450
FXAK69 PAFG 012217
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An active pattern continues across a good portion of the state.
Southerly flow over the Alaska Range is expected to provide gusty
winds through the passes through Saturday afternoon. A series of
shortwaves will be moving north through the Interior and over the
Brooks Range through the end of the weekend. This will continue to
provide chances for precipitation across much of the Central and
Western Interior through the end of the weekend. These shortwaves
will also develop a low level jet across the state which may
allow for gusty conditions across the Interior on Saturday, which
will be dependent on where the rain showers occur. Another low
over the Bering Strait continues to spin, providing isolated areas
of rain/snow to portions of the northern West Coast. This low is
expected to move north along the Arctic Coast, bringing a cooler
air mass, down from Siberia, over the West Coast by the mid
weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Saturday afternoon.
  Wind gusts through the Alaska Range passes are expected to be
  as high as 75 mph. The strongest winds will occur through the
  early evening hours, tonight. A Wind Advisory is also in effect
  for Delta Junction for the same time period, with expected gusts
  around 55 mph.

- Winds will increase across the Interior on Saturday. Elevations
  above 1500ft could see gusts peaking around 40 mph with gusts
  to around 30 mph at lower elevations. The strongest winds will
  be in the afternoon, around peak heating.

- The next chance for scattered rain showers across the Interior
  will begin late tonight/early Saturday morning. Areas around the
  Alaska Range are expected to remain drier.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Precipitation is expected to persist across much of the West
  Coast over the next several days. Precipitation is expected to
  be mostly snow at higher elevations and in the overnight hours
  and mostly rain at lower elevations and during the day. Snow
  accumulations are more likely in the Nulato Hills and the hills
  north of Nome.

- Gusty winds will continue through much of the weekend with
  speeds between 25 and 35 mph. The higher wind speeds will be
  toward the northern portions of the West Coast.

- Temperatures will range from highs in the 30s/40s along the
  coast to 40s/50s farther inland with lows around 30.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Blizzard warning remains in effect for Point Lay through 7pm
  tonight.

- Another low will continue to bring rain/snow showers to the
  Western Brooks Range and North Slope, spreading eastward by
  early Saturday morning. Winds will increase as the precipitation
  begins with gusts up to around 35-45 mph for the Arctic Coast
  and higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Patchy areas of
  blowing snow could reduce visibility at times. Winds are
  expected to remain elevated through Saturday night.

- Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the rest of this
  week, ranging from highs in the 30s/40s for the Brooks Range and
  Western Arctic Coast to 20s/30s for the Arctic Coast and
  Plains. Lows will mostly be in the teens/20s to low 30s farther
  south.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A fairly active pattern remains in place as the last week in April
comes to an end. Southerly flow continues to dominate over much of
the state. Observations overnight showed gusts peaking around 73 mph
through both Isabel Pass and Windy Pass. Meanwhile, fresh snowfall
along the NW Arctic has allowed for late season blizzard conditions
over Point Lay.

As the weekend begins, much of the state will continue to be under
the influence of southerly to southwesterly flow aloft. This trough
has been tapping into a prominent atmospheric river that stretches
from the central portion of the state to the Northern Pacific Basin.
The upper-level shortwave, currently moving over the Alaska Range,
will continue to push north across the Yukon Flats to the eastern
Brooks Range. As this shortwave progresses, chances for
precipitation will occur beneath this area are an abundant amount of
moisture is available from the atmospheric river. A slight warm nose
bay set up from the down sloping across portions of the Arctic
Plains. This may allow for a chance for freezing drizzle during the
day on Saturday. As the shortwave lifts to the NE, the trough axis
will shift NE along with it, placing much of the state under the
southwesterly flow aloft. This shift will also increase the chances
for precipitation as a cold front moves eastward across the West
Coast Saturday night. In addition, a low level jet is expected to
set up by tomorrow morning, stretching from McGrath to the Yukon
Flats, bringing chances for gusty winds during the day. Any areas
that continue to see precipitation may not get as much surface
heating, which may limit how much of those strong winds reach the
surface. Elevations above 1500ft could see gusts peaking around 40
mph with gusts to around 30 mph at lower elevations. The strongest
winds will be in the afternoon, around peak heating.

Looking back over the Bering, an upper-level low will continue to
spin over the Bering Strait and begin to start shifting N/NE by
Saturday night. This is also the main driver that is bringing the
previously mentioned cold front across the state. With this low
moving north, portions of the West Coast and North Slope will see a
slight decrease in temperatures with a colder airmass moving SE from
Siberia. Some of the energy from this low moving up the Arctic Coast
will get wrapped back into another shortwave bringing the cold
airmass over the West Coast. In addition, another streamline of
vorticity will be moving north, with a SW-NE orientation, at the
same time as the next low works its way across the West Coast. This
will continue to support chances for isolated showers for the
Central and Western Interior through the end of the weekend. This
energy will be moving north with the help of another building ridge
over the Alaskan Panhandle. In addition, another low will be moving
north toward Kodiak Island by Monday afternoon. These could work
together to set up another round of gusty winds through the Alaska
Range and Tanana Valley by Tuesday. More on this in the extended
portion of the discussion.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As previously mentioned in the forecast discussion, a low will be
traveling northward along a ridge over northwest Canada, reaching
Prince William Sound on Tuesday. As a result, upper-level winds
will be angled southerly across the Alaska Range again Tuesday
morning. We expect gap winds through the Alaska Range to
strengthen, potentially to High Wind Warning criteria once again.
However, this low is fairly transitory meaning the strongest winds
should be less persistent going past Tuesday. In addition to the
strong winds, the low will bring widespread precipitation to the
Western and Central Interior. The eastern Interior should remain
drier due to downsloping from the Alaska Range. Precipitation
should continue north across the Brooks Range and North Slope by
the end of the Day Tuesday.

At this point, the upper-level and surface features of the low split
off from one another. The surface low spreads out across the north
slope and Canada, while the upper-level low gets tangled up with
another upper-level low over the northwest Arctic Coast. This
amalgamated low will linger over the West Coast resulting in colder
temperatures for the West Coast and Western Interior through the
rest of the extended period. Models diverge towards the end of the
week regarding the strength and path of the low, but the trend
appears to favor the GFS solution in which the low weakens and is
pushed to the northeast as high pressure looks to build in over the
majority of the state by the end of the week. As a result, we should
see generally warmer temperatures for most of Alaska by the end of
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ837-849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809>811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-815-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859>861.
&&

$$

Twombly
Extended - Troyke