205
FXAK67 PAJK 020100
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Winds and precip will diminishing tonight, but onshore flow
  continues.

- The wet and active pattern will continue for Tuesday and beyond
  as multiple gale to potentially storm force fronts and lows push
  through the Gulf and bring impacts to the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
A meso low along the front pushes into the panhandle this
afternoon, which brought elevated winds across the southern
panhandle as it passed earlier in the afternoon. The meso low is
currently jumping inland around Cape Decision as of this
afternoon, bringing elevated westerly winds near Cape Decision
with increased winds across the central inner channels expected as
the low pushes in. It will begin to quickly shear apart in the
evening hours as it continues moving northeastward, keeping winds
generally lower across the area as it weakens into an open wave
trough tonight. This will keep another round of precipitation
pushing through the area through tonight. Following this will be
more showery precipitation across the central and northern
panhandle into Monday as the parent low lingers in the NW Gulf and
pushes in more disorganized rounds of precipitation into the area
through Monday night.

Another low will also be developing and moving into Haida Gwaii
overnight tonight into Monday, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall
across the SE portion of the panhandle, including Ketchikan,
Hyder and Annette Island with 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rainfall by
Monday afternoon, but its main plume of moisture looks to remain
to the south moving into British Columbia. A break looks to come
for parts of the central and southern panhandle around Sumner up
to Frederick Sound, before a larger and more widespread system
begins to move in Tuesday morning.

Snowfall across the higher elevations of the Klondike and Haines
Highways will continue to diminish this afternoon through the
night. Light snow above 1400 ft on the Klondike and a wintry mix
along the Haines Highway is expected to last through the night
and into the morning, with up to 1 to 2 inches of new snow
accumulation along the Haines Highway near Customs and 2 to 4
inches along the Klondike Highway by the morning.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday night/...
An active Fall pattern continues through the extended forecast,
with short breaks of dry conditions in between passing systems.
Maritime interests should remain aware of Gale force fronts
pushing across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday and
Thursday.

A long wave upper level trough over the Aleutian Chain swings the
first of many fronts across the Gulf through Tuesday, with
widespread sustained Gale force winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force
gusts up to 55 kts across the Gulf and along the coast from Cape
Decision northward to Cape Suckling through the day.  Overland,
strong winds remain possible across the central and southern
panhandle given current forecast orientation of the front with gusts
u for Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla by late Tueday
night into Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, a separate,
but stronger low develops in the northern Pacific as it deepens
to ~970mb by Thursday morning, and moves into the southern Gulf of
Alaska. This low will swing a strong front across the gulf
through Thursday, bringing another round of sustained Gale force
winds 35 to 45 kts and storm force gusts up to 55 kts across the
Gulf and along the coast from Dixon Entrance northward to the
Fairweather Grounds through the day. Strongest overlands winds
once again focused across the southern panhandle, however albeit
less forecast confidence on location and expected gusts, but
would not be surprised to see gusts up to 35 mph by Thursday
evening for Ketchikan and Metlakatla (looking at you Yellow
Hill).

As of now, no significant QPF concerns with this system given how
fast each front is expected to push through. Periods of moderate to
heavy rain are expected, but not expecting a long duration rainfall
threat. Current rainfall amounts with each front is around 0.5-1.5"
across the northern and central panhandle, 1-2" for the southern
panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Monday afternoon/...As a meso-low approaches
the outer coast and the southern front moves inland, moderate to
heavy rain and gusty winds are impacting many sites. Peak gusts
have reached 35- 40 kt across Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and
Metlakatla, and are expected to trend down this evening. LLWS
remains a concern near southern terminals this afternoon, though
winds in the SFC-2,000 ft layer will diminish significantly by
03Z. Flight conditions in these areas have largely transitioned
from MVFR to VFR, except near Ketchikan. Central sites are
trending down to CIGs of 1,500-3,000 ft with localized VSBY drops
to 3-4 SM in heavier bouts of rain. Conditions will improve
overnight as the system lifts northeast, with precipitation
tapering to lighter showers from south to north. North of
Frederick Sound, CIGs remain between 2,800 and 4,800 ft and will
likely stay high-end MVFR to low-end VFR through Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): An area of low pressure Southeast
of Kodiak Island has been sending a front through the Panhandle
today. Behind the front, expect winds and seas to decrease through
late tonight. A mesolow currently near Cape Decision Tuesday, a
stronger front will approach the area, and bring gale force winds
into the Gulf of Alaska. There is also potential for storm force
winds due to a barrier jet forming between Icy Cape and Cape
Suckling.


Inside (Inner Channels): Along a front impacting SE Alaska, a
mesolow expected to move NE near Baranof Island is expected to
increase wind speeds for Chatham Strait and Southern Stephens
Passage. As it moves into the inner channels, expect the system to
dissipate. Early Monday morning, a secondary mesolow in the North
Pacific will bring stronger winds to the Southern inner channels.
Based on the track of the low, it may bring gale force winds into
Clarence Strait.

Based on current guidance, the strongest winds should stay in Dixon
Entrance. However, the track will be closely monitored. For the
Northern inner channels, winds are expected to not be as strong, as
the low SE of Kodiak Island will weaken. Another area of low
pressure will move in from the West on Tuesday, and this is
expected to increase winds again Tuesday. Late Tuesday into
Wednesday, the strongest gale force winds are again expected in
Clarence Strait.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ318.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>035-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...NM
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...Musall

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