378
FXAK68 PAFC 201352
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A vertically stacked low continues to make slow but steady
eastward progress this morning, with the center situated to the
west of Kodiak Island close to Pilot Point. Broad southerly flow
has developed out ahead of this feature, sending a steady stream
of Gulf moisture north into Southcentral. Steady rain has
overspread much of the Gulf coastline while periodic shower
activity continues to drift north across more inland areas this
morning. At the surface, a front and weak area of low pressure
are now approaching the Gulf coast from the south, supporting a
small corridor of easterly winds reaching Small Craft levels
along a small barrier jet forming between the front and the
coastline. The strongest winds will stay mainly south of the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound, and they will steadily weaken
as the front heads inland and begins to lose definition later
today.

Overall, there is still not much change regarding the outlook
through the end of the week. As the frontal wave in the Gulf lifts
north and inland, it does look like a few more intense bands of
shower activity will lift north along with it across the Kenai
Peninsula into parts of Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys and Copper
Basin late this morning into this evening. We`ve reflected this in
the latest forecast package, with much of the above areas now
looking at a 60-80% chance of measurable rainfall through this
evening. The main low pressure to the west will begin to cross
the northern Gulf by tonight into early Friday morning, prolonging
the overall showery and overcast pattern.

By Friday, a small break in the wet weather looks likely as the
low moves east into the Panhandle region. It does not exactly look
like a clear and sunny day on tap, but at least it should not be
nearly as wet for most of the day, especially towards the
afternoon and evening hours. The next system will begin to move
in from the west by Saturday as a complex digging trough
approaches the western Alaska Range and Kodiak. Another batch of
steady rain will spread across Southcentral from west to east as
this trough slides into the western Gulf. There is still some
lingering uncertainty in terms of the timing and duration of
steady rainfall, especially given how much models have struggled
to resolve how this system will behave farther west over the
Bering and Southwest before it gets here. Even so, the chances for
a dry weekend are still not looking great.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Similar conditions to yesterday can be expected across Southwest
Alaska today with showers and low stratus continuing as the upper
low slowly transfers its energy to the western Gulf of Alaska
through this afternoon. Meanwhile, low stratus similarly blankets
nearly the entirety of the Bering as a ridge builds over the
western Aleutians.

Southwest Alaska gets a very short break from the rain tonight as
a stronger and wetter system develops in the northern Bering with
its front reaching the Southwest coast Friday morning. The main
forecast challenge continues to be how the upper-level trough
digging across Siberia through this afternoon interacts and phases
with a shortwave emerging off of Kamchatka and entering the
western Bering this afternoon. How these upper-level features
interact will ultimately determine the strength of this system,
with the NAM and GFS guidance remaining the stronger solutions
compared to the European and Canadian guidance. Despite the model
disagreement, winds are expected to be no stronger than small-
craft across the Bering regardless of which solution plays out
with rainfall being the bigger factor with this storm. Light to
moderate rain will arrive to the Pribilof Islands tonight, move to
the Southwest coast Friday morning, and spread inland throughout
the day on Friday. The low continues into Western Alaska as steady
rain across Southwest tapers to showers from west to east through
Saturday.

As the low departs Southwest and transitions into the Gulf
through Saturday evening, northerly flow will develop on the back
side of the low across the eastern Bering as a ridge builds across
the central Bering. This will cause enhanced winds through the
gaps of the Eastern Aleutians and the gaps and passes along the
Pacific-side of the AKPEN. There is not a lot of cold air expected
to drop down from the north as the trough digs, so expect small-
craft winds with some gale-force gusts through the gaps and passes
of the Eastern Aleutians and AKPEN.

Another low pressure system lifts from the North Pacific to the
western Bering and Western Aleutians Saturday morning upstream of
the ridge in the central Bering. This system will bring in a push
of warm and moist tropical to sub-tropical air into the western
Bering through Saturday. Rain moves from Shemya Saturday morning
to Adak by Saturday evening. By Saturday evening, expect sustained
small craft winds across the western Bering. There are
indications that winds will strengthen further as pieces of upper-
level energy interact and potentially phase with one another
towards the second half of the weekend. Stay tuned for forecast
updates as the active weather pattern across Southwest and the
Bering Sea continues to unfold.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long term forecast remains active over Southern Alaska.
Sunday will see a low move into the Bering from Kamchatka, leading
to gusty winds and rainfall over much of the Bering, including
the Pribilof Islands. The Southwest mainland will have ridging
over it and thus, weaker winds and low rain chances. There is a
decent amount of uncertainty regarding intensity of rainfall and
winds with the low. Southcentral will also have a low over the
Gulf of Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the low will have moved
out east, with rainfall diminishing over Southcentral.

By Monday, the low in the Bering will take a turn to the north due
to ridging over the mainland. However, the low`s front will still
progress eastward, pushing inland by Monday afternoon as the ridge
moves east. This rainfall will last into Tuesday as a trough moves
in and reinforces the rainfall. In Southcentral, ridging arrives
on Monday, allowing for clearer skies and weaker wind speeds. This
will last until Tuesday evening, when the aforementioned trough
continues eastward and drapes over Southcentral. The trough will
bring rainfall likely across the Susitna Valley and even into
Anchorage and Western Kenai.

Come Wednesday, uncertainty increases with the potential for a low
to move into the Bering. This would bring gusty winds and rainfall
across the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska may see lingering
rainfall if the trough moves out slower, otherwise, rainfall will
diminish as zonal flow arises. Again, the exact track of features
cannot be realized as of now, so the forecast is likely to change.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and ceilings above 5000 ft will prevail.
Ceilings may drop briefly to MVFR during this period, but
visibility should stay VFR with a slight chance of dropping to
MVFR during any locally heavier rain showers. Light winds will
persist.


&&


$$