904
FXAK67 PAJK 031837 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
937 AM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation update for 18z TAF Issuance

Higher level clouds from an approaching front have started to push
into the panhandle as of 18z, with some very patchy fog also
showing up near the Stikine Delta by Wrangell and Petersburg.
Saturated lower levels in N Lynn Canal late this morning will
likely see little to no improvement before heavier rain and
stronger winds gradually move in later tonight. All in all no
major changes to the TAFs in terms of timing of the front or areas
where wind shear is expected to show up this afternoon lasting
into Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as
  multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of
  moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm
  force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday,
  Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow
  for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Tuesday
  night near White Pass.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...Mainly overcast skies
with spotty light showers or drizzle this morning across the
panhandle as upper level moisture has pushed off to the east with
lingering low-level moisture. A strengthening low working into
the NW Gulf will send a strong front through the Gulf that will
lift into the panhandle this afternoon and evening before
weakening overnight. The front will spread moderate to heavy rain
and bring gusty southeasterly winds over the panhandle this
afternoon into tonight. Stronger gusts 35 to 45 mph are expected
along the coast and into POW and Annette Islands. Rain amounts 0.5
to 1.25 inches through tonight. Snow is possible for the northern
highways. Little to no snow along the Haines Highway, but up to 5
inches possible near White Pass through tonight. On Wednesday,
another low will develop along the stalled front in the north
Pacific, lifting north over Haida Gwaii into the southern
panhandle and bringing another round of moderate to heavy rain,
while another front pivoting the low in the NW Gulf will bring
more rain for the rest of SE AK. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain is
possible for the southern panhandle Wednesday and Wednesday night,
with another 0.5 to 1 inches further northward. More snow is
expected near White Pass with around another 3 inches possible.
High temps will continue to be in the 40s today and tomorrow,
with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday to Monday/...Models are in fair agreement
that a short wave moving around the general large scale low over
the eastern Bering and SW Mainland of Alaska (the Delta regions).
As the short wave rotates into the far Western Gulf that spin up
a frontal band Thursday morning. A move developed low surface low
looks to curl into the gulf from the North Central pacific with a
strong near 970 mb low Thursday morning. As the low and its
associated frontal band lifts towards the Northeast gulf coast and
panhandle. With the latest set of data, increased the speeds that
there looks to be a small section of Storm force over the NE Gulf
but this would be for midday Thursday.

Panhandle stays in the wet side of the forecast with the front
pushing through, and wrap around the low pushes into the panhandle
of Friday. Longer range solutions are hinting at yet another low
pulling NE out of the Pacific to the panhandle late Friday and
Saturday, though the position of the rain focus and the timing are
in need of fine tuning through the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 12Z Wednesday/...Condition vary across the
panhandle early Tuesday morning as VFR to high end MVFR CIGs
prevail across most sites. Due to light winds at PAHN and PAGY,
CIGs sit between 800-1,300ft. PAKT is also seeing some low clouds
and fog as VIS sits at about 1/2SM. Conditions in these three
locations are likely to remain on the low side through the morning
and early afternoon before the incoming front moves through the
area. Across the panhandle, conditions are expected to generally
improve ahead of the front, with CIGs remaining high end MVFR to
VFR. Winds are likely to pick up this morning around 18Z across
much of the panhandle before rain moves into coastal sites around
21Z and arriving by 3Z to interior locations. This front is
expected to bring MVFR CIGs with periods of VIS dropping to 3-4SM
with heavy rain. Most deterioration in conditions is expected
toward the end of the period. LLWS is also expected at southern
coastal TAF sites beginning as early as 19Z and at interior
southern TAF sites between 2-6Z. LLWS could last through the end
of the period at interior locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
Winds and seas increasing this morning as the next strong front
lifts northeast through the Gulf today. Widespread S to SE-ly
gales and large seas 15 to 25+ ft expected. Storm force E-ly winds
are expected from Icy Bay to Cape Suckling. Winds and seas will
trend down tonight as behind the the front as it lifts into the
panhandle, however, remaining elevated through Wednesday. After
this brief improvement in marine conditions, another strong low
and front will lift northeast into the Gulf and bring widespread
gales to storm force winds and large seas Thursday into Friday.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Gentle to moderate winds through the inner channels this morning.
The next front moving through the Gulf will push into the
panhandle tonight. Winds and seas increase through the day with
fresh to strong SE-ly breezes developing by this afternoon and
continuing through tonight, with gales likely into Clarence
Strait. Large seas 8+ ft near ocean entrances and southern
Clarence Strait are also expected. A low lifting north over Haida
Gwaii towards the southern panhandle will keep strong breezes and
elevated seas into Clarence Strait on Wednesday, with more benign
conditions further north. Winds and seas begin to increase
Wednesday night in advance of another strong low and front that
will impact the region Thursday into Friday, bringing strong
breezes to gales.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ328.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-642>644-651-661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...DS

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