942
FXAK67 PAJK 170546
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
946 PM AKDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.UPDATE...
Adjustments to the Aviation section after 06z TAF issuance.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 318 PM AKDT Mon Jun 16...

.SHORT TERM...The low bringing the rain and thunderstorms to the
area continues to spin off the outer coast this afternoon. These
showers are expected to continue while the thunderstorms are
expected to persist through the early evening. These will need to
be monitored though for any potential lingering thunderstorms.
Gusty winds have also been reported with these showers and
thunderstorms but should dissipate as the showers diminish. As we
head into the evening, the low is expected to move to the north
before shifting offshore bringing more easterly flow to the area.
Allowing for some drying but some residual showers are still
possible across the southern panhandle. Farther north, some haze
is expected to redevelop from wildfire smoke due to the winds from
the east bringing in some patches of smoke.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through the weekend/... Easterly rain
showers move up across the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday, associated
with waves moving around a low to the southwest in the Gulf
around 140W. These showers will begin to decrease into Thursday
night as a surface ridge begins to approach the panhandle from the
west, pushing the weakening low to the southeast. This ridge,
accompanied by an upper level ridge building over the Gulf on
Friday, will help to bring drier weather, clearer skies, and some
higher temperatures into this weekend. Models showing 850mb
temperatures of between 10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area
alongside this ridge, which will bring us some warm air advection
that will also aid in bringing temperatures up. This warm air
advection alongside the surface ridging will bring some areas of
the panhandle to over 70 degrees for their highs this weekend,
with the highest temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon.
There are some higher (14-15 degrees C) 850mb temperatures moving
along the border with British Columbia, though this will have
little impact on the panhandle outside of Dyea, which is expected
to see highs around 80 for the weekend. The higher temperatures in
the Yukon Territory and British Columbia alongside their potential
for some convective showers later in the week may result in some
risk for wildfires, which may bring some haze in to Haines and
Skagway. As of now we have put haze in for the majority of the
midrange forecast for just Haines and Skagway in anticipation of
this, and following how they already are seeing haze from fires to
the northeast in Canada.

Winds are expected to stay light in the majority of the panhandle
midweek, with the exception of winds moving into Clarence Strait
remaining elevated into Wednesday as the low to the southwest
continues to bring southerly winds up from Dixon Entrance. Winds
look to stay on the lighter side over the region for the rest of
the week into the weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the
northern panhandle may tighten as the surface ridge begins to move
in while a low remains over Canada to the northeast, which may
bring some elevated winds to Lynn Canal on Thursday. Friday into
Saturday morning there will be some elevated winds along the
southern outer coast and coming out of Chatham Strait and Clarence
Strait as the ridge continues to push east while a low remains
over British Columbia, bringing some 15 to 20 kt winds as the
gradient tightens.


&&

.AVIATION.../ through Tuesday / Low circulation that brought a
round of rain, wind, and even some thunderstorms is pulling away
from the coast. While drier weather is spreading across the
panhandle, chances of showers begin to increase again by late
Monday night across the southern panhandle as a band of rain begins
to move north. Currently VFR ceilings above 3000 may lower below
overnight for the morning hours on Tuesday in some areas.

Showers have also largely tapered off for the central and
northern panhandle, and VFR conditions have become widespread. VFR
conditions will remain through the day on Tuesday, though a
weakening weak band trying to move N through the day may bring
some showers, especially to the central panhandle. Patchy morning
fog is expected.


&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: The low over the outer coast is
expected to continue to shift to the north this evening bring
increased winds and seas to these areas. Most areas could see up
to 25 kt while areas from Cape Decision up to Cape Spencer are
expected to see gales through the evening before winds weaken.
Seas are expected to be up around 15-20 ft in the strongest areas
while farther away, seas are more expected to be around 6-8ft. As
the low moves away from the coast, the larger seas are expected to
travel to the north and west towards Icy Cape and Cape Suckling
during the overnight hours. As we head into the week, high
pressure is expected to build over the Gulf bringing calmer
weather to the area.

Inside Waters: The showers and thunderstorms moving over the area
this afternoon continue to bring gusty and erratic winds to the
area. As these showers continue to weaken and move off with the
parent low over the Gulf, winds are expected to weaken but will
remain out of the south. Heading later into the week, winds are
expected to return to being light with gentle seas for the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661-662-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....Contino
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...SF

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