


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
461 FXAK67 PAJK 082334 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 334 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .SHORT TERM... Wednesday mornings dramatic low clouds/fog was in response to a surface high draped across the gulf, with patches of clear sky aloft allowing temperatures to drop; a precursor to winters encroach. While jackets zipped at the surface this morning, abnormally high temperatures at 850mb (5,000ft) push east this afternoon, with some areas seeing 10C (50F) at the top of the surface inversion by Thursday. For reference normal temps this time of year 5,000 ft above Annette are near 1C (34F). These conditions will be short lived as another system pushes east off the Kenai Thursday, driving cooler temperatures and onshore flow back into the Panhandle into Friday, with freezing levels plummeting to 1,000ft or so by Saturday. Light rain is anticipated at sea level, with the potential to see a brief period of light snow for the upper echelons of White Pass; however, warm soil temperatures, weak snowfall rates, and timing will limit substantial impacts. Simply put, typical cool fall weather, minimal impacts, with snow levels dropping, foreshadowing the coming winter. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/... Key Messages: - High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term forecast period - Fast moving short wave trough over the interior brings rain Friday - Chance for minor snow accumulations in far northern panhandle on the tail end of the system - Northerly outflow event Saturday - Rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week Building on the short range discussion, a fast moving mid level trough will impact the panhandle through Friday. With influence of high pressure remaining over the gulf, this system is not expected to have much moisture content to work with and overall rain amounts are expected to be relatively light. In the far northern panhandle at the tail end of this feature, high pressure will begin building over the interior. Because of this, northerly outflow will begin to develop allowing for the possibility of minor snow accumulations at higher elevations along the Klondike Highway before precipitation fully exits the region later Friday evening. Elsewhere across the panhandle near sea level communities can expect cool light rain along with some increasing winds along the ridge tops, but nothing particularly strong, as the trough moves through. While high pressure builds over the interior and Yukon Territory, high pressure will also remain over the gulf and NE Pacific. As a result, northerly outflow will develop with winds increasing along north/south oriented channels. The strongest winds are expected along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, particularly Saturday morning. As of this forecast issuance, sustained winds up to near gale force (28 to 33 kt) with gusts up to 40 kt are expected for Lynn Canal along with seas gradually building to 5 to 6 ft. With this dry northerly outflow and continued subsidence from high pressure anchored over the gulf, there is growing confidence that Saturday and Sunday minimum temperatures will reach near or below freezing at sea level for most communities in the northern and central panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer coast and sheltered from significant wind. Daytime maximum temperatures will likely be limited to the low 50s for the inner channels while outer coastal communities could reach the mid 50s. Northerly outflow winds are expected to largely diminish by Saturday night with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting into early Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance starts to diverge slightly on timing for the next organized system to impact the panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into the panhandle late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of moisture, others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this off for a bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Overall message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather early next week after an otherwise fairly cold and blustery weekend. && .AVIATION... While most places have seen VFR conditions throughout the daytime hours today, these conditions are expected to diminish. Parts of the area are still seeing impacts from the marine layer that developed last night with MVFR conditions currently ongoing. This marine layer is expected to expand tonight as high pressure moves closer to shore. This will allow for a broader area to be impacted. With the marine layer, conditions are expected to drop down to somewhere between MVFR and LIFR for VIS and or CIGs depending on the location. Locations that saw fog/stratus development last night should expect to see something similar tonight as temperatures have been steady or slowly rising along with dew points. These conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours before diminishing in the late morning hours. But some lingering clouds could be possible. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters): Buoys along our coast continue to show decreasing trend of swell, reporting SW 5-7 ft at 8-10 seconds Wednesday morning; significant heights continue to settle. NW winds continue to build as a fast- moving surface high slides east through the gulf, with moderate to fresh breezes anticipated through the next 24 hours. Expect local/isolated areas of strong breezes along major capes such as Cape Edgecumbe and prominent features along western Prince of Wales. Upstream of the Gulf of Alaska, a broad fetch of SSW winds south of the Aleutian Arc is currently generating Fridays swell. Anticipate significant heights to build to 11-13ft at 13-15 seconds out of the SW by Friday morning along the Alexander Archipelago. Westerly winds build to strong breezes Friday along our coast as well. One item of note is the post frontal WNW outflow winds from Cook Inlet could bump up wave heights to near 17-20ft in the offshore waters. Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds (less than 15 knots) continue to be forecasted for the majority of inner channels into Thursday morning with the exception of local/isolated problem spots like southern Chatham Strait, Pt. Couverden, and northern Lynn Canal, nothing outside of what we typically experience in October. Friday a near-gale force low moves along our coast, increasing southerly winds in Lynn Canal to strong breezes. Friday night into Saturday, northerly outflow conditions are forecasted for Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, with speeds reaching near-gale force for a few hours from Taiya Inlet down to Vanderbilt Reef, driving 6 ft waves down Lynn Canal toward Pt. Augusta in Northern Chatham/Icy Strait. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM...STJ AVIATION...SF MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau