073
FXAK67 PAJK 151751
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
951 AM AKDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.UPDATE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 611 AM AKDT Tue Sep 15 2026...

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Pockets of dense fog and low stratus across southern panhandle
  this morning. Marine layer pushing into the northern panhandle.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches
  later today, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds across
  the panhandle through midweek. Gales for Northern Lynn Canal.

- Multiple systems to impact the region late week into the
  weekend, with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds and
  increasing seas.

SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...High pressure over the
Gulf continues to keep rather benign conditions across the
panhandle this morning. The marine layer deck remains sitting
along the coast with some patchy fog along parts of the central
panhandle and outer coastline. Areas of fog have developed across
the southern panhandle overnight and are expected to last into
the morning, with some pockets of dense fog around POW,
Petersburg, Wrangell and Ketchikan bringing visibility down to
less than a mile at times this morning. This will begin to lift
through the morning, though any clear skies are not likely to last
long today as onshore flow brings in high cloud cover ahead of
the upcoming system today into tonight.

No major changes have been made to the forecast for the system
moving in today through tomorrow, with moderate to heavy rainfall
rates along the NE Gulf coast. Still seeing the rainfall amounts
begin to diminish as the shortwave pushes southward across the
panhandle Wednesday. With this wave will bring some elevated
winds across primarily the northern panhandle as it passes
through. Southerly winds will begin to pick up through the day
today for the far northern panhandle, reaching up to 30-35 mph
late tonight/early Wednesday morning for Skagway, with these
elevated winds in northern Lynn Canal lasting through much of the
day Wednesday.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...Upper level features
continue to show a rather active pattern through the long range
period. We start out with overall zonal W to E flow over much of
the region that will gradually transition to a broad upper trough
stretching from the Russian Far East to NW Canada by the weekend.
The transition is set in motion by an upper low moving out of
Russia late week that eventually anchors itself over SW mainland
Alaska. The broad trough stays in place into early next week, but
several short waves are evident rotating around the southern edge
of it.

The active weather pattern is still apparent at the surface with a
series of fronts expected to move through the region late week,
through the weekend, and into early next week. First the low and
front that is approaching on Friday that was a new feature in the
guidance yesterday is still there, but details are still being
worked out. Guidance has been somewhat split on whether this
system will track S to N farther west and stronger or farther east
and weaker. The trend so far looks to be toward the latter, but it
will still be a wet (up to 1 to 2 inches of rain Fri morning to
Sat morning) and breezy (winds of 15 to 25 kt for the SE gulf and
inside waters) Friday regardless.

The weekend is looking interesting as well with a strong broad
area of low pressure moving into the gulf from the SW and heading
toward the northern gulf coast. In addition to the stronger
onshore SW flow it will bring, it its wake is a shot of cooler air
that will be coming in from the west. Forecast convective
indices are already indicating that Sunday into Monday may be
rather convective/showery in nature as the cooler air moves in and
the potential is there for some thunderstorms across a large area
of the gulf and outer coast at that time. I have added a broad
area of slight chance of thunder at that time with the potential
that areas along the outer coast could see more frequent
thunderstorms from the interaction with the terrain. We will keep
monitoring these systems as more details emerge.

AVIATION...Marine layer continues to persist this morning across
the panhandle as ceilings and visibilities have dropped for a lot of
locations. The southern panhandle continues to see the worst
conditions with LIFR ceilings and visibilities. These conditions
should slowly start to improve over the morning as the marine layer
breaks up during daytime heating. Farther north, MVFR and VFR
conditions persist but should start to improve as well. During the
day today, most places should see VFR conditions as high pressure
remains over the area. Winds will increase later this morning with
the daytime heating before diminishing again this evening.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: High pressure over the Gulf will begin to be
pushed southward as the next system moves across the Gulf. Winds
remain NW-ly at a gentle to moderate breeze along the coastline,
with W-ly winds in the central Gulf beginning to pick up this
morning to 15 to 20 kt. Winds will increase through the day
Tuesday alongside a shift to a more southerly direction as the
next system moves in from the west. Generally expecting winds to
increase to a fresh to strong breeze, with near gale to gale force
gusts, for the central and northern Gulf Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. Also noting a high likelihood of
increased winds near prominent capes. Wave heights of 3 to 6 ft
expected Tuesday morning, building to 8 to 11 ft in the central
and northern Gulf by early Wednesday morning, before diminishing
through midweek, all with a more W-ly swell.

Inside Channels: Largely seeing calm conditions this morning with
winds predominantly a light to gentle breeze, with the exception
of some 10 to 15 kt westerly winds lasting from overnight around
Sisters and Rocky Island that will begin to diminish into the
morning. Winds are expected to start picking up Tuesday morning
across the panhandle as the pressure gradient tightens with the
incoming system. Predominately southerly winds will continue to
increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across the northern
and central inner channels, with instead westerly winds across
Cross Sound and Icy Strait. The highest of these winds will be in
Lynn Canal with S winds picking up to between 25 to 35 kt tonight
with gusts to 40 kt, with a period of gales expected in Northern
Lynn early Wednesday morning through around midday. As this
systems exits the region, winds are expected to decrease across
the panhandle, but remain elevated longer over Lynn Canal with the
tightened gradient staying ahead of another system late week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ326-
     328>330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-643-644-651-652-663-664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...Contino

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