241
FXAK68 PAFC 171333
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKDT Sun May 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Windy conditions will diminish through this afternoon as the
front pushes onshore and dissipates. Moderate to heavy rainfall is
expected along the north Gulf coast this morning and early
afternoon before becoming lighter. Light rain spreads across the
rest of the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley by late this
morning. Anchorage and eastern Mat Valley are expected to remain
on the drier side, but could see isolated pockets of light rain.
Precipitation is also expected along terrain in the Copper River
Basin, though the valleys should remain precipitation-free.
While precipitation along the western KPen will diminish through
Monday morning, the north Gulf coast and Susitna Valley will
continue to see lingering rain through (at least) Monday night.
This is due to a triple point developing along the northeastern
portion of Kodiak Island on Monday. Another, separate triple point
low develops south of the Aleutian Chain on Monday, tracking
towards the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday morning. Its
associated front will shift into the southern Gulf of Alaska late
Monday night, bringing another round of rain to Kodiak Island.
The front moves toward the coast through Tuesday afternoon, likely
keeping persistent rainfall in place for coastal regions through
Tuesday. Small craft winds are expected across the Gulf of Alaska
and through the Barren Islands Monday night through Tuesday as
the front passes through.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper low remains over the Bering this morning, its front
now lifting into the Southcentral gulf coast. Ongoing scattered
showers will persist over the Bering and Aleutians, beneath the
low. Scattered shower chances will also continue across Southwest
Alaska, which remains downstream of the low in the path of
expected shortwaves. One such shortwave will track across the
Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska on Monday with a weak
surface low lifting along the Southwest coast. Expect to see an
uptick in southeasterly winds, especially out of the Kamishak Gap
up into the western Kuskokwim Valley late in the day. Late Tuesday
into Wednesday the next deepening upper low moves into the
Aleutians with a front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday
evening. While the current low over the Bering is weakening,
general troughing will continue to bring multiple disturbances
across the Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska on an almost daily
basis. Long term model guidance shows little to no change in the
overall pattern, with unsettled weather and rain chances
persisting into the latter half of next week.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next
week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much
of southern Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka,
though model guidance remains split on its track. The
European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the
Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the
Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled
conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as
this system and its associated front progress eastward through
Friday.

LM


&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Winds will turn northerly and diminish as the
southeasterly winds coming out of Turnagain Arm turn down Cook
Inlet by 13-15Z increasing the potential for LLWS as strong
southeasterly winds aloft continue over the Chugach Mountains.
Turnagain Arm winds will ramp back up by late Sunday morning or
early afternoon with south-southeasterly winds working back into
the terminal through Sunday night. Chances for rain showers
increase late Sunday as the upper trough lifts through.

&&


$$