510
FXAK69 PAFG 091456
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
656 AM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal flooding, strong winds, and areas of heavy precipitation
continue across Northwestern Alaska. South of the Bering Strait,
most high winds and rain have weakened considerably or ended. The
low that brought the recent coastal storm is now over the Chukchi
Sea and will shift to the east while moving parallel to the
Arctic Coast as it leaves the area. Water levels should gradually
recede across the area as conditions improve. Moderate to heavy
snow will continue in the Brooks Range as cold air filters in from
the west around the south side of the exiting low over the
Arctic. The cooler airmass will support cooler temperatures across
the area to finish out the work week along with increasing snow
chances. A front from a system over the western Bering Friday will
bring strong southeast winds and additional rain to the West Coast
and adjacent waters on Friday ahead of the next storm. This next
storm is very likely to be stronger than the recent storm and
will bring a return of high winds, rain, and flooding potential to
the West Coast.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Moderate rainfall continues in the southeastern Interior this
  morning but will wind down by mid-afternoon. Otherwise,
  occasional showers with limited accumulations will be possible
  through Friday.

- Wind in the Interior will still be occasionally gusty,
  especially in the higher terrain, but generally weaker winds
  are expected today than yesterday, with a gradual decline
  expected.

- Saturday will be mostly dry, with heavier rain returning on
  Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- The low is shifting to the east to northeast across the Arctic,
  paralleling the coast.
    - The low has weakened significantly and is now in the Chukchi
      Sea. Most of the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds have
      ended south of the Bering Strait.
    - Rain and wind will gradually decrease through the day in
      Kotzebue Sound and along the Southern Chukchi Sea Coast.
    - A handful of south/southwest wind gusts to just over 40 mph are
      occurring at times over western parts of St. Lawrence
      Island, but most gusts elsewhere are to near or below 30
      mph.
    - Somewhat stronger gusts will continue but gradually
      diminish in typical windy spots/higher terrain in the Bering
      Strait Region, and Yukon Delta.
- Coastal impacts will be discussed in the "coastal hazard
  potential" section. BUT, Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories
  are issued and they have details about the flooding as well. -
  These can be found at weather.gov/afg
- The next system will be a strong warm front that will bring
  southeast winds gusting to 50 mph beginning Friday across St.
  Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta then moving north.
- This will bring a period of very low water before water rises
  even higher than the current storm over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Strong westerly winds continue across the Arctic Coast. These
  westerly winds will bring coastal flooding concerns and
  significant erosion. These concerns are highlighted in the
  Coastal Hazard Potential section.

- Widespread snow in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
  Slope will continue through Wednesday night. Scattered snow
  showers could persist into Friday.
    - Storm total snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches in
      Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 5 to 10 inches in Atigun
      Pass and potentially upwards of 18 inches in the Western
      Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.

- There will also be very strong south winds in Atigun Pass which
  will allow for significant blowing and/or drifting snow as well
  as very low visibility.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The 987 mb low over the Arctic about 100 nm north of Wainwright
will gradually drift east on a track parallel to the coast through
tomorrow while degenerating into an open wave. As this occurs,
rain and snow will continue across the Arctic Coast and the Brooks
Range, Strong, gusty west winds will continue, especially over
the eastern Arctic Coast where some gusts have exceeded 60 miles
per hour. As the low shifts east, winds will fall off from west to
east across the Chukchi coast and the North Slope, and
precipitation will come to an end.

A large low over the Northwest Pacific with a minimum pressure in
the 960s mb will enter the western Bering Sea by Friday
afternoon, with front extending east of it bringing strong
southeast offshore winds to the West Coast as well as additional
rainfall along it. The magnitude/extent of impacts will be much
lower than anything from the recent storm.

In the wake of the front, Ex-Typhoon Halong, now an extratropical
cyclone, will spin around the southeastern periphery of this
large low and enter the Bering Sea while rapidly intensifying
into the 940s or upper 930s mb. By Sunday, this storm will start
impacting much of the area with strong winds and heavy
precipitation while bringing a return of high waters and
potential coastal flood concerns. Most model guidance is
indicative of a strong storm regardless of the track. Among
recent global deterministic model runs (GFS, GEM, ECMWF), the
modal scenario brings the storm`s low-pressure center north
through the Bering Sea and over the eastern tip of Russia. In this
scenario, the storm drives gale-to-storm-force south winds (45 to
50+ knots) through the northeastern Bering and into Norton Sound,
the southern Seward Peninsula coast, and through the Bering
Strait into the Chukchi Sea. This could lead to significant water
rises in coastal areas. Other model runs have had the storm track
a bit more to the east or west, but there is very good agreement
on a strong storm affecting much of Western Alaska. While impacts
to individual towns or villages are still unclear, a significant
storm is expected.

The details for this impactful storm are not set in stone and
will change. Keep up to date with the forecast at weather.gov/afg.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025/

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 through 3...
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are in place for the coast
storm. The difference between warning/advisory doesn`t mean
"impactful/non-impactful". This WILL impact every community in
different ways, including significant flooding and/or significant
erosion. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding"
there will be significant impacts to beaches, air strips, dumps,
and more. Please see weather.gov/afg for the latest updates on the
ongoing and forecasted hazards associated with this powerful
storm.

We are expecting significant erosion for many communities along
the coast with coastal flooding likely, especially in more
vulnerable locations. Most, if not all communities will see some
sort of impact with this current storm.

We continue to monitor forecast guidance for an even more
powerful storm moving into the Southern Bering Sea on Saturday and
the Central Bering Sea and West Coast Saturday night and Sunday.
This second storm is expected to take a track that may impact many
of the same locations that are or will be impacted by today`s and
tonight`s storm. Please continue to monitor this second and
potentially even more powerful storm.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.

The cold front making its way across the West Coast will begin to
weaken into Saturday evening before another low coming up the
Bering Sea will begin to impact the West Coast Saturday evening.
This low will bring strong southerly wind gusts to the West Coast,
Alaska Range, St. Lawrence Island, and western Brooks Range
throughout the day on Sunday. This will bring more coastal
flooding concerns for areas on the West Coast and it may be
stronger then the one happening now. The Interior should remain
dry until Sunday as a cold front extends from the low, bringing
rain throughout the day.

A 950mb low will be making its way towards the West Coast with an
extended cold front bringing more rain and south/southwesterly
winds along the West Coast on Tuesday and persist through the
beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

We are expecting another coastal storm to impact Western Alaska
heading into Sunday and Monday, with additional details to come
into focus over the coming days. The overall model consensus
supports the remnants of Typhoon Halong moving east off the coast
of Japan into the Pacific, before sharply turning north into the
Bering Sea as it is works up along the western edge of a broad
ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Stay tuned over the
coming days for additional information regarding this storm.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801>803-815>818.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ821.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822-827.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ824.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ832-834-838-842.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813>815-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

DS