038
FZAK80 PAFC 052240
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
140 PM AKDT Friday 5 December 2025

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 10 December 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas,
stretching southward through the Bering Strait. Weak low pressure is
over the Gulf of Alaska. A strong low pressure will develop in the
northern Gulf of Alaska on Saturday followed by another system
nearing the Panhandle on Monday. A weak front moves across the
Arctic Sunday through Tuesday.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 80 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 45 to 80 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will be generally light (10 kts or less)
and variable through Wednesday. A very cold arctic air mass will set
up over the area, so ice will continue to thicken, possibly into
first year thin stage, Beaufort wide by Wednesday. Existing
shorefast ice will remain, but further expansion is unlikely as we
have not had a long-duration compaction event to really encourage
ice to be bottom-fasted.


-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds continue through Sunday which
will encourage polynya development along the coast from Cape
Lisburne through Utqiagvik. A brief period of light southerly winds
on Sunday will give way to light northwesterly winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. The northwesterly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday will
encourage shorefast development along the northwestern coast of
Alaska as the pack gets compressed against the coastline.



-BERING SEA-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

The main ice edge in the Bering Sea extends from near Cape Newenham
to 60 12N 168 46W to 61 46N 169 9W to 62 21N 173 26W to 63
26N 173 29W and continues west in Russian waters. The ice edge is
open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Bering
Sea extends from near Cape Newenham to 40 west of Cape Mohican to 85
nm west of Hooper Bay to 95 nm south of Gambell to 50 nm southwest
of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open
water.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist through the
forecast period. Stronger offshore winds remain through Saturday
from the Kuskokwim Delta through Bristol Bay. Expect the ice edge to
advance southwest around 10-20 nm/day. A very cold interior arctic
air mass will pour off the land setting the stage for a period of
ice growth. The ice edge, while advancing is running up against
warmer sea surface temperatures in the 1 to 3 C range which will
limit new growth, but this air mass will help cool those down in
addition to ice advection into that water.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

The main ice edge in Cook Inlet extends from near Tyonek to 61 8N
150 36W to near Point Possession.  The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in Cook Inlet
extends from near Tyonek to 16 nm northeast of Tyonek to near Point
Possession. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
moderate. A much colder air mass will advect over Cook Inlet for the
next week. Expect much of the Upper Inlet to be frozen with new
grease ice by Monday with new ice along the coast from the east
Foreland through Kenai.

&&
Lawson