298
FXAK67 PAJK 291817 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1017 AM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.18z Aviation and Mid-Morning Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast. Heat advisories remain in
effect for the Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, City of
Hyder, and the Ketchikan Gateway Borough through Friday evening
with expected high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low
80s. Elsewhere, anticipated high temperatures reaching into the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain chances increase for the N Gulf Coast,
including Yakutat, through this afternoon as a weak upper waves
passes by, widespread dry conditions return by Saturday. Inner
channel winds should remain around 15kts or less, with isolated
sea breeze gusts up to 25kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/
Fairly quiet weather continues with high pressure over the
eastern gulf of Alaska. A change from yesterday is that the cloud
cover over the gulf has spread to include Cross Sound, Western Icy
Strait up to Hoonah, Glacier Bay, and northern Lynn Canal. Areas
to the east and south of that are still under clear skies for the
most part (exception is Klawock again with fog). High temperatures
will again be the focus for this afternoon with several areas
that are not under cloud cover reaching 70s with possible 80 in
some parts of the south. Heat advisories continue for the southern
panhandle today with the higher temps mainly in inland areas away
from the effects of the water and any sea breezes. Again record
highs for this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s for most
places (a few in the low 80s for the south), so temps will likely
approach and could exceed records for the day in various areas.

With the warm weather, sea breezes will be the main driver of any
winds today with strengths expected to be similar to what was
observed yesterday. Exceptions will be areas that are now under
cloud cover which will see weaker or no sea breezes as a result
this afternoon.

On the other side of the panhandle the NE gulf coast and northern
panhandle will be seeing a weak trough riding over the top of the
ridge later today into tonight. This will be bringing some rain
to the north (mainly to Yakutat today and tonight, but the
northern inner channels could see some as well tonight. 20 to 30
percent chance.), as well as could drive cloud cover farther east
in the northern panhandle especially tonight. Rainfall is expected
to be light with highest being up to a quarter inch at Yakutat
through late tonight.

.LONG TERM...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures in the high 60s for the northern panhandle and mid
  70s for the southern panhandle

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Remnants of a front from interior Alaska reaches the
northern outer coast Friday and attempts to push into the
panhandle. This creates a small chance for light showers to reach
the northern interior panhandle late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, but with less upper level moisture support, this
will most likely just manifest as cloud cover. Light outflow
winds in the southern panhandle will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 to 20
kt sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait and Lynn
Canal will see stronger inflow winds due to sea breezing and a
tightening pressure gradient over northern Lynn. Skagway may
experience 10 to 15 kts of southerly winds during afternoons.
Westerly winds out of Icy Strait may stay slightly elevated after
the sun sets and get caught in the outflow winds going down
Chatham Strait.

850 mb temperatures aloft have cooled down for the weekend,
though they are still reaching 12 to 14 degrees C for some areas
of the southern panhandle. Temperatures are expected to reach the
mid to low 70s, with inland areas feeling the warmest as they are
not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern panhandle will see
high 60s through the weekend. This will increase again early next
week, with EFIs indicating high max temps peaking on Wednesday. An
upper level low looks to move up from the southeastern gulf
Wednesday afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models
have become more in line with the EC having the low move into the
central gulf and then jump onshore over the panhandle, though the
GFS still wants to hold off for a little longer. The associated
surface inflection could bring precipitation back to the panhandle
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Similar conditions to yesterday, latest satellite imagery shows
marine layer IFR to MVFR cigs around 500ft over the north Gulf
coast near Yakutat, extending into Icy Strait towards Gustavus
around 2500ft. Outside of this deck, general sky clear conditions
reign under VFR flight conditions for the rest of the panhandle
TAF sites.

Through the rest of Friday, outside of Yakutat, high forecast
confidence of VFR conditions across majority of the panhandle with
CIGS AoA 5000ft through 06z this evening. Main aviation problem
will be persistent IFR to MVFR deck for Yakutat through the day
around 1000ft to 3000ft.

Strongest winds for Tuesday expected near Skagway and Ketchikan,
with sustained winds up to 15kts and gusts up to possible 25kts
during the afternoon. Elsewhere across the panhandle, winds should
remain around 12kts or less through the period, but can`t rule
out an isolated gust up to 20kts this afternoon under any sea
breeze interactions. Winds largely return near 5kts or less and
variable overnight into Saturday. No LLWS concerns through the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are still
the main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in
Icy Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of
3 ft or less for most areas expected through late week. Exception:

Clarence Strait will see some NW winds (up to 15 kt) as the ridge
repositions to the central gulf through Saturday.

Outside Waters: Ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf is
starting to move west. Highest winds and seas currently are W of
140W and along the near coast waters of Baranof and Prince of
Wales Islands but even than are only approaching 20 kt and 4 to 7
ft seas at the various offshore buoys. Central and northern gulf
winds are expected to start to lighten and turn W by Friday
afternoon as a trough moves through the ridge from the W. Seas
will still remain around 7 ft into the early weekend. East of 140
W, mainly will be seeing 10 kt or less of wind and seas gradually
increasing to 7 ft or less into the weekend. Exception: the near
coastal areas S and E of Cape Edgecombe will see NW wind
increasing to 20 to 25 kt into Friday night as the ridge axis
shifts W.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued very warm temperatures over 70 degrees and no rain are
continuing to dry out the fine fuels. The dry weather is expected
to continue for an additional week so there is little chance of
rewetting the soils and fine fuels. Will be keeping an eye on the
situation, but lower resistance to any possible spreading of fires
is a minor concern.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
FIRE...Bezenek

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