570
FXAK67 PAJK 171804
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1004 AM AKDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.SHORT TERM...On the cusp of the weekend, Friday this week will
look very similar to Thursday in terms of winds, rain, and cloud
cover over the region. A short wave trough extending from a low
circulation in the northern gulf will continue to provide
sufficient vertical motion and instability for convective showers
to flow into the panhandle throughout the day. While the greatest
chance for thunder will remain along the outer coast as showers
encounter mountainous terrain moving inland, some of these may
survive long enough to bring some rumbles to the inner channel
communities as well. Probability of thunderstorms and heavier
convective showers will increase with daytime heating Friday,
however by early evening they will then begin a downward trend as
a fast moving short wave ridge displaces the trough over the
region, followed by an occluding front. This gale force front will
push up into the panhandle from the south late Friday night into
Saturday as the parent low pressure system slides eastward along
the southern gulf towards Haida Gwaii. Despite relative saturation
of the lower levels from constant showers, elevated surface winds
as well as cloud cover will serve to limit any significant fog
development Friday morning and likewise will do so Friday night.

As of this forecast, the front is expected to bring periods of
moderate to heavy rain from the far southern panhandle northward
to Frederick Sound and southern Chatham Strait before losing
momentum. With the short wave ridge moving out ahead of it, winds
in the central and northern inner channels will eventually shift
out of the north late Friday night. This northerly shift is
expected to limit the northward progression of the heavier
precipitation, while lighter stratiform precipitation is expected
to make it as far northward as the Icy Strait corridor, with gusty
winds at the surface as well. While communities at sea level will
just see rain from these showers and stratiform precipitation
from the front, higher elevations along the Klondike Highway will
likely remain cold enough to see some more slushy snow
accumulation. For more information on what to expect this weekend,
see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/...After a brief lull in
the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves just south
of the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds
up to around 35 to 40 kt & enhanced seas as it pushes by for the
SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels,
particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy
for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday
afternoon, after the low has pushed closest to the SE Gulf, it
will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing
winds over the SE gulf to only as high as around 20 to 25 kt
through Sunday night. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday
afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25
kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time
associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in
the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for
the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this
low. Flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time as this
low is rather quick-moving. After a break between weather systems
on Sunday, another borderline gale force frontal system moves in
for late Sunday night through early next week, which will bring
enhanced wind & seas & light to moderate rainfall. For mainly
during the day on Saturday, Sunday night, & into Monday morning,
some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the
higher elevations along the Klondike Highway & potentially along
the Haines Highway near the border as snow levels will be low
enough & SFC temperatures will be cold enough.

&&

.AVIATION...A post-frontal shortwave that moved over the panhandle
early this morning is continuing moist onshore flow in its wake,
allowing showers to continue popping up through Friday. Varying
VFR to MVFR conditions will occur through the day with CIGs around
3000 ft and VIS of 4 to 6 SM. Conditions will worsen as showers
develop and move over the area, bringing moderate to heavy rain at
times with gusty winds up to 25 kts and solidly MVFR CIGs.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the day and attempt to
push into the panhandle, but confidence on timing and location is
not high enough to include in the TAFs. Lingering LLWS will
diminish this morning in the wake of the shortwave, while
lingering for PAYA into the afternoon. Conditions are expected to
improve through the period before another front spreads north
across the southern and central panhandle late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Expect MVFR to at times IFR flight conditions,
with gusty winds increasing and LLWS developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside waters: Onshore flow continues for the area with near
gales for the offshore waters and fresh to strong breezes closer
to shore. With the SW winds and swell direction, seas are
currently running around 22 ft and a period of 15 seconds out in
the central and northeast Gulf. Closer to shore, wave heights at
the Cape Edgecumbe buoy are up to around 25 ft and period of 15
seconds at the time of writing. These conditions are expected to
continue, with seas gradually subsiding to 14 ft or less by
tonight. For Friday, the swell component is expected to remain the
dominating factor for seas and gradually diminish through the
afternoon and evening hours. Headed into the weekend, another gale
force low looks to enter the area from the south before moving to
the east.

Inside waters: Conditions across the Inner Channels this morning
are very location dependent. Some observations across the Inner
Channels continue to show fresh to strong breezes with some
pockets of near gales, such as Point Couverden, while other
channels continue to report light winds of 10 kt or less. While
westerly onshore flow is expected to pick up this morning through
Icy Strait and Cross Sound, overall flow will gradually slacken
this evening and shift to offshore late tonight into Saturday.
This wind shift will be a result of an approaching gale force
front extending from a low that is advancing eastward across the
southern gulf. Winds are expected to flip around to more of a
northerly and easterly component, with gale force winds pushing
into the area of Dixon Entrance. Elsewhere, winds are expected to
increase to strong breezes (22 to 27 kt) with some near gales
possible in Clarence Strait early Saturday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-035-053-643-644-651-652-
     664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ

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