794
FXAK69 PAFG 231210
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 AM AKDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Weather remains fairly quiet through the weekend.

- Low level clouds in the Interior clear through the day,
  temperatures will drop into the single digits for many spots
  tonight. Some of the coldest locations may be below zero.

- The next chance for precipitation will be Sunday afternoon
  with a mix of light rain and snow showers.

- A period of heavier rain near valley levels and snow at
  elevation is expected to begin Monday and linger through
  Tuesday.


West Coast and Western Interior...
- A strong low in the Bering Sea will bring gusty
  south/southeast wind and heavy snow/rain. Blizzard conditions
  expected for coastal areas north of the Yukon Delta on Friday
  as winds gust up to 60 mph. All snow below 1500ft elevation
  changes to rain Friday night.

- Water levels will rise with this storm across the West Coast.
  The highest impacts look to be in Hooper Bay. There will be
  more of an explanation in the Coastal Hazard section below as
  well as on our website weather.gov/afg.

- Snow is likely in the Western Interior on Friday with a few
  inches likely in the Yukon Valley and several inches in the
  Koyukuk and Kobuk Valleys. This also changes to mostly rain by
  Sunday.

- Another low arrives Sunday into Monday with southwest wind.
  While weaker than this current storm, it will still bring
  another round of heavy precipitation and coastal concerns.

-Another low arrives on Tuesday, with similar impacts to the
 Monday low.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Heavy snow likely in the Western Brooks Range Friday afternoon
  through Saturday. Snow and wind is likely in Point Hope with
  visibility restrictions expected. Southeast winds gust up to
  60 mph at times.

- Light snow expected along the rest of the Chukchi Sea Coast
  with southeast wind gusts up to 40 mph. Erosion of the beaches
  are expected Saturday through Sunday.

- Another low moves towards the region on Sunday bringing
  southwesterly wind, weaker than the first storm and another
  round of snow/rain, heavy at times to portions of the area.

- A third low arrives on Tuesday, bringing an additional round
  of southwest wind, and snow and rain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active weather pattern through the weekend and into next
week as system after system move into the Bering. The first low
moves through Friday through Sunday. The next system arrives
Sunday into Monday, and more continue to arrive in its wake
through the first half of the week. Coastal flooding, blizzard
conditions, accumulating snow, wind, and periods of heavy rain
will all be possible over the course of the next several days,
particularly along the West Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Satellite and radar imagery reveal the first of what will be
multiple systems to take aim at northern Alaska in the coming
days beginning to move into our area. A strong front is sweeping
into the West Coast as of the time of writing, with the parent
low currently in the NW Bering and tracking towards the Gulf of
Anadyr. Winds are already ramping up along the W Coast, and
snowfall has already started for some sites. Through the
remainder of the day on Friday, anticipate wind gusts for many
areas of the West Coast will reach 55 to 60 mph alongside
moderate to heavy snowfall. This will lead to Blizzard
conditions for many coastal areas, which will persist until warm
air advection moving up along the front results in a widespread
changeover to rain near valley level Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Snow will persist for areas of elevation,
especially along the Brooks Range. The result will be
considerable snow accumulations for areas at elevation,
especially for mountainous regions, with snowfall reaching in
the central Brooks Range by Saturday morning, and then
persisting through the weekend.

The other big impact this system is bringing with it is minor to
moderate coastal flooding. Confidence has grown in most areas
seeing only limited impacts through Sunday, with coastal flood
advisories for the southern Seward Peninsula and high surf
advisories for most other locations. The one exception is
Hooper Bay, where a coastal flood warning is out for potential
water levels of 5-7 ft above mean high tide. Water levels will
reach their highest point between Friday afternoon and early
Saturday morning, with areas further south seeing earlier high-
water times. However, elevated water levels will remain through
the weekend and into the start of next week as more systems
arrive.

As the current system decays, the next system arrives in force
on Sunday, moving up along an atmospheric river which stretches
across the North Pacific. Fueled by warmer subtropical
moisture, alongside the already existing warmer air mass brought
in by the first low, this system will be primarily a rain and
wind event for most locations at or near valley level. The
moisture plume with this system has fairly respectable IVT
values of ~700 kg/ms. This will have a strong SW flow component
with it, enabling it to thread its way through the Interior.
Alongside a renewed burst of snow for parts of the Brooks Range,
rainfall totals for areas S of the Brooks Range through Tuesday
will reach up to 0.25 to 1 inch. This rain will fall on top of
pre-existing snowpack, and will refreeze as colder weather
returns late in the week. Alongside the aforementioned concerns,
anticipate continuing high surf for much of the West Coast,
although the SW flow is not likely to be strong enough with this
system to bring any more substantial coastal impacts. For
additional information, see the long term forecast discussion.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Throughout most of the period, upper-level ridging will persist over
the state, leading to temperatures decreasing. Southwest flow will
dominate the West Coast, allowing for strong fetch to keep waters
high for coastal communities south the the Bering Strait and keeping
coastal flooding a concern through mid-week.

A weak Bering low will approach the state Wednesday, bringing quite
a bit of precipitation to the West Coast and North Slope into
Thursday before another stronger system approaches the state
Thursday afternoon/evening. Though this system is stronger, it isn`t
as well organized with shortwave energy spread out over the trough
and not centralized. This is likely to change in some way as it is
towards the end of the period and models have widespread differences.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
A series of West Coast Storms have begun impacting the area. Water
levels will rise and peak across the West Coast between Friday and
Saturday. Specific water levels and timing of the highest water can
be found at weather.gov/afg in the hazard products (Coastal Flood
Warning, Advisory and High Surf Advisories). The main area of
concern is Hooper Bay where we expect complete cut-off from the
community to the airstrip Friday morning and early afternoon.
Elsewhere, there will likely be standing water in spots, especially
Golovin and Teller but we are not anticipating any significant
flooding. Communities with seawalls likely see waves crashing
against it with some water spilling over them, but not inundating
structures.

Water levels will remain high through the weekend and into next week
as we then see another system moving in Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a long fetch of southwest winds
which should pool some water in Eastern Norton Sound as well as
other west/southwest facing coastlines. Significant erosion over the
long duration event is expected over most of the West Coast early
next week. As far as flooding, uncertain remains but there is some
concern by Monday afternoon and Tuesday. We will continue to update
throughout the event.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ801>803.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ809.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT Monday
     for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT
     Sunday for AKZ813-814.
     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ815>818.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Monday
     for AKZ815.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT
     Sunday for AKZ817-818.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Sunday for AKZ819.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ820>822.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ820>822.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ823.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ824.
     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ824.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ825.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ826.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ827.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ827.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ828>830.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM AKDT
     Monday for AKZ831.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Sunday for
     AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ801-
     802-806-814-853-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ801-802-813-853.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803-
     805-852-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ803>805-852-855.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ803-804-808-810-855-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804-
     855.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ806-856-859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ808-851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Saturday
     for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ810-811-814.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ812-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ813-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for
     PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ816-854.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817-850.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT early this morning for
     PKZ817-850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ817-858.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for
     PKZ852.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT Saturday
     for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Saturday for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Key Messages.........SPANN/BIANCO
Synopsis.............SPANN
Short Term...........SPANN
Long Term............LEWIS
Coastal..............LEWIS/BIANCO