740
FXAK69 PAFG 302315
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is lifting northeast across Alaska associated with a
storm system over the south-central Bering Sea. Mainly light rain
has spread northeast across the YK Delta and Seward Peninsula today
and will spread across much of the interior and West Coast tonight.
The upper level pattern amplifies on Sunday bringing additional rain
chances to the West Coast and Western Interior late Sunday through
Monday. Meanwhile, southerly flow brings an end to rain chances
across the eastern interior where temperatures warm through early
next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 0.5" to 1.25"
at lower elevations with locally higher amounts up to 2" possible
over the western Brooks Range and Seward Peninsula.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

 - Clouds and light rain chances return Saturday evening before
ending on Sunday across the eastern interior.

 - Warm southerly flow returns with the Eastern Interior warming
into the 60s and 70s. More clouds and occasional rain chances keep
temps in the 50s and 60s across the central interior.

 - Southerly winds gusting 30-50 mph through Isabel Pass Sunday
afternoon through Monday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...

 - Persistent southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
along the coast bring several rounds of light to moderate rainfall
through Tuesday night.

 - Total rainfall mainly between 0.5" and 1.25" with locally higher
amounts up to 2 inches possible at higher elevations.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

 - Gusty west winds diminish across the eastern North Slope this
evening with clearing skies resulting in temperatures dipping below
freezing for most locations tonight.

 - Southerly winds increase on Sunday with much warmer temperatures
expected through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the
50s are expected on Sunday and into the 60s by Monday.

 - Rain showers spread from west to east on Sunday through Tuesday
with over 0.5" expected between Point Hope and Wainwright.

&&

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A high pressure ridge is shifting east across most of Northern
Alaska this afternoon with light winds and partly to mostly cloudy
skies and seasonably chilly temperatures. However, southerly flow is
returning to the West Coast ahead of a broad area of low pressure
over the Bering Sea. A broad shield of clouds and rain spread
northeast across the YK Delta and Seward today associated with the
systems warm front. This front continues lifting north and east
across our area tonight into Monday bringing mainly light rain.
Increasing moisture within an increasingly amplified pattern allows
for persist light to occasionally moderate rainfall, mainly across
the West Coast and western interior where many locations pick up
0.5" to 1.25" of rainfall by Tuesday afternoon. High elevation
locations may receive up to 2" of rainfall. There may be a dry slot
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the primary low pressure finally
moving inland late on Tuesday. Farther east, southerly Chinook flow
scours out most of the moisture for the central and eastern Interior
and also allows for a warming trend with valley locations warming
into the 60s and 70s each day through the middle of next week.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

The Upper Tanana Valley remains relatively dry with warmer and drier
conditions than the rest of northern Alaska. Temperatures warm back
into the upper 60s to low 70s with min RHs perhaps dipping into the
upper 20%s. There aren`t many chances for rain, but winds remain
light away from Isabel Pass where southerly wind gusts increase into
the 30-50 mph range for Sunday through Monday night.

&&

HYDROLOGY...

A variety of flood products remain in effect due to flooding already
occurring and an incoming wave of rainfall tonight through at least
Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be lighter than what was
observed over the past week. However, adding more water to a system
that is already flooding will slow improvement and may result in
another period of rising water levels by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Recent heavy rainfall results in elevated water levels persisting
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro needs at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

There won`t be too much change to what we`re getting currently
across Northern Alaska. A low in the Bering Sea will provide more
rain to Western Alaska through the week, especially in the Western
Interior. From Monday to Friday, there will be an additional 0.50 to
1.50 inches of rain, widespread across Western Alaska. In the
Central and Eastern Interior, other than isolated showers Monday
morning and again on Wednesday, it will be mostly dry with chinook
flow and gusty winds through the Alaska Range. The Brooks Range
keeps chances for rain each day, especially on the southern slopes.
Scattered rain showers with some mixed snow possible all next week
on the North Slope.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Persistent southerly winds ahead of the next Bering Sea storm
results in water levels of 2-4 ft above normal high tides continuing
through Tuesday when the low pressure finally moves inland. A
longer southwesterly fetch on Tuesday may result in high surf
conditions.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803-805-806-850-852>854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
&&

$$
EK
Extended: Bianco