568
FXAK67 PAJK 100136
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
436 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SHORT TERM...The first major winter storm of the season is
largely behind us this Sunday afternoon, with many areas at or
near sea level reporting snow, even if only briefly. Along the Icy
Strait corridor, both Hoonah and Gustavus saw some minor snow
accumulations early Sunday morning, primarily driven by dynamic
cooling with the heavier precipitation rates. Some areas of Juneau
also had a wet and slushy start to the day, primarily seen on
elevated surfaces or vehicles in the Mendenhall Valley. Further
north along Lynn Canal, both Haines and Skagway have yet to see a
warm southerly push at the surface, therefore wet snow continues
to fall. For Haines, drainage flow down the Chilkat Valley
continues to keep the surface cold enough for wet snow to
accumulate, with a transition to more rain then snow, or straight
rain expected by this evening. A similar trend is expected for
Skagway, though northerly winds there are not as strong, and
therefore lower surface accumulations are expected at sea level.

Overall across the panhandle both surface winds and precipitation
will be on a downward trend overnight Sunday into Monday as a
quick moving ridge, serving as a buffer between systems, moves
over the panhandle. This is also expected to limit northerly
return flow in the inner channels ahead of the next gale force
front approaching Monday afternoon into Monday night.

This next system is largely lacking in upper level support, with
a deep upper level trough moving over the gulf, as well as mid
level steering flow being fairly stagnant. As a result, this low
is primarily expected to be on a downward trend in terms of
intensity and be fairly occluded by the time it meanders into the
northern gulf. However, as with this weekend storm, heavier
precipitation rates may once again lead to minor snow
accumulations at the surface for both Skagway and Haines Monday,
while being less likely for the Icy Strait corridor this time
around. Overall this storm is also expected to have much lower
storm totals since it will not have as much moisture to tap into
and will be weakening as it approaches. For more on what to
expect through the week, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...
As the low pressure system moves north and diminishes
through Tuesday, lingering showers will bring times of light
precipitation to the panhandle. Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions quickly develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system
moves to the south of the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow
and northerly winds across the inner channels as a high develops
over the Yukon. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales are
most likely, but the gradient could increase as we get closer.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. These temperatures are
nothing atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest
some places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The stronger the
outflow is, the more likely the chance for snow will be.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Tuesday/...An impactful weakening area of low
pressure is pushing its way northward, away from southeast Alaska
this evening. Some breezy conditions with primarily MVFR conditions
dipping into the IFR category for far northern areas experiencing
snow, early on, are in store this evening. Overnight, generally a
brief break will occur, decreasing wind speeds & LLWS values, &
giving us MVFR/IFR category range flight conditions. Breezy SFC
wind conditions out ahead of a new frontal system will approach
the region from the southwest on Monday, which will also end up
lowering flight conditions back to the MVFR/IFR range & increasing
winds, once again. LLWS magnitudes up to around 35 kt are in
store out of a generally southerly direction, centered up at
around 2 kft, with the highest values the farther south in the
panhandle & the nearer to the Outer Coast that you go.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A strong low that brought high winds to
a majority of the panhandle continues to weaken and lift inland
over the panhandle Sunday afternoon. W gale force winds (35 kt)
will continue through the evening hours for most areas as the W
flow on the south side of the low takes over as the low moves into
the Yukon. Into tonight expect a diminishing trend in wind and
waves and a shift to southerly for wind direction before the next
front arrives Monday from the W bringing more gale force winds and
building seas upwards of 20 ft.

Inside Waters: With the low both aloft and at the surface finally
pushing into the panhandle Sunday afternoon, stronger southerly
winds in the south have progressed up to the Icy Strait corridor,
with Cross Sound flipping out of the West as of 4pm. These
westerly winds will continue Sunday night, diminishing into Monday
morning as the gradient slackens and eventually flips again with
the next approaching gale force front Monday night. The far
northern panhandle is still awaiting the southerly push, with Lynn
Canal continuing to blow out of the north around 15 kt. This flip
is expected by the early evening with winds reaching 25 to 30 kt.
Seas will mainly range around 4 to 6 ft with higher seas near
ocean entrances. Winds and seas should then start a gradual
diminishing trend late tonight into early Monday before starting
to increase again Monday afternoon as the next front pushes into
the panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The heaviest rainfall and primary moisture transport
into the region has been progressively moving eastward through
Sunday afternoon. Lingering moderate to heavy rain showers on the
backside of the front will persist through the evening hours
particularly for the southern panhandle, where a flood advisory
remains in effect through Sunday evening for flooding due to
excessive rainfall for the Ward Lake recreation area in the
vicinity of Lake Connell Dam.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ323-327-328.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053-651.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...STJ

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