087
FXAK67 PAJK 221809 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
909 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 18z taf issuance.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.

 - High uncertainty with next week`s forecast. One scenario would
   continue the rain-showery pattern while another scenario would
   give dry skies and colder-than-normal temps.

SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / A weakening low east of
Kodiak Island persists through Saturday, while southwest to west
winds are widespread across the gulf and to the panhandle.
Onshore flow pattern will continue through the weekend with
upslope precipitation. Categorical or likely PoPs of showers
to the western coastal area, and main coast range, with the
potential for some minor rain shadowing effects on east side of
the slopes. Overall showers will be primarily liquid, although a
mix at high altitudes or more northern section of the Haines
Highway. Accumulations should be be on the light side a few inches
at most.

LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, current forecast
guidance looks similar to yesterday with a low persisting in the
northern Gulf before weakening.

Beyond that, high pressure is expected to build over the Interior
and into the Yukon. Beyond this part of the forecast is where the
uncertainty ramps up.

With this high pressure setting up, colder air would be possible to
slip to the south. Current forecast guidance keeps most of this
colder air in the Yukon and away from the Coast Mountains.

GEFS and EURO ensemble guidance continues to still show great
disagreement, especially with the placement of the high as it
develops. The GEFS is the most aggressive in driving the high
pressure south, which would bring increase outflow and therefore,
sunny and cold weather. The EURO ENS is much more reserved and
keeps the high farther north, which creates a weaker outflow and
would allow for continued cloudy and rain-showery weather.

With the continued disagreement, the forecast is trending towards
the warmer and wetter solution. This will need to be watched
through the weekend for any changes.

AVIATION...Shower activity has significantly decreased for most
areas except for the northern inner channels this morning. As a
result most areas are VFR however the northern inner channels have
ceilings down to 1800 ft and vis down to 4 miles. Some of the
showers have been in the form of a mix of rain and snow near
Skagway and Haines this morning which accounts for some of the
lower visibilities observed. Those conditions should improve
through the day as the short wave sustaining it moves into Canada.
Likewise the lightning activity has also significantly diminished
with the last lightning strikes detected around 11z last night.
The much diminished shower activity will continue to gradually
diminish through the day and into tonight. There is the
possibilityof some shower activity returning for the southern
panhandle Sunday morning with some MVFR ceilings possible as a new
short wave moves into that area. That may spread some of that
precipitation northward into Sunday night.

Winds are rather low with 15 to 20 kt being the highest surface
winds noticed. Slightly higher winds aloft over the north with
Sheep Mountain near Juneau reporting 28 kt S winds at 3500 ft
elevation. Generally winds will remain somewhat low to showing a
diminishing trend through the next 24 hours with little threat of
low level wind shear or turbulence expected.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: A broad swath of southwesterly fresh winds (15 to
20 kts) will persist in the central gulf through the day. 15 to
18 ft wave heights with 15 ft of southwesterly swell at a 15
second period will follow through the central gulf before quickly
diminishing below 15 ft into Saturday. Onshore flow continues to
direct showers into the panhandle with the occasional lightning
strike along the outer coastal mountains. The diminishing trend in
the winds continues through Saturday, alongside wave heights
decreasing to 8 to 12 ft by Saturday night.

Inside Waters: Showers continue moving through the panhandle with
southwesterly onshore flow directing winds up through the
channels. Winds of 12 to 17 kts in N/S facing channels will be
diminishing through the day, becoming light to gentle breezes (4
to 10 kts) by Saturday night. 2 to 4 ft wave heights are expected
for the inner channels, with 10 to 15 ft wave heights for channel
entrances decreasing to below 10 ft by Saturday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Bezenek

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