881
FXAK69 PAFG 301440
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
640 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low centered in the Chukchi Sea north of the Bering Strait this
morning will track southeast across northern Alaska through Monday,
with rain/high elevation snow showers, breezy winds, and cooler
temperatures. Rainfall amounts are expected to be around 0.10-0.50"
for most locations, with locally higher totals around Delta Junction
and the Alaska Range of 0.50-1.00". A Winter Weather Advisory is now
in effect for the eastern Alaska Range from 12 AM tonight to 4 AM
Tuesday for snow accumulations along the Richardson Highway north of
Isabel Pass around 5-8" with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Conditions
will trend drier midweek across the Interior under the increasing
high pressure, as a series of shortwave troughs working over Western
Alaska and the North Slope will help keep rain/snow chances around
throughout the week. Looking ahead, a large low pressure system will
enter the Bering Sea on Wednesday, tracking northeast towards
western Alaska Thursday into Friday with atmospheric river moisture,
leading to another round of wind, rain, and high elevation snow.

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Rain returns today through Monday. A low moving southeast from
  the Chukchi Sea will bring another round of widespread rain
  across the Central and Eastern Interior.

- Rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches, with locally
  higher totals of 0.50-1.00 inch along the northern Alaska
  Range and areas around Delta Junction.

- Snow levels around 2-2,500 feet will support snow across
  higher elevations of the Interior, with totals of 5 to 8
  inches along the Richardson highway corridor north of Isabel
  Pass, locally higher above pass level.

- Breezy winds are expected later today into Monday. West to
  northwest winds will gust 25-35 mph across much of the
  Interior as the next system moves through.

- Cool conditions continue through Monday. Highs will generally
  remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the mid 30s
  to lower 40s. Clearing Monday night could allow for some
  isolated valleys to fall near freezing Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain returns today through Monday. A low moving southeast from
  the Chukchi Sea will bring another round of widespread rain
  and gusty winds across the West Coast and Western Interior.

- Expect rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.50 inches tonight
  through Monday. St Lawrence Island should remain mostly dry.
  Snow levels will fall to around 1-2,000 feet, allowing for
  light snow at higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula,
  Western Interior, and Brooks Range.

- Wind is likely to be the most noticeable impact along the
  coast. West/southwest winds transition to north/northwest
  Sunday with gusts peaking around 25-45 mph.

- Water levels are expected to rise 1-2 feet above normal high
  tide today into tonight across the West Coast, with the
  highest rises near two feet in the Kotzebue Sound and the far
  eastern coast of the Norton Sound.

- Temperatures fall behind the system, with highs dropping from
  the 50s to low 60s into the 40s to 50s, with overnight lows
  generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another low crossing the Chukchi Sea today will reinforce
  breezy and showery conditions across much of the North Slope
  through most of the week.

- Rainfall will generally be 0.10-0.50 inches through Monday,
  with the highest amounts further west. The eastern North Slope
  from Deadhorse to Kaktovik should be considerably drier,
  generally around a trace to 0.10 inches. Snow levels around
  1-2,000 feet will support snow in the Brooks Range, with
  roughly a trace to 2 inches.

- Winds increase with the incoming system with gusts of 15-30
  mph expected. The strongest winds are expected along the
  Arctic Coast and higher Brooks Range terrain.

- Highs will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday, dropping
  slightly to the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the week.
  Overnight lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some
  locations in the Brooks Range dropping into the 20s.

- Expect repeated showers through much of the week as additional
  disturbances continue to circulate around the lingering low
  pressure in the Arctic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a 995 mb surface low
centered in the Chukchi Sea north of the Bering Strait tracking
southeast, with broad troughing extending across the Bering Sea
and West Coast. Farther east, a departing trough over the Alcan
Border continues to trek into the Yukon, with a transitory ridge
of high pressure in between this trough and the system building
in from the Chukchi. Scattered to widespread rain and high
elevation snow showers will track across northern Alaska today
into Monday, as the main low moves strengthens as it moves into
the Gulf of Alaska. While precipitation amounts with this system
are expected to remain light overall, generally in that
0.10-0.50" range for most, wrap around bands of moisture and
northerly upslope flow into the Alaska Range will support higher
totals around Delta Junction and northern slopes of the Alaska
Range around 0.50-1.00".

CAMS and HREF ensemble data continues to support this trend well,
with the main differences centering around how broad the upslope
field is across the Alaska Range and how far north across the Tanana
Valley and higher terrain north end up seeing the higher totals.
Nonetheless, this corridor will be where we see precipitation stick
around most on Monday as drier conditions build in elsewhere with
more isolated rain and mountain snow showers. A Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect for the eastern Alaska Range from 12 AM
tonight to 4 AM Tuesday for snow accumulations along the Richardson
Highway north of Isabel Pass around 5-8" with wind gusts up to 40
mph. Main decision point here centered around the latest forecast
trending colder and wetter, which should support a changeover from
rain to snow tonight before staying predominant snow on Monday as
temperatures hover around freezing. Snow ratios will be around 10:1
or lower, supporting wet snow given the temperatures setup, with
snow levels in this corridor dropping to around 2000 to 2500 feet.
Snow totals elsewhere today into Monday will be light across higher
elevations of Western Alaska and the Interior, with around a T-2"
for the Brooks Range.

