levels tracking across the central and
northern plains. Models suggest shower/thunderstorm activity
remaining rather scant tonight through Saturday, but some increase
in areal coverage is expected Saturday night with the increase of a
low-level jet across the region (more so NE into southern SD). With
MUCAPE values off the HREF from 1500-2500 J/KG, there could be some
stronger storms across the region. Setup looks a bit better on
Sunday/Sunday night with another shortwave moving across the region
as moderate to strong instability sets up. Even into Monday we
continue to see chances for strong to severe storms as dewpoints
finally rise into the 60s across the region, so plenty of low-level
moisture in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 729 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the TAF period, with
some improvement in the way of diminishing low level moisture
after 18Z Saturday. Late evening and overnight fog will return to
ATY, with a lower chance of fog at ABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06