167
FXAK69 PAFG 281500
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 AM AKDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Updated synopsis, key messages, and extended discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow and mixed precipitation will continue across the North Slope,
with multiple Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
currently in effect. The best chances for accumulating ice will be
in remote parts of the southwestern Arctic Plains and adjacent
slopes of the Brooks Range, where up to about a quarter inch of
accumulation will be possible. Elsewhere, rainy conditions will
continue along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range and the
western half of the Interior, and windy conditions will continue
through the Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction into
tomorrow morning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
 - Light rain in the Central Interior today, with scattered to
   isolated showers elsewhere, will spread east tonight into
   Friday.

 - Windy conditioms in spots, with wind gusts up to 60 mph in the
   Alaska Range Passes and up to 50 mph in Delta Junction through
   Friday.

 - This weekend will be a bit dreary with periods of clouds and
   chances for light rain as west/southwest flow returns,
   although it doesn`t appear like any particular day is a
   washout.

West Coast and Western Interior...
 - Rain continues along the Coast and in the Western Interior with
   another surge of rain today. Rainfall totals will be around
   0.50 to 1.25" in the Western Interior, with the highest
   amounts expected in the higher terrain.

 - A potential coastal system approaches this weekend with gusty
   winds along the coast and another round of rain.

 - Coastal impacts do not look significant.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
 - Rain persists over the southern slopes of the Western Brooks
   Range with up to 2 inches possible.

 - Wintry precip is likely. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter
   Storm Warnings are in effect.

 - Rain and snow will mix with freezing rain along the Dalton
   Highway. Up to 0.10" of ice accumulation is expected.

 - Heavier amounts of ice is expected tonight through tomorrow
   night with a late changeover back to snow tomorrow night and
   Friday. Ice accumulations up to 0.25" are expected, especially
   in the northern slopes of the Western Brooks Range and
   southeast of Umiat.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Rainfall which will initially move into Western Alaska with a
coastal storm Saturday will be ongoing on Sunday, with heavy rain
possible Sunday night into Monday across the Western Interior.
By the start of the extended forecast period, associated
south/southeast winds along the coast will have diminished, but
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will still be possible on the western YK
Delta. No significant coastal impacts are expected. Rain chances
persist through the end of the week, which rain chances returning
to the Interior by Tuesday afternoon and no end immediately in
sight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM AKDT Wed Aug 27 2025/

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A low over the Eastern Bering Sea is providing rain to the
Western Interior, Coast and Brooks Range. This is bringing strong
southerly flow over most of the state and warm air advection
aloft all the way to the Arctic Coast. The big story, other than
rain and river flooding, is freezing rain and snow in the Brooks
Range and along the North Slope. A surface high is providing a
cold northerly wind to much of the North Slope. Cold air at the
surface and warm air aloft is leading to a "textbook" example of
freezing rain and wintry precipitation today through Friday. Along
the Dalton Highway there has been light rain and snow with
temperatures hovering around 31 to 33 degrees. We are expecting
all of the precipitation from Anaktuvuk Pass northward to
transition to a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain and maybe even
some sleet. This will likely create slippery travel conditions
along the Dalton Highway. As far as Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, the
bulk of the freezing precipitation is expected tomorrow and can
make things slick with a glaze of ice, especially on elevated
surfaces. Otherwise, another round of precipitation will move into
the area tomorrow night through Friday, though this one will be
from Umiat southwest and we expect up to 0.25" of ice with the
heaviest amounts southwest of Umiat. This same area of
precipitation will allow for snow to develop over Utqiagvik and
the Chukchi Sea Coast Thursday night through Friday. Generally
light snow accumulations are expected (1 inch or less), but there
may be some localized areas of up to 3 inches.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns in Western or Central Alaska. The only
areas that we`re monitoring are the Southeast Interior and Upper
Tanana Valley where temperatures remain in the upper 60s to low
70s with min RHs in the mind 30% range. There aren`t many chances
for rain, but a front Friday afternoon into Saturday may bring a
few showers. Winds will be strong from the south in the Alaska
Range and Delta Junction with gusts of 55 to 65 mph (strongest
south of Delta Junction) through Friday. Otherwise, no
thunderstorms are expected.

HYDROLOGY...
The flood warnings for Slate Creek near coldfoot as well as the
Middle Fork of the Koyukuk is cancelled, water has receded. A
flood watch remains in effect for the Kobuk, Koyukuk and Noatak
Valleys through Friday. A new flood advisory is being issued for
the Kobuk River as water levels continue to rise. Rainfall will
continue in the Western Interior and especially the Western Brooks
Range with mostly 0.50 to 1.25" of rain possible, but isolated
locations in the Brooks Range may receive up to 2 inches.

After an abundance of rain, rivers will remain high through the
week and into the weekend with some flooding possible along rivers
and streams. Keep up to date with all hydro needs at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A storm entering the southern Bering Sea will bring stronger
south winds to the YK Delta Coast beginning Saturday. This system
will be monitored for further impacts to the West Coast of Alaska
over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849-850.
     Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ806-807.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ808-809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805>807-810-811-852>854-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

DS