402
FXAK69 PAFG 240039
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
439 PM AKDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue tonight into Saturday, as
  rain/snow chances builds in west to east Saturday into Sunday
  along a front. Light precipitation amounts are expected over
  the weekend for most, with highest totals across the Northwest
  Interior.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning for
  the Alaska Range passes due to elevated southerly gap winds.
  Gusts up to around 65 mph are expected.

- Following the weekend system, another front will build in
  Monday into Monday night with widespread snow and a rain/snow
  mix across lower elevations farther south. Difficult travel
  conditions will result where rain freezes on road surfaces.

- Winds will ramp up regionwide on Monday (particularly across
  higher elevations), which could lead to blowing snow at times.

- Temperatures will see a gradual warming trend into early next
  week, as highs climb from the teens/20s today to 30s/40s by
  Monday. Overnight lows will also follow suit in warming trend
  following a cold start to the day out there this morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong Bering Sea low will continue to bring widespread
  rain/snow and gusty winds to Western Alaska tonight through
  Saturday, with blizzard conditions expected to gradually
  subside as snow transitions to rain along the West Coast.

- Water levels have risen along the West Coast and will peak
  today into Saturday. Wind gusts up to 50 to 70 mph have been
  observed today, with High Surf and Coastal Flood Advisories
  remaining in effect from the Yukon Delta north to the Western
  Arctic Coast. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for
  Hooper Bay where the most significant impacts are expected.

- Rain/snow chances will shift east into the Western Interior
  tonight into Saturday, as snow transitions to rain along the
  coast and continues through the weekend.

- While winds will peak today into tonight for most, expect
  continued breezy winds through the weekend which will keep
  water levels elevated along the West Coast.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast
  through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday
  and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of
  rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to
  Western Alaska.

- Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for the Kotzebue Sound
  region today to capture where the highest impacts are
  anticipated at this time with the Monday/Tuesday system.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as
  highs climb to the 30s/40s with lows in the 20s/30s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow and strong winds will continue to build into the
  Western Brooks Range today, shifting east into the Central
  Brooks Range tonight into Saturday. Across the Western Arctic
  Coast, snow and gusty winds will persist through the weekend.

- Additional snow amounts through the weekend will be around 5
  to 10 inches along the Dalton from Coldfoot to Atigun Pass,
  with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected at Anaktuvuk Pass and
  south of Galbraith to Atigun Pass. Snow amounts will remain
  light across the Western Arctic Coast, with dry conditions
  expected farther east.

- Gusty southerly winds, particularly over Atigun and Anaktuvuk
  Passes, could lead to significant blowing snow at times with
  localized blizzard conditions possible.

- Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift northeast
  through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into Monday
  and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of snow,
  gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf to far Northern
  Alaska. Snow may ultimately mix with rain as temperatures warm
  into next week.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into early next week as
  highs climb to the 20s/30s with lows in the 20s/30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active weather pattern will continue into early next
week, as a series of lows in the Bering Sea work to bring
rain/snow, gusty winds, coastal flooding/high surf, and warming
temperatures into Northern Alaska. Snow will transition to rain
along the West Coast later today into tonight as blizzard
conditions subside, with rain and snow chances shifting
northeast across the Interior over the weekend along a frontal
boundary. Another pair of strong Bering Sea lows will lift
northeast through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sunday into
Monday and again Monday into Tuesday, bringing another round of
rain/snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding/high surf expected
to Western Alaska. Across the Interior, this system will bring
widespread snow and gusty winds, with a rain/snow mix across
lower elevations farther south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
Satellite and radar imagery reveal the first of what will be
multiple systems to take aim at northern Alaska in the coming
days continuing to build into Northern Alaska. A strong front
continues to build into Western Alaska with the parent low
currently in the NW Bering and tracking towards the Gulf of
Anadyr. Wind gusts have peaked along the West Coast at around 50
to 70 mph, with gusty winds and snow leading to blizzard
conditions for many locations. Blizzard conditions will will
persist until warm air advection moving up along the front
results in a widespread changeover to rain near valley level
Friday evening through Saturday morning. Snow will persist for
areas of elevation, especially along the Brooks Range. The
result will be considerable snow accumulations for areas at
elevation, especially for mountainous regions, with snowfall
reaching in the central Brooks Range by Saturday morning, and
then persisting through the weekend.

The other big impact this system is bringing with it is minor
to moderate coastal flooding. Confidence has grown in most areas
seeing only limited impacts through Sunday, with Coastal Flood
Advisories for the southern Seward Peninsula and high surf
advisories for most other locations. The one exception is Hooper
Bay, where a Coastal Flood Warning is out for potential water
levels of 5 to 7 feet above mean high tide. More significant
impacts have been observed so far today in this community. Water
levels will reach their highest point between Friday afternoon
and early Saturday morning, with areas further south seeing
earlier high water times. However, elevated water levels will
remain through the weekend and into the start of next week as
more systems arrive and winds remain elevated.

As the current system decays, the next system arrives in force
on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches
across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical moisture,
alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought in by
the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and wind
event for most locations at or near valley level. The moisture
plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT values of ~700
kg/ms. This will have a strong SW flow component with it,
enabling it to thread its way through the Interior. Alongside a
renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range,
precipitation totals for areas south of the Brooks Range through
Tuesday will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. Any rain will fall on
top of pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder
weather returns late in the week. As of the latest model
guidance, we have seen a trend towards a colder solution with
the delayed onset of warm air advection, leading to more snow
than rain overall. Alongside the aforementioned concerns,
anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast
through the weekend, with attention turning to the
Monday/Tuesday low in the Bering/Chuckhi for a renewed push of
southwest flow and additional coastal concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Friday.
Throughout most of the period, upper-level ridging will persist
over the state, leading to temperatures decreasing. Southwest
flow will dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to
keep waters high for coastal communities south the the Bering
Strait and keeping coastal flooding a concern through mid-week.
A weak Bering low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing
quite a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope
into Thursday before another stronger system approaches the
state Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is
stronger, it isn`t as well organized with shortwave energy
spread out over the trough and not centralized. This is likely
to change in some way as it is towards the end of the period and
models have widespread differences.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A series of West Coast Storms will continue to impact Western
Alaska into early next week. Water levels will peak across the
West Coast between Friday and Saturday. Specific water levels
and timing of the highest water can be found at weather.gov/afg
in the hazard products (Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood
Advisories, and High Surf Advisories). The main area of concern
continues to be Hooper Bay where we have a Coastal Flood Warning
in effect and have seen a complete cut off from the community
to the airstrip early this afternoon, with conditions expected
to improve later today into tonight. Elsewhere, impacts will
remain highest where we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect
for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait region.
Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing against it
with some water spilling over them, but not inundating
structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next
week as we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of
southwest winds which should pool some water in Eastern Norton
Sound as well as other west/southwest facing coastlines.
Significant erosion over the long duration event is expected
over most of the West Coast early next week. As far as flooding,
uncertainty remains but there is some concern by Monday
afternoon and Tuesday, especially for the Kotzebue Sound region
where we have issued a Coastal Flood Watch. Stay tuned.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a series of strong storms in the Bering Sea continue to
support rain/snow into next week, we will be closely tracking
any atmospheric river moisture as it builds into Northern
Alaska. The track and timing of the heaviest rain/snow will
continue to be monitored over the coming days, with heaviest
totals expected across higher elevations of the West Coast and
in the Western/Central Brooks Range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ801.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through late
     Tuesday night for AKZ801-815>818-820.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ809.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday
     for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ813-814.
     Blizzard Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ815>818.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ815-817-818.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Sunday for AKZ819.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820-821.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ822.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ824.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ824.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ825.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825-826.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ828>830.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ831.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801-802-
     807-809-850-853-854-857-858.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-806-853.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803-805-807-852-
     855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ803-805-808-816-817-852.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ804-808>810-857.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804-
     808-817.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ804-811-855.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-812-
     851-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ810.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ860.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Spann/MacKay
LONG TERM......Lewis
COASTAL........MacKay
HYDROLOGY......MacKay