738
FXAK67 PAJK 250007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- Gale force winds have developed in the northern gulf and will
  continue to move toward the panhandle with the front.
- Rain rates have begun to increase near Yakutat as of this
  afternoon.
- Wind and rain rates diminish late Wednesday night, ahead of a
  larger system expected to begin late Thursday night.

Details: A gale force front is currently making its way cross the
eastern gulf and pushing into the panhandle. This front has
increased winds along the northern gulf to gale force winds of 35
kts with gusts up to 45 kts. As this front continues to push into
the panhandle, winds along the inner channels will increase to
strong breezes of 22 to 27 kts with gusts up to 30 to 35 kts. These
winds will continue into tonight before slightly diminishing tomorrow
to 15 to 20 kts across the inner channels before a larger system
enters the gulf late Thursday.

For precipitation, moderate to heavy rain has begun over the northern
panhandle. Yakutat has already received rain rates of 0.1 inches or
slightly greater per hour. These rates will continue into tonight,
tracking with the front across the panhandle. Yakutat continues to
be the location that will receive the highest rain amount with 24
hour rain rates of 2 to 3 inches starting this afternoon. In that
same time frame, the rest of the panhandle will receive around 0.5
to 1.5 inches. Isolated higher amounts are possible.

.LONG TERM...Active pattern to begin the long term section, with a hurricane
force system moving up from the south Friday morning. This system
looks to be a developing warm core system, with highest wind speeds
associated with the southeast section. For specific details
regarding this system, please see the marine section. Fortunately,
this system on Friday looks primarily a wind threat, with little
associated moisture. Additionally, due to the fast moving nature of
the system, any moderate to heavy rain is only expected to stay in
one area for 12 or less hour. Furthermore, likelihoods for 6 hour
rain rates exceeding one inch in any given location are no more than
30%, with the highest likelihoods near Ketchikan. Given that recent
rainfall along with anticipated rainfall leading up to the event
looks unimpressive, not expecting any flooding issues.

One thing to note about this system is the thunderstorm potential in
wake of the system. Lapse rates between 700-500 mb have an 80%
chance to be greater than 7 C/km, with CAPE values around 300-500
mb. Furthermore, there is impressive speed shear, with surface to
3km values exceeding 60 knots. Therefore, expecting at least a 40%
chance at thunderstorm development between Sitka and Craig during
the afternoon hours. Furthermore, as usual with these types of
systems, there is a dry slot between 700-400 mb. For thunderstorm
development, any cells that do develop could have wind gusts up to
45 mph associated with downdrafts from rain cooled parcels.

Looking beyond the Friday system, a vertically stacked low looks to
stick around in the central gulf, keeping cloud cover over the
panhandle and rain in the forecast. Not expecting any impactful
systems beyond typical September weather.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Friday/...Another Autumn Gale-force frontal
system will be pushing through the Panhandle into tomorrow morning.
It will bring southeasterly to southerly LLWS values of up to around
50 kt centered up at around 2 kft into tomorrow morning. It will
also bring strong gusty southeasterly SFC winds generally through
the whole TAF period with the strongest values from now into
tonight. As far as CIGs and VISs, it will primarily make flight
conditions be within or near the MVFR category through the period,
potentially temporarily dipping to within the IFR category with
heavier rain along the front or heavier post-frontal rain showers.
Speaking of that, some scattered convection is anticipated behind
the front from late tonight through tomorrow morning. So, we have
VCTS for some Outer Coast TAF sites, more specifically most likely
for the PASI & PAYA TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force front is currently over the eastern Gulf
of Alaska as of Wednesday afternoon. This front will continue to
push through the inner channels tonight. Expect south to
southeasterly winds of 25 to 30 kt. The front is expected to exit
the panhandle tonight so wind speeds will decrease late tonight
into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, confidence is growing in the development of a
Hurricane force low pressure that will track into the eastern
Gulf of Alaska from the south on Friday. Storm tracks are starting
to hone in on the low moving across the southern outside waters
and inland in vicinity of Cape Decision. A marine weather
statement is in effect for this event with additional
information. Mariners should exercise extreme caution for this
upcoming system. Now is the time to prepare your vessels by
checking lines and bilges.

For the outer coastal waters and Gulf of Alaska. Potential for
thunderstorms and associated gusty (squall-like) winds will
continue for tonight and again behind the Friday low. For the
Friday low, a swath of winds with sustained speeds of up to 45 to
65 kt are possible as the system moves through. Seas will build
near the low center 20-30ft, possibly higher. Strongest winds and
seas will be with the westerlies on the south side of the low.

For the Inner Channels. Southerly winds will continue through
Thursday with showers causing occasional gusty winds. As the low
approaches on Friday, expect winds to shift through most of the
inner channels out of the north. Then as the low moves through
winds will shift sharply back to the S-SW and increase again.
Timing of this wind shift, how strong it is, and how far north the
surge of southerly winds reach will be determined on the final low
track. Please stay tuned to the latest forecast update or reach
our to our office for more details.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     AKZ326>330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...Ferrin

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