893
FXAK69 PAFG 032325
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior

- Chilly overnight lows Saturday night will begin moderating
  through early next week as warmer weather moves up from the
  south.

- Winds increase in the AK Range Passes and at higher elevations
  in the Interior Saturday evening. Gusts up to 35 mph are
  expected through Sunday evening in the Interior/Windy Pass and
  through Monday afternoon in Isabel Pass.

- Light precipitation is set to return to the Eastern Interior
  Sunday morning through Monday morning, though precipitation
  chances stay largely north of FNSB and linger through mid-
  week.

 -Precipitation should mostly fall in the form of snow
  (accumulations less than/equal to 1"), with the exception of
  the Tanana Valley, which will switch to rain/mix Sunday
  afternoon/evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- After a brief dry spell through Sunday, light rain/snow showers
  return to the Southwest Coast/Interior Sunday night into
  Monday. Showers diminish quickly along the SW Coast, but
  remain across the interior through mid-week.

- Temperatures warm slightly throughout the weekend in the region,
  with high temperatures reaching the upper 30s/low 40s by
  Sunday afternoon. Temperatures cool down early next week.

- Winds along the West Coast and at high elevations in the
  Western Interior increase Saturday evening into Sunday, with
  gusts up to 30 mph expected through Sunday afternoon in the
  Interior and Monday morning for the Coast. Wind gusts offshore
  remain stronger through midweek.

- A system in the Bering Sea will bring wind gusts of 40-55 mph
  on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Showery precipitation lingers along the Northwest Arctic Coast
  and Western Brooks Range through early Sunday morning.

- Another round of snow is expected over the Eastern Brooks Range
  and North Slope starting Sunday night and continuing through
  midweek. 72 hour accumulations are 1-2" on the Eastern North
  Slope and 4-10" in the Eastern Brooks Range at elevation
  Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Significantly
  lower totals for valleys and less elevated areas.

- East/northeast winds increase along the Northwest Arctic
  Coast and in the Western Brooks Range Sunday night through
  Tuesday, with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly morning across much of Interior Alaska, temperatures
will begin to rise as a weak warm front in the Gulf of Alaska brings
southerly flow to the region. This front will also bring increasing
snow shower chances to the Northern Interior in the higher terrain,
as upslope flow will help wring out what little moisture remains.
Winds will begin to rise Monday and Tuesday across the West Coast
and North Slope as a Bering Sea Storm moves southeast from the
Bering and into the Gulf of Alaska. These gusty winds could bring
brief periods of blowing snow across the North Slope. Looking ahead
towards the end of next week a strong low will be moving into the
Bering bringing gusty winds, precipitation, and potential for
coastal impacts.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather returns for much of northern Alaska through the
remainder of the weekend and the first half of the week ahead as the
Pacific Jetstream steers further to the south, sending the strongest
storm systems racing through South Central and Southeast Alaska. As
of the time of writing, satellite and radar imagery show widespread
clearing spreading across northern Alaska, with an upper level ridge
building in through the interior and lasting through the weekend.
Lingering clouds across the eastern interior will depart through the
day, although a weak shortwave moving North along the NW Arctic
Coast will keep a few chances of showers and cloud cover present
through the remainder of Saturday.

The early season arctic airmass which brought brisk autumn
temperatures to the interior will be pushed pack through the
remainder of the weekend as a low advances out of the Gulf and into
South Central. The low has sent a warm front out racing ahead
of it which will successfully traverse the AK range and move
through our area early next week. While downsloping will prevent
most precipitation from reaching the ground for the Upper
Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country with this front,
locations further north will not prove so fortunate. In
particular the eastern half of the Brooks Range along with
locations like Fort Yukon, Stephen`s Village, and Beaver will
see light snow through Wednesday, with locations at elevation
seeing 4-10" during this time frame. Areas near valley floor
level, the North Slope, and along the Atigun Highway will see
significantly less snow, with a few inches expected. This band
of precipitation from the remnant front will also stretch into
the Western Interior. Am not anticipating much accumulation from
the snow or rain showers out West though, with upwards of 1" of
snow accumulation possible.

The ridge will be displaced through the first half of the week
as a shortwave arctic trough dives into the interior, though
expect this to have minimal impacts due to its lack of
corresponding moisture. Another low S of our area will begin
occluding and weakening over the northern Gulf of AK by mid-
week. Ridging begins building back in late Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of a strong low moving E out of the Kamchatka
Peninsula. For additional information, see the extended range
forecast.

Winds will be breezy along the West Coast on Saturday. After a
relative lull on Sunday, winds ramp back up to 20-30 kt sustained
out of the NNE Sunday night through Monday as the pressure gradient
from a low in the Alaska Peninsula encourages pressure gradient
forcing along its Western flank, aided by channeling from the
Bering Strait and the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended begins with the previous storm rapidly weakening in the
western Gulf of Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Soon after, a ridge will begin to move east through Alaska Thursday
morning, supporting a brief period of warmer and drier conditions.
On Thursday morning, there is guidance supporting a new storm
approaching the Bering Sea, which will continue to push the ridge
out of our area. While there is high confidence in a storm
approaching the Bering Sea during this time, there remains
disagreement on the track of this system.

Currently model guidances continues to support an arctic high moving
to the eastern Beaufort Sea. If this persists, the Bering Sea storm
will likely move further north. This would bring the potential for
strong wind gusts, and another round of precipitation to reach the
West Coast, YK-Delta, and Saint Lawerence Island. However, this
greatly depends on the arctic highs position as this storm
approaches. If the arctic high stalls over the Beaufort Sea and
doesn`t progress east, it could block this upcoming storm from
heading north. This would instead force the Bering Sea storm
southeasterly, lessening the severity of this systems impacts to our
area. Although the most recent model guidance has shown the high
moving east, there has been multiple changes between different model
runs, which limits the confidence we have in the impacts of this
upcoming storm. This system will continue to be monitored as models
adjust.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No coastal flood concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851>853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
     Sunday for PKZ854.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS.......DENNIS
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......DONNER
COASTAL........SPANN
HYDROLOGY......SPANN