054
FXAK67 PAJK 171810
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1010 AM AKDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.UPDATE...Adjustments to Aviation section after 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A shortwave trough has spun up a 1000mb low pressure
system in the southeastern gulf, pushing out the previous gale
force low while it stalls west of Haida Gwaii. The associated weak
front is currently approaching the southern panhandle and will
bring scattered showers with occasional gusty winds through the
day. Minimal accumulations are expected for the southern and
central inner panhandle. High pressure over the northern panhandle
will support outflow winds through the northern channels and
should keep the precipitation to the southern half. Winds will
weaken tonight as the pressure gradient loosens, becoming more
easterly and potentially advecting weather and wildfire smoke from
western canada into the northern panhandle. Temperatures will be
warmer than normal for the northern interior panhandle with highs
in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through the weekend/... Easterly rain
showers move up across the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday,
associated with waves moving around a low to the southwest in the
Gulf around 140W. These showers will begin to decrease into
Thursday night as a surface ridge begins to approach the panhandle
from the west, pushing the weakening low to the southeast. This
ridge, accompanied by an upper level ridge building over the Gulf
on Friday, will help to bring drier weather, clearer skies, and
some higher temperatures into this weekend. Models showing 850mb
temperatures of between 10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area
alongside this ridge, which will bring us some warm air advection
that will also aid in bringing temperatures up. This warm air
advection alongside the surface ridging will bring some areas of
the panhandle to over 70 degrees for their highs this weekend,
with the highest temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon.
There are some higher (14-15 degrees C) 850mb temperatures moving
along the border with British Columbia, though this will have
little impact on the panhandle outside of Dyea, which is expected
to see highs around 80 for the weekend. The higher temperatures in
the Yukon Territory and British Columbia alongside their
potential for some convective showers later in the week may result
in some risk for wildfires, which may bring some haze in to
Haines and Skagway. As of now we have put haze in for the majority
of the midrange forecast for just Haines and Skagway in
anticipation of this, and following how they already are seeing
haze from fires to the northeast in Canada.

Winds are expected to stay light in the majority of the panhandle
midweek, with the exception of winds moving into Clarence Strait
remaining elevated into Wednesday as the low to the southwest
continues to bring southerly winds up from Dixon Entrance. Winds
look to stay on the lighter side over the region for the rest of
the week into the weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the
northern panhandle may tighten as the surface ridge begins to move
in while a low remains over Canada to the northeast, which may
bring some elevated winds to Lynn Canal on Thursday. Friday into
Saturday morning there will be some elevated winds along the
southern outer coast and coming out of Chatham Strait and Clarence
Strait as the ridge continues to push east while a low remains
over British Columbia, bringing some 15 to 20 kt winds as the
gradient tightens.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Wednesday 18z /Patchy morning fog has
cleared up with VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the
northern panhandle and higher clouds for central. Southern
panhandle has occasional MVFR conditions as showers rotate
northward from a low situated off of Haida Gwaii. These will
slowly diminish as they move northward through Wednesday
afternoon. However, expect convection to develop over BC with some
showers likely crossing the border south of the Stikine River. Aside
from localized sea breezes in the north, with the exception of
Haines, no significant surface winds.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: The previous gale force low over the
northern outer coast is moving west through the gulf, continuing
to bring increased winds and seas as it moves out of the area.
Winds are lessening to moderate to fresh breezes (11-21 kts) with
areas of strong gusts (22- 27 kts)further offshore through this
morning. They won`t calm down completely, especially south of
Dixon Entrance, due to another weak front attempting to push over
the southern panhandle. Wave heights also decrease through the day
from up to 14 ft in the strongest areas to 6-8 ft by tonight. The
weak front will keep areas of 9-10 ft waves in the outer waters,
so small craft advisories have been issued through the early
afternoon. As we head into the week, high pressure is expected to
build over the Gulf bringing calmer weather to the area.

Inside Waters: The weak front is pushing over the southern
panhandle this morning, bringing periods of moderate southerly
breezes (11-16 kts) and precipitation as it passes. Southern
Clarence Strait may see up to fresh breezes (17-21 kts) and 3-4 ft
waves through the day, calming down overnight. Cross Sound is
also seeing increased NE winds and waves through the morning. The
front is expected to dissipate over the central panhandle, so the
rest of the channels will see gentle to moderate outflow winds
with potential for sea breezing Tuesday. Heading later into the
week, winds are expected to return to being light with gentle seas
for the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...ZTK

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