596
FXAK67 PAJK 281707
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
907 AM AKDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the aviation section to include the 18z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Thursday night/ Main forecast story is the
continued dry, mostly sunny, and warmer weather expected across
the area as a ridge of high pressure persists across the eastern
gulf. Several areas east of Cape Fairweather are expected to
reach into the upper 60s and 70s again with the possibility of
hitting 80 in some parts of the south this afternoon (mainly
inland areas away from the cooling effects of the water and sea
breezes). Of note is that record highs for a lot of places this
time of year are in the mid to upper 70s (some low 80s in the
south), so several areas could reach or exceed their record highs
for the day.

West of Cape Fairweather has more clouds to deal with and cooler
temperatures (low 60s for highs at Yakutat) as the area deals
with more onshore flow on the west side of the ridge axis. Any
precipitation is expected to stay farther west however with most
expected west of Icy Bay. However we can not completely rule out
some light rain at Yakutat with the onshore flow so 20 to 30
percent chances remain in that vicinity through tonight.

Winds remain mostly 10 kt or less for most areas this morning.
Sea breezes are expected to reappear this afternoon in their usual
places and will likely be of similar intensity as yesterday.

.LONG TERM...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Chance of rain reaching Yakutat Friday
- Areas of the southern panhandle will see high temperatures
  reach 80 through the end of this week

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the week, prolonging the
clear skies and heat advisories. Yakutat may experience more cloud
cover and potential for rain as the remnants of a system in the
southwestern interior attempt to push through the northern coast
Friday. Outflow winds will remain light through the central and
southern panhandle Sunday afternoon, when the pressure gradient
begins to tighten and funnel 15 to 20 kt sustained winds out of
Clarence Strait. Icy Strait and Lynn Canal will see stronger
inflow winds due to sea breezing and a tightening pressure
gradient over northern Lynn. Skagway may experience 10 to 15 kts
of southerly winds during the afternoon. Winds will diminish
overnight, allowing for fog to develop in sheltered areas and a
marine layer along the outer coast to push into channel entrances.

850 mb temperatures aloft have continued to increase to 14 to 17
degrees C with areas of 18 degrees C for Thursday and Friday,
allowing for surface temperatures to reach into the 70s for most
of the panhandle. Temperatures in the southern panhandle are
expected to reach near 80 degrees, with inland areas feeling the
warmest of these temperatures as they are not susceptible to sea
breezes. The heat advisory has been updated for communities in the
southern panhandle through Friday. Remnants of an interior
panhandle front look to reach the northern outer coast again over
the weekend, though this system may have enough energy to push
more into the panhandle. Rain accumulations are expected to remain
light, though Yakutat may see heavier totals due to a potential
weak atmospheric river trying to move over the northern coast.
This system at the very least will bring some more cloud cover and
in turn slightly cooler daytime temperatures going into next
week.

An upper level low looks to move up from the southeastern gulf
later next week around Thursday before jumping into the central
gulf. The associated surface inflection could bring precipitation
back to the panhandle if the system is able to become more
organized, though most models keep the weak frontal band away from
the coast of the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...Continued clear skies and winds mainly below 10 kts
continue over most of the panhandle. The fog from early this
morning has dissipated as the sun has come up. All areas are now
seeing clear skies with an exception of Yakutat. In the far NE
gulf, cloud development continues to bring broken to overcast
skies over Yakutat from a low positioned along the Aleutian
Islands. As this low moves NE, a weak shortwave will move over the
NE gulf allowing for ceilings to lower to MVFR conditions below
2500 ft for Yakutat. Otherwise, a sea breeze is once again
expected to increase winds at the Skagway airport to above 10 kts
with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon as skies stay clear. Lastly,
fog development is again expected late tonight into early tomorrow
morning in the same areas. One factor that could prohibit fog
along Icy Strait would be an increase in cloud cover from the weak
trough that will bring lower clouds to the NE gulf.

&&

.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are the main
forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in Icy
Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of 3
ft or less for most areas expected through late week. Exception:
Clarence Strait will see some increasing NW winds (up to 15 kt) as
the ridge starts to move W Thursday night.

Outside Waters: Ridge of high pressure planted firmly over the
eastern gulf means lighter winds and lower seas for most parts of
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Highest winds and seas currently are W
of 140W but even then are only approaching 15kt and 3 to 4 ft
seas at the Cape Suckling and mid gulf buoys. Central and northern
gulf conditions are expected remain mostly the same through
tonight with S winds up to 20 kt and seas gradually building to 6
to 7 ft by late Thursday night though winds will start to lighten
and turn W into Friday as the ridge moves W. East of 140 W, mainly
will be seeing 10 kt or less of wind and seas of 5 ft or less into
late week. Exception: the near coastal areas S and E of Cape
Edgecombe will see NW wind increasing to 15 to 20 kt Thursday
night into Friday as the ridge axis shifts W.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued very warm temperatures over 70 degrees
and no rain are continuing to dry out the fine fuels. The dry
weather is expected to continue for an additional week so there is
not chance of rewetting the soils and fine fuels. Will be keeping
an eye on the situation, but lower resistance to any possible
spreading of fires is a minor concern.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAL
FIRE WEATHER...Bezenek

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