


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
570 FXAK67 PAJK 171804 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1004 AM AKDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance... && .SHORT TERM...On the cusp of the weekend, Friday this week will look very similar to Thursday in terms of winds, rain, and cloud cover over the region. A short wave trough extending from a low circulation in the northern gulf will continue to provide sufficient vertical motion and instability for convective showers to flow into the panhandle throughout the day. While the greatest chance for thunder will remain along the outer coast as showers encounter mountainous terrain moving inland, some of these may survive long enough to bring some rumbles to the inner channel communities as well. Probability of thunderstorms and heavier convective showers will increase with daytime heating Friday, however by early evening they will then begin a downward trend as a fast moving short wave ridge displaces the trough over the region, followed by an occluding front. This gale force front will push up into the panhandle from the south late Friday night into Saturday as the parent low pressure system slides eastward along the southern gulf towards Haida Gwaii. Despite relative saturation of the lower levels from constant showers, elevated surface winds as well as cloud cover will serve to limit any significant fog development Friday morning and likewise will do so Friday night. As of this forecast, the front is expected to bring periods of moderate to heavy rain from the far southern panhandle northward to Frederick Sound and southern Chatham Strait before losing momentum. With the short wave ridge moving out ahead of it, winds in the central and northern inner channels will eventually shift out of the north late Friday night. This northerly shift is expected to limit the northward progression of the heavier precipitation, while lighter stratiform precipitation is expected to make it as far northward as the Icy Strait corridor, with gusty winds at the surface as well. While communities at sea level will just see rain from these showers and stratiform precipitation from the front, higher elevations along the Klondike Highway will likely remain cold enough to see some more slushy snow accumulation. For more information on what to expect this weekend, see the long term discussion. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/...After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves just south of the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt & enhanced seas as it pushes by for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels, particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday afternoon, after the low has pushed closest to the SE Gulf, it will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to only as high as around 20 to 25 kt through Sunday night. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. Flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time as this low is rather quick-moving. After a break between weather systems on Sunday, another borderline gale force frontal system moves in for late Sunday night through early next week, which will bring enhanced wind & seas & light to moderate rainfall. For mainly during the day on Saturday, Sunday night, & into Monday morning, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway & potentially along the Haines Highway near the border as snow levels will be low enough & SFC temperatures will be cold enough. && .AVIATION...A post-frontal shortwave that moved over the panhandle early this morning is continuing moist onshore flow in its wake, allowing showers to continue popping up through Friday. Varying VFR to MVFR conditions will occur through the day with CIGs around 3000 ft and VIS of 4 to 6 SM. Conditions will worsen as showers develop and move over the area, bringing moderate to heavy rain at times with gusty winds up to 25 kts and solidly MVFR CIGs. Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the day and attempt to push into the panhandle, but confidence on timing and location is not high enough to include in the TAFs. Lingering LLWS will diminish this morning in the wake of the shortwave, while lingering for PAYA into the afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve through the period before another front spreads north across the southern and central panhandle late tonight into tomorrow morning. Expect MVFR to at times IFR flight conditions, with gusty winds increasing and LLWS developing. && .MARINE... Outside waters: Onshore flow continues for the area with near gales for the offshore waters and fresh to strong breezes closer to shore. With the SW winds and swell direction, seas are currently running around 22 ft and a period of 15 seconds out in the central and northeast Gulf. Closer to shore, wave heights at the Cape Edgecumbe buoy are up to around 25 ft and period of 15 seconds at the time of writing. These conditions are expected to continue, with seas gradually subsiding to 14 ft or less by tonight. For Friday, the swell component is expected to remain the dominating factor for seas and gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening hours. Headed into the weekend, another gale force low looks to enter the area from the south before moving to the east. Inside waters: Conditions across the Inner Channels this morning are very location dependent. Some observations across the Inner Channels continue to show fresh to strong breezes with some pockets of near gales, such as Point Couverden, while other channels continue to report light winds of 10 kt or less. While westerly onshore flow is expected to pick up this morning through Icy Strait and Cross Sound, overall flow will gradually slacken this evening and shift to offshore late tonight into Saturday. This wind shift will be a result of an approaching gale force front extending from a low that is advancing eastward across the southern gulf. Winds are expected to flip around to more of a northerly and easterly component, with gale force winds pushing into the area of Dixon Entrance. Elsewhere, winds are expected to increase to strong breezes (22 to 27 kt) with some near gales possible in Clarence Strait early Saturday morning. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-035-053-643-644-651-652- 664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...JLC AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau