521
FXAK69 PAFG 031439
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
539 AM AKST Tue Mar 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Majority of the state will continue to see cold and dry conditions
for the most of the week. With the clear skies and increasing sun
angle, most of the state will continue to see a noticeable
diurnal in temperatures. Today, a weak Arctic shortwave will push
south over the NE Arctic Coast, increasing winds and bringing a
chance for reduced visibilities. An area of low pressure will
continue to linger over the YK-Delta, setting up the potential for
a couple of rounds of "wrap-around" snowfall into the Upper
Tanana Valley. These series of systems will increase the northerly
winds across the Bering Strait, which could lead to reduced
visibility from blowing snow. A more pronounced system is
expected to move up the Aleutians by the end of the week, which
may help moderate some of the unseasonably cold temperatures
across the state and isolated amounts of moderate to heavy
snowfall across portions of the Eastern Alaska Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Daytime high temperatures should warm into the single digits
  below zero thanks to increasing sun angles and sufficient
  daytime heating over the next few days. For those above 1500ft,
  expect highs near zero and lows in the teens below zero.

- A weak shortwave will move N/NE over the Upper Tanana, bringing
  a brief round of snow showers on Wednesday.

- Another system will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska
  Friday, bringing another chance for snowfall for most of the SE
  Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Anomalous cold continues across the West Coast with lows in the
  -20s and -30s along the coast and the -30s and -40s across the
  Western Interior.

- Northerly winds through the Bering Strait are expected to
  remain somewhat strong with sustained winds between 20-25 mph,
  gusting to 40-45 mph at times through Tuesday. Minor blowing
  snow conditions may develop due to plenty of fresh snow on the
  ground across the Seward Peninsula.

- Another round of strong north winds through the Strait are
  expected later this week and into the weekend, reintroducing
  blowing snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to
  the western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A shortwave will move south from the NE Arctic, providing some
  isolated snow showers across the North Slope. Winds are
  expected to increase for the NE Arctic coast, which could result
  in reduced visibilities through early Wednesday morning.

- While temperatures across the central and eastern North Slope
  will remain fairly steady the next few days, noticeably colder
  conditions will be setting in across western parts of the North
  Slope.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Persistence is holding strong for much of the forecast. A series
of closed-off lows continue to progress SE across the Canadian
Archipelago. A weak shortwave will extend over the NE Arctic
today, bringing another chance for scattered snow showers and
increased winds, which may reduce visibility at times.

Meanwhile, a closed low continues to amplify over the YK-Delta
with cold air being advected in from the NE. As the low continues
to strengthen, a weak shortwave embedded within the circulation
will move E/NE along the north coast of the Gulf of Alaska. This
will bring a chance for isolated snow showers to the Upper Tanana
throughout the day on Wednesday. The low is expected to continue
to rotate around Bristol Bay through the end of the week and begin
shifting a bit to the NE on Thursday as another shortwave will
work its way up the Aleutians. This will set up
south/southwesterly flow aloft, which will allow temperatures to
warm a bit by the start of the weekend. The associated warm front
will push north out of the gulf bringing the next round of snow
for the Upper Kuskokwim and the Interior. This may also set up
portions of the Eastern Alaska Range for a chance to receive
another round of moderate to heavy snow showers. In addition, wind
speeds at higher elevations will increase to around 25 to 35 mph
across the Central and Eastern Interior with the approaching
shortwave at the end of the week.

Looking back over the Bering Strait, with the strengthening low
and the shortwave moving up the Aleutians, this will tighten the
northerly gradient and allow for another round of blowing snow by
the start of the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As the shortwave progresses along the north coast of the Gulf of
Alaska, some weak ridging over the Arctic may play an important
role as to how far the moisture will move north. There is still a
bit of disagreement amongst the models. But wherever the front
stalls, areas underneath may receive snowfall for a prolonged
period of time as the low will continue to wrap moisture across
the Interior. That said, snowfall total remains uncertain at this
time.

A ridge will try to build up across the Bering as the shortwave
moves east. However, this is not expected to last as models are
showing the potential for a shortwave system to ride over top of
the ridge and progress over the West Coast by the middle of next
week. This may bring the next round of snowfall for portions of
the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
&&

$$

Twombly