As the first low exits our region and moves into Southeast Alaska by
Tuesday, a few wrap around bands of moisture will help to keep
isolated to scattered rain and mountain snow showers across the
Interior and Alaska Range. At the same time, another H5 low and
associated broad trough will encompass the North Slope and High
Arctic region , while a H5 ridge lifts north from the Bering Sea
into Western Alaska. This setup will support a series of shortwave
propagating around each of these features, favoring isolated rain
showers across Western Alaska and scattered rain and snow showers
farther north in the Brooks Range and North Slope. Temperatures will
hold consistent overall early this week, with highs for most in the
40s/50s with lows in the 30s/40s, colder across higher elevations.
Lows in the 20s will also be possible in valleys that end up seeing
clearer skies over the coming nights.

Tuesday night will also feature a strong low pressure system
entering the Southern Bering Sea around the Western Aleutians, with
more details to follow on that storm in the long term discussion
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.
On Wednesday, broad upper level troughing will continue across the
North Slope as a ridge of high pressure begins shifting east across
Southwest Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. At the same time, a
low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea will be
strengthening as it meets colder air to the north, combining
with atmospheric river moisture that will track north from as a
far south as 20N to 30N. This low in the Bering will eject a
strong front towards Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
widespread rain and gusty winds, as the low center strengthens
to around 975-980 mb. While the low center will remain fairly
stationary farther west, impacts from the ejected front will
support wind gusts around 30-50 mph across Western Alaska and
through the Alaska Range passes on Wednesday, with preliminary
rainfall totals Wednesday and Thursday around 0.50-1.50" across
the Central/Western Interior and Western Alaska north to the
Brooks Range. Drier conditions are expected farther north across
the North Slope and Eastern Interior out closer to the Alcan
Border, with a rain snow mix expected across higher elevations.
Atmospheric river moisture will continue to stream into
Southwest Alaska on Friday, helping to keep scattered to
widespread showers around to finish out the work week. The low
itself meanders about in the Western Bering Sea through the end
of the week, potentially getting close enough to affect the West
Coast again Friday into Saturday, although it will likely have
weakened by then. Overall, temperatures will see a warming trend
through the extended forecast period with predominant southwest
flow allowing for highs in the 40s/50s to climb to the 50s/60s
mid to late week with overnight lows in the 30s/40s, colder in
the 20s/30s in the Brooks Range and North Slope.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
West/northwest winds Sunday into Monday with gusts up to around
25 to 45 mph will support onshore flow and minor coastal impacts
across the West Coast. Water levels for most communities will
reach 1-2 feet above the normal high tide. The Kotzebue Sound,
Bering Strait, and Interior Norton Sound are expected to see the
highest water level rises closer to 2 feet. Following this
system, attention then turns to a large low entering the Bering
Sea on Wednesday, tracking northeast towards western Alaska
Thursday into Friday. Details on the exact track, strength, and
impacts of this system will come into focus over the coming
days, with gusty winds and widespread rain being the primary
hazards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns remain low through early this week, as an
active and cooler weather pattern across northern Alaska keeps
unsettled conditions around. The first low moving through the
Interior will be from the Chukchi as it passes southeast towards the
Gulf of Alaska by Monday into Tuesday. Widespread wetting rains are
expected, with driest conditions around the Upper Tanana Valley,
Fortymile, and Yukon Flats. General rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.50
inches are expected, with 0.50 to 1.00 inches favored along the
northern slopes of the Alaska Range and around Delta Junction. Snow
levels with this event will drop to around 2-4000 feet, supporting
snow across higher elevations with heaviest totals in the Alaska
Range where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect north of Isabel
Pass for 5-8" of snow across higher elevations of the Richardson
Highway. West to northwest winds will increase tonight into Monday,
with gusts peaking between 20 and 40 mph, strongest across higher
elevations and the Upper Tanana Valley. Minimum relative humidity
values drop back to 40 to 50 percent in the Eastern Interior Tuesday
and Wednesday as conditions trend drier with more isolated rain
showers. We are tracking another strong low to move into the Bering
Sea midweek, with another round of widespread rain and gusty winds
expected to lift north towards our region. Details will come into
focus over the coming days, but fire weather concerns will continue
to remain minimal as we head into early September with limited to no
thunderstorm coverage expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain and high elevation snow is expected across northern
Alaska through Monday as a low from the Chukchi Sea works southeast
towards the Gulf of Alaska. Rainfall/SWE amounts around 0.10-0.50"
are expected for most locations, locally higher around Delta
Junction and in the Alaska Range around 0.50-1.00".

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT
     Tuesday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for
     PKZ801>803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for
     PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
     Monday for PKZ803-804.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ805>807-852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ808-
     809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for PKZ854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ855.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...Cruz
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......MacKay
COASTAL........MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay
HYDROLOGY......MacKay