875
FXAK69 PAFG 092220
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler conditons are expected today across southern portions of
the Interior. This will quickly switch back to a warming and
drying trend as an upper-level ridge builds up over eastern Alaska
through the start of the weekend. Southerly flow will return
across the eastern Alaska which will enhance the warming and
drying trend. In addition, this will allow for gap winds to
return to the Alaska Range by Saturday. Recent rainfall seen over
the Alaska Range have loosened soil and root systems, which could
lead to downed trees with the stronger winds. Broad troughing will
be setting up over western Alaska by the start of the weekend,
which will allow for wetting rains throughout the weekend for the
West Coast and Western Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Highs in the 70s and 80s are expected in the northern Interior,
  with a heat advisory in effect for the Yukon Flats where
  temperatures will reach around 85F. Temperatures will be cooler
  in the southern Interior today before warming into the mid 70s
  on Friday.

- Rain is expected to continue along southeastern portions of the
  Interior through the late afternoon with additional rainfall
  between 0.15" and 0.50" with the heaviest in the Alaska Range.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the White Mountains
  to Tanana northward and northern Fortymile Country and along the
  AlCan Border on today and Friday.

- Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will strengthen
  Saturday afternoon, with potential gusts up to 60 mph through
  Isabel and Windy Pass.

- Warming/drying trend expected this weekend with Saturday
  potentially being the warmest day so far this season.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures cool slightly with highs in the lower 70s in
  Interior valleys today. Along the coast, highs will be in the
  50s/60s.

- Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds with gusts up to 20 mph
  will be possible throughout the western Interior Valleys through
  tonight. Winds lull Friday before strengthening again Saturday
  with the next approaching low from the Bering.

- Fog and low stratus have moved in from the Bering along portions
  of the West Coast and will linger through the latter half of
  the week.

- Wetting rain expected across much of the area throughout the
  weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Warm temperatures persist through today. Highs warm into the 50s
  near Utqiagvik to around 80 in the Arctic Plains. A heat
  advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains through tonight.
  Max temperatures on the North Slope will be closer to 70 on
  Friday and Saturday, and into the 60s on Sunday.

- Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible in the
  Central Brooks Range and Arctic Plains today. Thunderstorm
  chances move to the eastern Brooks Range by Friday.

- Widespread rain will reach the Western Brooks Range from the
  south on Saturday and may continue into the Western North Slope
  on Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad area of directional
shear across the southern portion of the CWA, with values
increasing west to east. The upper-level pattern continues to
show a positively tilted ridge slowly building up through the end
of the week from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Eastern Brooks Range.
A weak shortwave will ride S-SW across the southeastern portions
of the Interior today. This will continue to provide the area with
persistent cloud cover through the early afternoon and another
chance of wetting rains across the Upper Tanana. Amounts are not
expected to be as much as what was seen Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, however 0.25" to 0.50" is currently expected.

With the ridge strengthening, this will bring a quick warmup in
temperatures across the Interior Friday and Saturday. Looking
west, broad troughing over the Bering will continue to hold strong
as a series of shortwaves moves down from Siberia. On Friday, a
shortwave will be moving eastward, on the north side of the
Aleutians, reaching Bristol Bay by the late evening. This will
bring in a swath of moisture across Western Alaska, bringing back
to back days of wetting rains over the weekend. Looking back
east, the progression of this shortwave will turn the ridge over
the Interior more meridional. This will set up southerly flow
across much of the eastern half of the state by the mid to late
weekend. This will help enforce the warming and drying pattern in
areas under the ridge, especially over the Yukon Flats and areas
just north of the Alaska Range with the help of downsloping. That
said, Saturday has the potential to be one of the warmest days so
far this season for some of these areas. One thing that could
limit the warmer temperatures is some energy from a shortwave
moving across the central portion of the state, that could bring
patchy cloud cover at times. Southerly flow over the Alaska Range
will allow for another round of gap winds through the passes on
Saturday. Models do not have much agreement when it comes to the
track of the previously mentioned shortwave, which will play a
role into how much of a southerly influence there will be across
the eastern portion of the state. In addition, history has shown
models to do poorly with ridge breakdown. With both of these in
mind, this will be closely monitored over the next several runs as
the slightest of change can result in different weather
conditions.

By the end of the weekend, broad troughing is looking to set up,
once again, over the western half of the state as more shortwaves
moves SE from Siberia. With this, a colder airmass has the
potential to move across portions of the West coast. This could
bring a chance for a rain/snow mix by the start of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Certainly, a complex fire weather season. Three primary synoptic
features will drive our fire weather concerns over the next 48
hours: the first being a broad longwave trough digging into the
Bering, and the second, a ridge of high pressure shifting into
Canada. Lastly, general troughing in the Gulf of Alaska will likely
serve as a source of moisture, with southeasterly waves moving
across the Yukon bringing continued chances for thunderstorms.

Touching on the trough first, this system will be largely
responsible for bringing wetter and cooler conditions into
lower/middle Yukon and west, particularly over the weekend where we
will likely see widespread rain. The heaviest rainfall will be
over the southwest and Seward Pen, shutting down fire weather. As
the west soaks, southerly winds increase across much of the AK
Range over the weekend, bringing warm temps to the Central
Interior and concerns for gap winds for Windy/Isabel; however,
amble wetting rains Thursday have moderated fire weather concerns
for the Tanana Flats. We may be a bit too optimistic on RH for
Delta Junction, we will watch how Friday pans out and work with
our fire partners at AFS as we assess fuels and moisture. Gusts 50
to 60 mph likely in Isabel Saturday into Sunday.

Also, focus continues to be on the ridge, with model guidance
starting to shift the ridge axis further into the eastern portion of
the state. This will bring continued concern for hot/dry across
the Yukon Flats, where isolated thunderstorm activity over the
next 48 hours could lay down some new ignitions or holdovers.
Saturday, thunderstorm outflow boundaries look particularly strong
over the Yukon Flats/Eastern Brooks. Stay tuned.

Troughing continues over the west next week. Extent/magnitude of
an area of high pressure over the eastern interior and how this
system brings inverted troughs and thunderstorms into the
southeastern interior, continues to serve as the main subject of
interest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
0.50" to 2.5" of rain fell overnight and this morning across much
of the southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. This will
cause some slight rises in water levels across the Tanana River
and its tributaries. Levels are expected to remain below Minor
Flood Stage, but will peak in action stage this weekend. The main
concern is water over gravel bars as of now.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A Bering Sea low is expected to continue transporting moisture over
Northern Alaska. By Monday afternoon, thunderstorm chances will have
almost entirely moved over the border into Canada. Models are
showing a slight indication of some instability over the high
terrain near Eagle as well as the Eastern Brooks Range. Storm
chances are expected to decrease over the next couple of days as
well. The highest accumulations are expected for the Brooks Range
and the Western Alaska Range through Tuesday, with the West Coast,
specifically near the Norton Sound, joining the mix by Wednesday.
Southerly gap winds are expected to pick up through the Alaska Range
passes by Tuesday morning with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

A cooling trend is likely to start by the end of the weekend and
continue throughout the week. The Interior is likely to see highs in
the low 70s with mid 50s to mid to upper 60s expected for the West
Coast and North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Heat Advisory for AKZ833.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Twombly
KEY MESSAGES...Twombly
SHORT TERM.....Twombly
FIRE WEATHER...Park
EXTENDED......Srinivasan