985
FXAK69 PAFG 012211
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple weak disturbances bring chances for light to at times
moderate snow through Monday, especially across the northwest half
of Alaska. As of Saturday afternoon, an upper level low is centered
near Galena that tracks west-northwest this weekend and will be over
the Chukchi Sea by Monday morning. This low brings widespread light
snow to most of northwestern Alaska in addition to north winds
gusting up to 50 mph through the Bering Strait tonight. A secondary
upper level low pressure shifts east across the Bering Sea on Sunday
and spins up over the YK Delta on Monday. A frontal system
connecting these two features focuses snow showers along the West
Coast Sunday night and Monday. Additional light snow chances are
expected within the warm air advection regime over the southwestern
interior early next week. Steady easterly winds continue along the
Arctic Coast as a ridge of arctic high pressure builds southeast
across the Beaufort Sea through the middle of next week. Otherwise,
dry conditions and generally above normal temperatures are expected
to prevail across much of the east-central interior through Tuesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Afternoon snow showers diminish to flurries this evening with
little if any additional accumulation until Wednesday or Thursday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures prevail with highs mainly in the
20s and lows mainly in the teens. A gradual cooling trend is
expected through Tuesday.

- Breaks in cloud cover are expected across the southeastern
interior and temperatures should drop into the single digits at
night where clear skies occur.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds gusting up to 50 mph tonight for St. Lawrence
Island, the Bering Strait, and the western Capes diminish to near or
below 30 mph by Sunday evening. Scattered sea effect snow showers
accompany areas of gusty north winds.

- Areas of light snow shift west across most of the area tonight
through Sunday night. In general, 1-3 inches of snowfall are
expected for most locations by Monday morning, less around the
Kotzebue Sound.

- Below normal temperatures prevail for St. Lawrence Island, above
normal temperatures prevail across the western interior, and a trend
from above to near normal temperatures is expected for much of the
West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds gusting to 30-45 mph continue into Sunday
night while gradually backing easterly. The strongest gusts shift
from near Point Lisburne tonight to near Utqiagvik on Sunday.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers can be expected across the
North Slope through the weekend with up to 3 inches expected, mainly
across the south-central Slope and points eastward.

- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures prevail through Sunday
night. Clearer skies shift from east to west through the middle of
the week bringing cooler temperatures with temperatures dipping into
the single digits below 0F Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The synoptic scale pattern is generally characterized by troughing
along the West Coast and ridging across the Beaufort Sea into
western Canada. Generally warm and dry south-southeast flow prevails
across most of eastern Alaska through Wednesday as ridging builds SE
across the Beaufort Sea. A building ridge combined with decreasing
moisture allows for breaks in the clouds across eastern portions of
North Alaska and potential for locally colder areas under areas of
clear skies. Farther west, at least two upper level disturbances
bring chances for light snow through the middle of next week.

The primary upper level disturbance is a closed 500 mb low in the
vicinity of Galena that tracks west-northwest across the Chukchi Sea
by Monday. In addition to light snow chances across the western
interior and North Slope, this system also allows for gusty N to NE
winds up to around 45 mph to St. Lawrence Island and the Western
Alaskan Capes. As the first disturbances shifts WNW, another closed
low shifts southeast toward the YK Delta and lingers there for most
of next week. The disturbances is poorly organized resulting in
multiple periods of light snow that are difficult to resolve or
describe the details of. However, a general 1-3" of snow is expected
for most of western AK by Tuesday morning. The possible exception is
locations adjacent to Kotzebue Sound where less than an inch is
forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area and
is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
No major concerns for the foreseeable future. Northern Alaska will
keep a northwest to southeast oriented trough from Wednesday through
the end of the week. A couple of transient ridges will also move
from the Bering to the West Coast, then drop into the Gulf through
the week. This will give the potential for northerly flow and cooler
temperatures for much of Western Alaska. An Arctic high will also be
drifting southeast towards the Canadian Archipelago, bringing east
to northeast flow for much of the Interior and North Slope late this
week. 850 mb temperatures appear to cool to -10 to -20C which would
support surface temperatures in the single digits and teens for
highs. One feature that may try to act against the cooler air is a
low in the Gulf on Thursday, depending on the track it could bring
another surge of southeast flow, slightly warmer temperatures and
snow to the Central/Eastern Interior, though there is uncertainty
with this. Otherwise, the Arctic high and Gulf low interaction will
also play a critical role in the potential for strong easterly winds
along the Eastern Arctic Coast from Wednesday through Friday. Some
guidance is showing wind gusts as high as 65 mph in Barter Island
while others hint at 20 to 30 mph gusts. This will be monitored
closely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-810-816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811>814-851-857>860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-813-858>860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&

$$
Kutta/SCL: Synopsis
Kutta: Key Messages and Forecast Analysis
BB: Extended