464
FXUS63 KABR 011622
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1122 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air remains across the area today, with high temperatures
today in the 40s, about 10 degrees below normal. A warmup is
expected on Sunday with high temperatures back above normal in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

- Breezy southerly winds turn northwesterly and combine with the
warmer temperatures to create elevated fire weather concerns Sunday
afternoon, particularly across north central South Dakota. Gusts may
reach up to 30 to 40 miles per hour Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Fog trapped under high pressure is just starting to erode but has
consumed a large chunk of realestate between the Missouri and
James valleys.

NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate mid level clouds and some ascent
with the next clipper Sunday afternoon/evening, with a number of
ENS members indicating a hundredth or two for most of the CWA,
though the GEFS/GEPS are drier. Added sprinkles as BUFKIT profiles
indicate limited lift and a dry subcloud layer.

As for fire weather concerns, its convoluted. Southwest winds
ahead of the front aren`t particularly strong but bring in milder
temperatures and a slight uptick (upper 30s) in dewpoints. The
wind shift to the northwest in the afternoon will increases
mixing, with lower humidity and cooling temperatures. NAM BUFKIT
profiles bring mixed winds up around 30kts for north central South
Dakota. Latest NBM is about 4-5kts lower in wind speeds compared
to the previous forecast, with lower probabilities in regards to
those higher (ie 35, 40 and 45mph) wind thresholds. Thats pretty
in line with most recent CAMS and ensembles. This points to some
localized enhanced fire concerns with the main issue coming from
the wind shift that could catch people/firefighters off guard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Some light, isolated showers are hanging around this morning over
northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Little to no
additional accumulation is expected this morning, and showers are
expected to be out of the area shortly after sunrise. A positively
tilted upper-level ridge begins to work its way into the area today,
supporting a high pressure center moving over the forecast area this
morning. This high pressure center will support mainly dry
conditions with fairly light winds today, the one exception being
some 20-25 mile per hour wind gusts over north central South Dakota
associated with a tightening pressure gradient on the back end of
the high pressure.

Focus then turns to Sunday, where the return of stronger winds will
be the main concern. A transition to zonal flow aloft will occur
overnight Saturday and early Sunday, bringing stronger winds
overhead and supporting a near-surface low pressure center over
Canada. This in turn will lead to a warm front passing through
overnight Saturday followed by a dry cold front Sunday afternoon.
Winds strengthening behind the front and veer northwesterly. Gusts
will be strongest over north central South Dakota, reaching up to
40+ miles per hour at times. Latest NBM probabilities do show some
slight potential for Wind Advisory winds in that area, but only
range from 10-30% for both sustained winds (criteria of 30 miles per
hour) and wind gusts (45 miles per hour). With such low chances and
still around 36 hours out from the event, no headline will be issued
at this time. The strong winds coinciding with the lowest afternoon
humidity may also elevate the Grassland Fire Danger over north
central South Dakota.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

When the period opens Sunday night, a cold front that has cleared
most of the CWA still looks to be pushing down across central South
Dakota as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. A
couple of model solutions appear to be trying to generate a handful
of showers along the frontal boundary as it slinks southward into
the southern half of the state Sunday evening. No PoPs showing up in
the ensemble-generated precipitation chances grids just now, so will
monitor that over the next couple of days to see if anything comes
of it. Otherwise, clusters analysis still shows the upper level flow
pattern being dominated by ridging over the western CONUS and
troughing over the east through next Friday. The deterministic GSM`s
compliment this with some additional detail; namely that there will
be two or three systems that move inland from the eastern Pacific
ocean, trying to knock down the upper ridge as they work east
across NOAM. This ends up making the pattern periodically appear
zonal or nearly zonal before the upper ridge bounces back into
place over the western CONUS. So, still looking at a couple of
frontal passages throughout the period, but still generally a dry
forecast, as systems spend much of their "energy"/time knocking
down the ridge to get over into the central/northern plains, with
little to show for precipitation potential over the
central/northern plains as they attempt to head toward the eastern
CONUS. QPF clusters analysis this morning, similar to yesterday,
in that none of the 4 clusters or the ensemble mean have a tenth
of an inch or more over this region in any 24 hour period between
Monday and Friday.

Ensembles depiction of temperatures showcase "warmer than normal"
for next week. Although, heading into November, that means anything
above 50 degrees basically. And, right now, the 25th to 75th
percentiles for temperature in the ensembles data is supporting high
temperatures somewhere between 50F and 60F degrees for much of the
period. Perhaps the coldest day of the period, per the deterministic
GSM`s, comes Wednesday in the wake of one of those cold frontal
passages, where high temperatures may only end up topping out in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low to mid cloud deck is currently moving over the forecast area,
occasionally dropping ceilings to MVFR levels. These clouds are
expected to stick around through most of the morning but depart by
this evening. High pressure center moves in today, so gentle winds
can be expected through the daytime today with the exception of
parts of north central South Dakota. A warm front will pass through
the area late tonight into early Sunday morning, leading to an
increase in southerly winds near the end of the TAF period. A dry
cold front will follow Sunday afternoon, with strong northwesterly
winds behind it. Winds are expected to gust up to 25 to 35 knots,
with the highest gusts Sunday afternoon located over north central
South Dakota.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC