640
FXAK69 PAFG 302227
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and occasional showers will continue for the
next several days across much of northern Alaska. There will some
scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the eastern Interior
while mainly rain showers will be scattered across the west coast
at times. There will even be a chance for some wintry conditions
with a rain/snow mix possible along the northwest Arctic coast
through Wednesday night. Temps will climb closer to normal levels
by the early stages of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers will continue the next few days across the
  Interior, with best chances for rain and isolated thunder for
  the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country.

- The chances for thunder will expand further north and west
  throughout the Interior by Thursday.

- Below normal temps generally in the 60`s will continue into the
  weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Additional rain chances returning this evening into Wednesday,
  for the northern portion of the West Coast, as another front
  approaches from the west.

- Chilly temps in the 40`s/50`s near the coast today with lower
  60`s over the western Interior. Temps stay cool near the coast
  but begin to modify for locations further inland Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Gusty northerly winds settle in across the West Coast by
  Wednesday night as lower pressure moves south from the Arctic
  towards the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- An arctic cold front near the northwest Arctic coast will result
  in falling temps over the next couple of days.

- Rain/snow will be possible across the western Brooks Range and
  western North Slope through the end of the week. A Winter
  Weather Advisory has been issued for a wintry mix of freezing
  rain and snow through Wednesday evening from Utqiagvik to Point
  Hope.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A general troughing pattern remains in place across Alaska as of
this afternoon with several closed upper circulations embedded
within the trough. As a result, a continuation of cooler than
normal conditions along with occasional showers will continue for
the next several days.

As for specifics, we are still tracking a closed upper low
situated over Prince William Sound as it makes it way to the
northern Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. This will keep an
easterly flow regime going across the eastern Interior the next
few days. The end result will be a slight uptick in temps through
Thursday as well as a gradual expansion of thunderstorm coverage
across the Interior. Thunder chances will continue to be highest
over the Upper Tanana and Fortymile region where decent rainfall
amounts could occur. While overall QPF elsewhere across the
Interior will be limited, isolated thunder probabilities will
increase a bit more for the central Interior and Yukon flats for
Thursday.

The other big feature we are tracking is a stronger Arctic trough
that is currently impinging upon the northwest Arctic Coastline
where a cold front is providing the focus for some scattered
showers this afternoon. As colder air filters in behind the front
a wintry mix of precipitation is expected to develop overnight
tonight and through the day Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued to account for this as up to a couple of inches of
snow could occur from Point Lay up to near Utqiagvik.

This arctic trough will transition into another closed low as it
progresses south through the Bering Strait and into the Bering
Sea by Thursday and Friday. While some additional showers will
occur throughout western parts of Alaska with this feature, the
most impactful aspect will be increased northerly winds along the
west Coast and a continuation of cooler than normal temps.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure over the majority of Alaska continues to keep any
particularly hot and dry weather at bay, although it will be
getting slightly warmer for most areas through the week. Daily
high temperatures will likely only be in the 60s for most of the
Interior again Tuesday. A more organized easterly wave will
continue building into the far Southeast Interior from the Yukon
tonight into Wednesday, supporting steadier rainfall for the
Eastern Alaska Range north through the Upper Tanana and Fortymile
along the Alcan Border. Additional amounts through Wednesday in
this region are expected to be around 0.25-0.75". Outside of this
region, a series of fronts building into Northwest Alaska will
support several rounds of mixed precipitation for the NW Arctic
Coast along with breezy winds for the Seward Peninsula and
Kobuk/Koyukuk Valleys today with gusts to around 15-25 mph.
Precipitation totals through Thursday will remain focused from the
Bering Strait north to the NW Arctic Coast with these fronts,
with totals around 0.25-0.50" northwest of Kotzebue.

For Wednesday, temperatures in the Interior will warm back up into
the 60s and 70s, but not much higher beyond that. Daily minimum
relative humidity will remain moderate, but decrease toward the 35-
40% mark through Wednesday. While winds will be light for most of
the Interior on Tuesday, winds in the northwest and southeast
corners will be notably stronger. In the northwest, southwesterly
winds will gust up to 20 mph in the valleys and close to 30 in
higher terrain. In the Upper Tanana Valley, northwest winds will
gust up to 30 mph. Wednesday, winds should become generally light
across the Interior. The Southeast Interior will clear out enough to
for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the main area of development reaching from the eastern Alaska
Range to the White Mountains to Fortymile Country. As evident this
afternoon with a single thunderstorm north of Anaktuvuk, very
isolated convection will be possible over the highest terrain
outside of the Southeast Interior. As systems shift around the
state, thunderstorm coverage moves to the Central Interior on
Thursday and toward the Western Interior and Seward Peninsula on
Friday. A series of lows working around the state will work to
continue to support precipitation chances heading into the weekend.

Overall, with cooler temperatures and higher RHs in place with
generally showery conditions, fire weather has moderated across our
region, with no significant warming and drying trend expected for at
least a week at this time.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rainfall over portions portions of the Brooks Range
has come to an end. Latest gauge observations show that levels
have dropped out of action stage as of today. Water levels are
expected to continue dropping over the next couple of days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... Friday through Monday.
The extended period begins with wind gusts on Friday that will be up
to 45 mph off the West Coast as a strong pressure gradient is formed
by a low off the Bering Sea and ridging over eastern Siberia.
Following this event winds are expected to be calm from Saturday to
Monday evening. In addition there will be some convective
development along the West Coast due to the proximity of the Bering
low through Saturday. As the Siberian ridge builds into the Chukchi
Sea it will force the persistent Alaskan trough to move southward
towards the Gulf of Alaska Friday evening into Saturday morning.
This pattern will create a drier environment by limiting the amount
of shortwaves that provided the energy for convective development
along the West Coast towards the end of the extended period. As this
pattern shifts we can expect temperatures to follow an increasing
trend to hopefully return to normal by the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Laney/MacKay/Donner