574
FXAK68 PAFC 220125
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 PM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A vertically stacked low located just south of Prince William
Sound continues to weaken as it lifts inland to the northwest.
Behind this system a transient ridge drifts overhead tonight. As
a result, shower coverage has diminished across much of
Southcentral, with many areas seeing sunshine. Despite this
ridge, some isolated showers may linger in spots tonight,
particularly for mountainous and coastal areas.

However, this period of improved weather won`t persist, as
another shortwave trough moving over Southwest Alaska pushes into
Southcentral by Saturday morning. This will cause rain showers to
fill into most areas by mid-to-late morning tomorrow. The Western
Susitna Valley will likely be a hot-spot for precipitation, given
strong moisture advection off of the Cook Inlet, as well as
typical coastal areas along the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound. Southeasterly downsloping flow off the Chugach
Range will suppress precipitation in and around Anchorage, though
southeasterly winds will result in gusty winds across the
Anchorage Hillside and the south side of town. The Copper River
Basin will remain mostly dry with some breezy southeast winds
tomorrow afternoon. Steady rain will taper off this evening as the
upper trough closes off into surface low and ejects into the
Gulf. Strong northerly flow will develop behind this system,
causing gusty northerly winds in Seward and easterly winds in
Whittier through tomorrow morning.

Sunday will finally provide a break from the active weather as
broader ridge fills in across the western mainland. This feature
will filter in much drier air across the region, causing any
lingering showers to fizzle out by noon. This will make way for
sunshine and warmer temps across the region. However, patchy fog
may be possible early Sunday morning for Anchorage, the Kenai
Peninsula, and the Susitna Valley as skies quickly clear out.

-CW

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues through Monday as a series of
lows and associated upper-level shortwaves move across the Bering
Sea and Southwest Alaska. The first system will gradually weaken
as it moves inland, while another stronger system develops over
the western Bering and track eastward through the weekend.

The first surface low continues to move inland across western
Alaska Saturday as its associated upper-level trough progresses
eastward. Steady rain will gradually taper from west to east
through Saturday, though showers will linger across portions of
Southwest Alaska behind the departing system. Winds will also
diminish as the low weakens inland, with the strongest winds
shifting away from the eastern Bering and Southwest coast.

Attention then turns to the next system developing over the
western Bering Saturday. A shortwave lifting out of the North
Pacific will interact with another disturbance moving east from
Kamchatka, allowing a surface low to organize and strengthen as
it tracks northeastward across the Bering. An unstable air mass
accompanying the system may support a slight chance of
thunderstorms over portions of the western Aleutians Saturday
before convection diminishes.

By Sunday, the surface low and associated upper-level circulation
become better organized over the Bering Sea. The tightening
pressure gradient will support increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds across much of the Bering and Aleutians, with
widespread small-craft and areas of gale-force winds possible.
Rain spreads eastward across the Bering and reaches the Southwest
Alaska coast Sunday before pushing farther inland Sunday night.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper-level low continues to deepen
while lifting northward toward the Bering Strait and western
Alaska. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave rotates around the southern
and eastern side of the circulation and moves into Southwest
Alaska. This will keep unsettled conditions in place through
Monday, with periods of rain continuing across much of Southwest
Alaska and showers persisting across the Bering and Aleutians.
Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will also continue across
portions of the Bering and Southwest coast before gradually easing
as the system shifts northward.

Overall, the progressive and active pattern continues through
Monday, with additional systems remaining over the North Pacific
and Bering Sea. Forecast details, particularly the strength and
track of the Sunday-Monday system and associated winds, will
continue to be refined as model agreement improves.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The pattern appears to remain active through the long-term period
over much of Southern Alaska. A relatively strong low pressure
system over the northern Bering Sea will exit to the northeast
into the Western Alaska mainland, but push a front through
Southwest and potentially Southcentral Alaska early next week. By
Tuesday, largely zonal flow establishes over much of the Bering
Sea, allowing for relatively less impactful conditions in the
area.

By Wednesday morning, model solutions continue to diverge, and
while both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern
Bering Sea, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, bringing
stronger winds and precipitation core dragged in from the northern
Pacific. The GFS solution is much more muted, with a weak low
pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds
and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC
however are more progressive, bringing the low into the
northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian
solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the
Western Aleutians. By Friday, agreement improves between model
solutions, with fair agreement that the low moves into the
eastern Bering, with all solutions also bringing the low`s depth
more in- line, and the low center over the Kuskokwim
Delta/Mekoryuk Island.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with intermittent rain showers and ceilings
near or above 5000 ft will prevail. Slight chance of very briefly
dropping to MVFR conditions during any locally heavier rain
showers. There is also a slight chance of a low stratus deck
moving in by 12z. Light winds will persist.


&&


$$