963
FXUS61 KAKQ 090737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts across the area early this morning bringing
showers to the region. This will be followed by a strong cold
front tonight bringing an additional chance of showers. Much
colder temperatures arrive early next week in the wake of the
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and a few storms from a lifting warm front affect the SE
  this morning.

- Warm and breezy during the day ahead of a strong cold front that
  will cross the area late tonight/early Monday.

A warm front is currently lifting through the area causing showers
and a few storms to SE VA/NE NC early this morning. A meso-low
within the convection aids in storm development, but still not
expecting any severe storms. The front will lift to the northwest
this morning allowing a lull in precip this afternoon and some
partial clearing. Temperatures today will remain warm in the lower
70s for most, mid 70s for NE NC, and mid to upper 60s for the
eastern shore.

Then, this evening to early Monday, a cold front will approach the
area from the NW as its parent low pressure system moves across the
NE. Isolated to scattered showers are expected with this front,
arriving from the W late today, then moving E through the overnight
hours. PoPs are highest E of the I-95 corridor at 40-60% (especially
near the coast), while W has 20-40% PoPs. Given the strong
kinematics in place, there is a slight chance of thunder Sunday
night with front. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe
weather ahead of the front for the SE, although this seems to be
generous, as instability remains rather weak despite strong shear.
Lows will drop into the lower to mid 40s, closer to upper 40s near
the coast, late Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sharply colder temperatures usher in behind a strong cold front
  Monday and Tuesday.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for all areas remaining in the growing
  season as lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s are expected.

A strong upper level trough across the SE CONUS will usher in cold
Canadian air behind the cold front Sunday night. This will cause a
significant pattern change Monday and Tuesday while under the
influence of this arctic air. Temperatures Monday will only reach
the lower to mid 50s across the area (despite the abundance of
sunshine). A hard freeze is likely on Monday night as temperatures
drop down to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures have risen
maybe a degree or two from previous forecasts, now with most seeing
temps around 30F, as NBM probs for aob 28F has decreased to below
30%, except in the piedmont. There may still be some rural areas
inland seeing the upper 20s. Despite arguing a degree or two,
widespread below freezing temps are expected, so a Freeze Watch has
been issued for the remaining areas in the growing season.
Additionally, the 00z/09 ensemble runs continue to hint towards a
light rain/snow mix or a few flurries possible Monday night into
early Tuesday with the upper level system, but any precipitation
will have to overcome a very dry sub-cloud layer. No accumulation is
expected and confidence remains low at this time. Tuesday will be
chilly, dry, and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Tuesday
night temps will likely hover around 32F or a few degrees warmer
inland. Near the coast, lows in the mid to upper 30s are likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and moderate temperatures for the middle to end
  of next week.

The strong upper level trough that will bring the chilly Canadian
airmass will begin dampening late Tuesday, with the trough lifting
away from the area causing a stark contrast in temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday. Seasonal temperatures will return Wednesday through
the weekend with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the
lower 40s. Dry wx will prevail through the extended forecast, as
surface high pressure influences the area. A dry cold front may move
through the area late Wednesday, which would result in rather dry
dewpoints Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...

A warm front is lifting north through the region early this morning,
currently near the southern terminals. While all terminals are
currently VFR, degraded conditions will begin within the next few
hours as the front continues to lift north. Showers and a few
rumbles of thunder are possible early this morning. CIGs will begin
to decline to MVFR at RIC/ECG/ORF/PHF around 08z and around 10z at
SBY, and then quickly to IFR around 11z (some local LIFR is
possible). Decreased VIS is expected with heavier showers this
morning. As the front lifts further north late this morning, CIGs
will increase rather rapidly from IFR to VFR. VFR conditions should
return by 18z for most sites. Behind the front, winds will become
SSW around 10 kt.

Outlook: A cold front will move through the area late tonight
bringing a slight chance of showers with a few tstms possible,
especially in SE VA/NE NC. Degraded conditions are likely with the
front. VFR conditions are expected Monday with breezy conditions.
There is a slight chc of light rain and/or snow showers Monday night
with an upper level system, but conditions should remain VFR.
VFR/dry Tuesday through Thursday with breezy conditions during the
aftn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the waters tonight, with elevated
winds and seas expected into the middle of the week.

- Gale watches have been issued for the coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound Monday night into Tuesday.

Early this morning, a warm front is draped over the far
southern waters (Currituck Sound over to the southern coastal
waters). This front will continue to lift north of the waters
this morning into the early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are located near the boundary, with brief periods of heavy
downpours and localized gusty winds possible. Otherwise, winds
are are generally out of the S south of the boundary and SE
further north around 10 to 15 knots. A strong cold front
approaches from the west today, crossing the waters later this
evening into tonight. A few additional showers or storms will be
possible with the front which may have localized gusty winds.
Behind the front, there will be an initial surge of NW winds (15
to 20 knots), mainly after ~06 to 09z Monday, with the
strongest gusts Monday morning into Monday afternoon. This first
surge will require SCA for at least the Chesapeake Bay,
rivers/sound, and potentially portions of the coastal waters,
will let the next shift handle these headlines.

A secondary cold front/surge of CAA crosses the waters Monday
evening into Monday night. Given the degree of airmass change (850
mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild waters,
Gale conditions appear increasingly likely Monday night into
Tuesday. Gale Watches have been hoisted for the Chesapeake Bay,
coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. It is possible watches may also
be needed for the Lower James River, but slightly lower confidence
here. The remainder of the waters will likely see high-end SCA
conditions with occasional gusts to around gale force. Westerly
winds remain elevated through Tuesday afternoon before diminishing
slightly in the evening. Another round of near gale force gusts is
possible Tuesday night. SCAs are likely to persist into the mid-week
period with 20-25kt winds before gradual diminishing later in the
week.

Seas increase to 4-5ft early Monday night, then again to 4-6ft by
Tuesday afternoon. Offshore wind direction should keep highest seas
closer to 20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in
the bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...AJB/AC