356
FXAK69 PAFG 061357
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
557 AM AKDT Wed May 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers along the North Slope continue through Thursday with
potential for significantly reduced visibility from blowing snow
along the Eastern Arctic Coast until winds diminish Thursday
morning. There are chances for rain and snow showers in the
Interior through the rest of the week. A cool and dry airmass
settles over Alaska resulting in below average temperatures for
most locations going into the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Expect scattered rain/snow in the Southern and Eastern Interior.
  Rain will be favored during the day with snow favored overnight
  and at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations are
  expected.

- Daytime high temperatures will be cooler through Saturday,
  likely only reaching the mid/upper 40s Wednesday and Thursday.
  Similarly, low temperatures will cool into the low 30s, allowing
  for some patchy areas of frost to develop overnight.

- Winds across the Interior will be westerly with occasional gusts
  up to 20 mph through Wednesday night. On Thursday, winds become
  light and northeasterly before restrengthening on Friday.


West Coast and Western Interior...

- A cool, dry air mass will settle over the western half of the
  state, resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend.
  High temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Western
  Interior Wednesday and Thursday and will be colder along the
  coast. Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward
  Pen and Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s in the Western Interior.

- North/northwest winds strengthen Wednesday afternoon along the
  Northwest Arctic Coast and Kotzebue Sound. On Thursday, strong
  northerly winds begin to develop through the Bering Strait,
  dropping slightly overnight Thursday before restrengthening
  again Friday with gusts up to 25 mph through the Strait.

- Dry air has cleared skies across most of Western Alaska.
  However, low stratus clouds are spread along parts of the coast
  and areas of low clouds will likely persist through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers continue in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and
  across the Eastern Arctic Coast through Thursday. Additional
  snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are possible on the eastern
  half of the North Slope by the end of the day Thursday.

- Total snow accumulations between 4 to 8 inches are possible
  through Atigun Pass as the frontal boundary stalls over the
  Central Brooks Range Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph will significantly reduce
  visibility east of Point Thomson with similar conditions to a
  lesser extent farther west along the coast. Winds will diminish
  Wednesday night.

- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will develop Thursday
  evening and strengthen gradually through Saturday morning. There
  may be enhanced northerly gap winds trough Central Brooks Range
  Passes on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph.

- Conditions begin to clear along the North Slope as high pressure
  descends from the Arctic on Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The big-picture upper-level pattern over Alaska this morning is a
548 decameter ridge over the Bering Sea and general troughing
over the mainland. Within the large-scale trough over Alaska are
two shortwave troughs, one over Cook Inlet and another over
Mackenzie Bay, and a 521 dam low over the western Arctic Coast.
Both of the shortwaves have associated surface lows, which will
result in areas of precipitation and gusty winds in the Southern
Interior and Western Arctic Coast. The low over Mackenzie Bay is
deeper and carrying more moisture, resulting in widespread snow
along the eastern half of the Brooks Range and North Slope, as
well as strong northerly winds through the Central and Eastern Brooks
Range and strong westerly winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast.
The low in South Central Alaska is less impressive, but it is
still supporting showers in the southern Interior and enhanced gap
winds through Isabel Pass. The impact of both these features will
diminish through the day Tuesday as they move to the northeast.

Thursday morning, the upper-level low descends into the Western
Interior, pulling cold, dry air over most of Western Alaska.
There are slight chances for precipitation in the Western Interior
along with the passage of the low, but accumulations are light. At
the surface, high pressure extends down into the Bering from the
Chukchi Sea, northerly winds begin to strengthen through the
Strait and into the Western Interior. That high builds in over
the entire North Slope resulting in northeasterly winds across most
of the Interior by Thursday afternoon. The exception will be the
last of some southerly winds in the southeast Interior. That
southerly flow will supply the eastern Interior with enough
moisture for some light showers on Thursday as well.

Friday the upper-level pattern remains mostly the same with a 523
dam low now over the southwest Interior, generally colder
temperatures through Northern Alaska and showers in the Eastern
Interior which could also expand to include the Central and
Eastern Brooks Range. However, a new low is approaching the Gulf
of Alaska from the South and the leading edge of that system looks
to begin impacting our area Friday afternoon. the initial impacts
being rain and a bump in temperatures in the Southeastern
Interior.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Saturday morning, dry
cold northerly air should still be keeping most of the North
Slope and West Coast regions free of precipitation. However, the
low in the Gulf will produce more widespread precipitation in the
Central and Eastern Interior as it approaches the coast. Models
predict snow in the Eastern Brooks Range and along the Eastern
Arctic Coast overnight Saturday and rain in the Interior. Lighter
showers continue in the Interior on Sunday, with the ECMWF
continuing to show decent lightning chances in the Southeast
Interior.

On Sunday and Monday ensemble model guidance keeps us in a
pattern of low pressure systems moving into Alaska as high
pressure tries to establish itself. This will likely mean more
active weather and cool to average temperatures for the start of
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ835.

PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
 Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
  Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.

&&

$$

TROYKE