075
FXAK69 PAFG 262238
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
238 PM AKDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Wind gusts as high as 25 mph in the valleys and 35 in the
  higher terrain are expected Wednesday with widespread showers
  as a front continues to drift east through the day.

- Thursday is expected to be drier with mixed clouds/sun. Rain
  will likely make a return Friday morning as another low
  approaches from the Bering.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range
  passes overnight Thursday through much of Friday. Wind gusts
  up to 55 mph are expected to peak early Friday morning and
  slowly weaken through the day. A wind advisory has been
  issued.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s for much
  of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A low approaches the West Coast Thursday and is expected to
  bring gusty east to northeast winds and periods of moderate to
  heavy rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through
  Friday.

- Rainfall totals will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday/Friday
  for most of the Western Interior with the highest amounts in
  the YK Delta, Seward Peninsula, and the southern slopes of the
  Brooks Range.

- Winds gust 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast and as high as
  35 mph in some areas along the Western Interior as the low
  moves through the area Thursday PM.

- Highs remain in the low to mid 50s through the end of the
  week with some areas seeing as low as the upper 40s Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered rain (at lower elevations) and snow (at higher
  elevations) showers are expected to persist across the area
  through the end of the day Wednesday. Remaining snow
  accumulations up to 3 inches possible above 4000 feet.

- Another round of heavier rain and snow showers are expected
  Friday in the Central Brooks Range. Snow accumulations are
  expected mostly Friday morning with 2 to 5 inches expected
  above 3500 feet. This snow may melt somewhat in the afternoon.

- Highs in the upper 30s to the 40s Wednesday warm back into
  the 40s/50s by Friday except Atigun Pass which stays in the
  upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively benign weather expected through Wednesday as the
previous low exits the region and another low approaches the
West Coast Thursday. This next storm system is expected to bring
gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rain to the West
Coast, Western Interior, and Central Brooks Range. Snow is
possible at higher elevations in the Brooks Range and at the
highest points of the Interior with this system. Cool weather
follows this system and continues into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Wednesday, broad troughing
rests over much of Northern Alaska. A weak surface low with a
great deal of vorticity wrapped into it moves east through the
center of the trough. This is causing breezy and showery
conditions to sweep across the Interior Wednesday. Some weak
ridging over the Bering Sea allows for higher pressure to fill
in behind the low.

Thursday sees another Bering Sea storm approach the West Coast.
This one is a mess of several features. These include a larger
low to the west of majority of impacts, an occluded front that
connects this low to another, weaker, low farther east, and
then a warm and cold front that rotate around this more eastern
low. This messy system moves south of the Seward Peninsula from
the Western Bering Sea towards Western Alaska late Thursday
through Friday afternoon. Once over the mainland, it loses much
of its remaining organization Friday. At the upper levels the
lows lose their distinction and are absorbed into the broader
trough pattern but a rapidly weakening surface low will direct a
large amount of remaining moisture into the southern slopes of
the Central Brooks Range. Rising snow levels will cause much of
this precipitation to fall as rain, but some snow is possible
above 3500 feet Friday morning. This could make conditions
along the Dalton Highway near Atigun Pass worse Friday morning.
At this broad area of low surface pressure pushes inland Friday,
southerly winds increase through the Alaska Range Passes. These
winds will be primarily caused by pressure gradient forcing due
to higher pressure weakening more rapidly north of the Alaska
Range.

As this system exits to the northeast Saturday, higher pressure
once again attempts to build into the area from the high in the
North Pacific. A strong upper level low then seeks to push south
from the Arctic Ocean towards Northern Alaska which will quickly
end the higher pressure trend.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Saturday, a
strong and cold upper level low pushes southeast towards the
region from north of Eastern Siberia. This low will have to push
through the building ridge in the Bering Sea to reach the
mainland. There is some uncertainty on how well it will be able
to do this. It is currently more likely that the low will be
strong enough to push through the higher pressure over the
Bering and Interior and towards the Gulf of Alaska. Should this
be the case we can expect a quick rush of colder temperatures,
showers with snow at higher elevations, and some gusty
west/northwesterly winds.

It is possible that the ridge will keep the low trapped farther
north for a bit longer. This will keep cooler conditions more
confined to the northwest portions of the state with greater
snow accumulations possible in the Western Brooks Range. This is
currently the less likely solution for the extended forecast
period. This solution too sees the low eventually win out and so
the extended forecast period is likely to end with broad
troughing over the state leading to cool and showery weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No major concerns. The low approaching the West Coast Thursday
does not have a track that supports any impactful water level
rises. Water levels 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line
are possible along the Norton Sound Coast with up to 4 feet
above normal possible in the far eastern Norton Sound. There may
be some minor beach erosion possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cloudy, cool, and rainy weather continues to significantly limit any
remaining favorable fire weather potential in Northern Alaska.
Maximum temperatures are struggling to get above the mid 60s in even
the warmest areas through the rest of August. Thursday will be
relatively dry in the Interior, as showers from the previous system
disperse just in time for another wet system to arrive in Southwest
Alaska and spread across the state through the weekend.

Focusing on the upper Tanana Valley, gusty northwesterly winds are
expected Wednesday and early Thursday afternoon. Light chinooking
off the Alaska range may begin as early as late Thursday afternoon,
which would bump RHs down into the mid 30% range on Thursday.
Temperatures will be in the low 60s, preventing RHs from dropping
much lower. Winds will strengthen and reach their peak on Friday,
gusting over 50 mph through Windy and Isabel Pass, and around 20mph
for other parts of the Valley. However, the arrival of the wetter
air mass should work against chances for relative humidity below
40%. Rain will once again struggle to make its way into the upper
Tanana Valley, even as the widespread rain reaches the Interior on
Friday. Wetting rain will be possible, but not guaranteed Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across the West Coast and
Western Interior are expected to lead to some water level rises
across rivers in those regions, but no flooding is expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ801-850-851.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ802-816-817-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ803>806-852-854.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ805.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS...Stokes
SHORT TERM...Stokes
LONG TERM...Stokes
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke
HYDROLOGY...Stokes