683
FXAK69 PAFG 100051
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather continues across Interior Alaska, and especially for
the eastern half and within the Yukon Flats and Upper Tanana Valley,
with values dropping below -50F for a few locations this morning,
such as Chicken at -56F. Due to gusty winds up to around 40 to 45
mph and very cold temps, dangerously low wind chills will be felt
for locations along the Yukon riverbed to the AlCan border, such as
Eagle, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through tomorrow
morning for Forty Mile Country. The North Slope by contrast is
relatively warmer for today, with temperatures in the single digits
and teens above zero as a round of light snow shifts eastward across
the area through tomorrow morning. Thereafter, colder air moves in
behind a cold front, dropping much of the North Slope into the
negative teens for tomorrow. This will quickly change from Thursday
through the weekend as a low from Siberia transitions over the state
from west to east, bringing widespread snowfall of at least an inch,
and much warmer temperatures to Alaska north of the AK Range. The
colder air locked in place across much of the Interior will begin to
scatter out with southerly flow and warming temperatures ahead of
the approaching low pressure system for Thursday into Friday. On the
North Slope, winds will increase today, which could result in
blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times, especially where
they combine with falling snow. Very cold conditions settling in
over the region into early next week could drop temperatures into
the -40s or -50s in much of Eastern Alaska, even outside typical
cold spots.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold weather will continue across the Interior through
  tomorrow, and then begins to warm on Thursday into Friday. Cold
  valley locations will see lows in the -30s and -40s, with the
  Upper Tanana Valley falling to around -50F.

- Beginning on Thursday, another system will move into the area
  and yield snow totals widely of around 1 to 3 inches through the
  weekend, with higher totals of over 4 inches possible from the
  north slopes of the Western AK Range to the White Mountains.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are likely on Friday with this
  system, with highs widely rising into the positive single or
  double digits.

- Much colder air is going to settle back into the area,
  especially over the eastern half of the Interior, during the
  early part of next week, which may allow for even colder
  temperatures to be possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cold weather with lows in the negative teens and 20s will
  continue through tomorrow night ahead of the next system.

- From Thursday through the weekend, much warmer temperatures are
  expected, with increasing clouds and generally around 1-4
  inches of light snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow will continue across the eastern North Slope through
  tomorrow before colder air is ushered in by a cold front in its
  wake. Accumulations will generally be light.

- A more robust wave of snow is expected from Thursday into the
  weekend as a low moves along the Arctic coast. 2 to 4 inches of
  snow are widely possible across the area. Higher totals are
  possible in the Brooks Range and Arctic plains, mostly east of
  the Dalton Highway. Portions of the eastern Brooks Range
  southeast of Sagwon may also receive between 6-8 inches of snow.

- As the low moves along the coast, widespread winds of 25 to 35
  mph, with higher gusts, will shift from SW to W and could
  combine with falling/fresh snow to blow and reduce visibilities.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Currently, a weak shortwave is transitioning across the North slope
and providing some light snow showers. There is also an area of high
pressure located over western Canada and a decaying wave with an
associated area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has allowed
for the pressure gradient to tighten through the Yukon River and
Tanana River Valleys with a low-level jet present this morning,
which has been providing some strong and gusty winds for locations
from Delta Junction and Eagle. Because of the strong and gusty winds
up to 45 mph, coupled with the very cold actual air temperatures in
place, there has been very low wind chill values down to -55 for
these locations. As the gradient loosens by early tomorrow morning,
these winds will begin to diminish and allow for wind chill values
to also come down below the threshold. In addition, the troughing
over the North Slope has allowed for winds to become stronger and
gusty at times out of the southwest, and this may result in some
areas of blowing snow with reduced visibilities through tomorrow.
There are Special Weather Statements issued which highlight all of
these details. Models have continued to display a pattern change
with an area of low pressure approaching from Siberia, which will
allow for a return of some more mild temperatures as southerly flow
ahead of this system becomes predominant, with warming temperatures
beginning Thursday evening into Friday. This will also allow for
there to be a broad area of anywhere between 1 to 4 inches across
most portions of the Mainland, and even higher amounts for the
eastern Brooks Range, with some areas receiving up to 6-8 inches.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have been consistent in showing a large ridge
strengthening over the Bering Sea and over up into the Chukchi
Sea, and this will allow for much colder air advection to be
reinforced over the area. For the Interior, cold air will
reconsolidates, with widespread lows down into at least the -30s
and -40s F in the Central and Eastern Interior and the negative
teens in the Western Interior. Early next week, models depict a
strong ridge over the Bering Sea and Siberia with extensive and
very cold troughing over northwestern Canada. With a large, dry,
and very cold air mass aloft from Mon Dec 15 through at least Wed
Dec 17, where there could be -50s felt across much of the Eastern
Interior and eastern North Slope even outside of just the typical
cold spots.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ835.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Stewey