733
FXAK67 PAJK 130059 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 PM AKDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through the day, with
  afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- High pressure remains through the rest of the weekend with drier
  weather, partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid
  60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ through Monday night / High pressure remains over the
Gulf of Alaska and Northeast Pacific. Flow pattern runs along the
Central Gulf Coast and then southeast along and over the panhandle
region.

A short wave in the mid levels is moving southeast over the
panhandle, and should exit the area by Sunday morning, but this is
only spreading a few higher clouds across the area. The overall
westerly flow will continue for the next couple of days and appears
to be fairly zonal so rather progressive flow at mid levels. Small
troughs and or vorticity lobes moving through will create the
isolated cloud cover at the mid and higher level over the next day
or so. At the lower level there is a marine layer with tops to maybe
4000 feet along the NE gulf coast and then South towards Dixon
Entrance. Think it may push back into the Yakutat area and Cross
Sound possibly to the Gustavus area tonight. Could potentially reach
the outer island of Prince of Wales too. Patchy fog that may be
locally dense could be found under the marine deck.



.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...High pressure persists
over the Gulf of Alaska, continuing to keep the region seasonably
dry and warm. Beginning Monday, an impactful Bering Sea low
pressure system tracking east across western and central mainland
Alaska will send several fronts across the northern half of the
region, bringing increasing chances of light rain through the
week. Expect an initial, lighter pass of showers on Tuesday, with
precipitation amounts increasing as a secondary front pushes in by
Wednesday morning along the NE Gulf Coast, where it is likely to
see the greatest amounts. While 24-hour rainfall totals are
trending higher with recent model runs, guidance spread remains.
Some areas, like Yakutat, could see locally heavy rainfall
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The high pressure ridge is expected to weaken as the low pressure
system approaches from the west. Northwest flow along the ridge axis
will transport a moisture plume originating from Tropical Storm
Lowell into the northern region and could increase wind speeds along
exposed prominent capes by Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens. Also with this pattern, winds are likely to strengthen
near Skagway as these fronts pass. Increased cloud cover in the
north will bring slightly cooler afternoon highs alongside mild
overnight lows, while the southern panhandle stays mostly sunny with
highs remaining in the mid to high 60s. Some guidance is starting
to pick up on additional activity later in the week, though
outside of the current forecast period. Stay tuned for more
information as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 0z Monday/...VFR conditions continue for a
majority of the panhandle with clear skies and light winds
through the afternoon. Local sea breezes have increased to 5 to 10
kts across the panhandle which will decrease through the evening,
with most locations becoming light and variable overnight. Skies
will remain relatively clear through the period, with high, thin
FEW and SCT layers expected to filter over the northern half of
the panhandle overnight.

The one exception to this is locations along the coast that may
be impacted by the marine layer in the gulf. The marine layer in
Yakutat has lifted to around 2000ft and remains near the coast,
but is expected to push inland again overnight with LIFR
conditions. Expecting the possibility of low CIGs making it into
Gustavus, as well as communities along the gulf coast such as
Sitka and Klawock through the early morning hours starting around
11z.

&&

.MARINE...
Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with the
persistent message of high pressure dominating the Gulf through
the rest of the weekend bringing winds generally out of the W-NW.
Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly
component to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the
coast and outer water from the westerly swell moving through the
area. As the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the
central and southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt
while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds
remaining around 10-15 kt.

Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel
weather hazards through the weekend. A marine layer out in the gulf
is expected to redevelop near Cross Sound and encroach its way into
W Icy Strait and S Glacier Bay Sunday morning and begin to thin out
by the late morning further inland. Winds will remain light through
much of Sunday, outside the typical afternoon seabreeze influences.
As previously forecast, a wind shift out of the south has occurred
for the northern inner channels as of this discussion and is
expected to persist through the early evening hours before
weakening. Winds overnight are expected to become light and
variable, with some northerly component near Taiya Inlet from
interior drainage winds. A similar story is expected to play out
Sunday with winds picking up with developing sea breezes by the
afternoon and then gradual weakening overnight into Monday. For
Sunday overall winds will remain around 10 kt or less, with a
sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours in the afternoon
before quickly diminishing into the evening back to calm and
variable. Wave heights follow suit to lightening winds, 0 to 3 ft.
Overall, will likely be a nice couple of days to get out on the
water heading into early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ

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