587
FXUS61 KAKQ 141939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off the DelMarVa coast through
tonight, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Dry and seasonable weather prevails into
Wednesday, with cooler temperatures to end the work week. A
warming trend is expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Low pressure gradually moves farther offshore today. Light rain/drizzle
  continues over SE VA/NE NC, dissipating this evening and
  overnight.

The current weather analysis shows an upper and lower level low
pressure colocated over each other just off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Strong surface high pressure continues to build over the upper
midwest and western Ontario region, pushing drier air towards the
east. Light rain/drizzle remains over SE VA/NE NC from shortwave
energy on the back side of the low. As the low moves farther
offshore, the drizzle will ease up this evening and a dry overnight
is expected. Some cloud clearing has begun in the piedmont with
scattered to clear skies in far NW parts of the CWA. The clearing
will gradually continue to about the I-95 corridor, where mostly
cloudy skies will continue this evening and overnight. Temperatures
at the time of writing this are in the lower 60s for areas socked in
with clouds and upper 60s to lower 70s in the piedmont, where
there`s more clearing. Temperatures will likely rise a degree or two
more this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will be in the lower 50s
in the piedmont to the upper 50s/near 60F along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming mostly sunny Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

- Dry, but turning cooler Thursday with at least patchy frost
  possible by Thursday night/Fri AM over inland zones.

Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area Wednesday and
Thursday helping usher in drier air. Enough dry air and mixing will
allow mostly clear skies by Wednesday afternoon across the area,
pushing out partly cloudy skies in the morning near the coast.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest
temperatures west of I-95. An upper level shortwave will push
through a dry cold front overnight Wednesday/early Thursday, as high
pressure behind the front moves farther east towards the region.
Lows Wed night/Thu AM will be cooler, but seasonable as decoupling
will not occur due to continued mixing of the N winds. Temperatures
Thursday will be cooler with highs in the lower 60s on the Eastern
Shore and mid 60s elsewhere. The models continue to show good
agreement that the surface high pressure will become centered over
the area/Appalachians Friday. With the high pressure, winds will be
calm with clear skies. There will likely be good radiational cooling
from mixing, which will allow temperatures to cool overnight with
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s (mid to upper 40s along the
coast) with the coolest temperatures in the piedmont. There could be
some patchy fog, but have not mentioned it in the grids yet.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are possible by the end of the week and
  into the weekend.

- Chances of rain increase by the end of the weekend.

By Friday, model consensus places an upper level ridge from the Gulf
coast region northward to the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure
over the local area underneath the confluent NW flow aloft. Dry and
cool weather will prevail with full sun and highs in the low-mid
60s. The high lingers across the SE VA and NC coastal plains Fri
night, with another cool night expected (though not as cool as Thu
night), with lows in the 40s. Saturday will remain dry but the high
will be offshore allowing SW flow to overtake the area, bringing
warmer temperatures with highs reaching back into the 70s. Then by
Sunday, the ridge moves off to the east, allowing a large upper
trough to move in from the W. At the surface, a cold front will
advance across the area later Sun/Sun night. Ahead of the frontal
passage temperatures could potentially reach into the middle to
upper 70s (warmest SE). Will note there is still a bit of
uncertainty as to how much moisture makes it E of the Appalachians
with the core of the upper low across the Great Lakes. Will have chc
PoPs, in the 30 to 50% late Sunday/Sun night. Precip will likely
decrease Monday allowing temps highs in the 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Tuesday...

MVFR CIGs prevail with some drizzle over the area, seen at PHF with
5-6SM VIS as of right now. It is possible for the drizzle to lower
VIS at ORF and ECG, but confidence is not high at this time, so have
left it out of the TAFs. Any drizzle should dissipate over the
next few hours. RIC and SBY have recently experienced IFR CIGs
and will likely remain MVFR, but have included a TEMPO for two
hours as the heights have been bouncing some. The general trend
for this afternoon and evening will be for CIGs to rise some to
low- end VFR around 00z/15 (expect ECG which will stay locked in
MVFR CIGs throughout the period). Some MVFR could redevelop
overnight into early Wednesday, mainly near the coast. Northerly
winds are 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt and will diminish
overnight for inland terminals and decrease to around 10 kt for
the coastal terminals.

Outlook: VFR/dry, though with N winds remaining elevated Wed,
(lingering into Thu along the coast). Dry with lighter winds
Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Strong Small Craft conditions continue across all waters through
  this evening.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions prevail across the bay and ocean
  waters through Friday.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1034mb high pressure moving over
Lake Superior and a broad 1008mb low pressure system just off the
coast of the United States. The pressure gradient from these two
systems have remained consistent through the day causing strong
Small Craft conditions across all waters. Winds this afternoon are
sustained between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect across all waters. Seas continue
to remain elevated with 2 to 4 ft seas across the bay. While across
the mouth of the bay seas are reaching as high as 5 to 6 ft. Across
the ocean seas are between 7 to 8 ft closer inland with 9 to 10 ft
further offshore.

Through the night, the pressure gradient should weaken slightly
as the low moves further offshore. However, SCA conditions will
prevail across all waters except the rivers. Winds will remain
between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. Seas will
remain elevated through night with 3 to 4 ft seas across the
bay and 6 to 8 ft across the ocean zones. By tomorrow morning
and through most of Wednesday, winds will lower slightly, but
remain sustained between 15 to 20 kt with gusts near 25 kt. The
SCA for the Currituck sound and lower James are expected to
expire by early Wednesday but will most likely needed to be
extended as winds remain elevated. Confidence at this time is
too low to extend the SCA for these zones. Then by late
Wednesday, a cold front will move across the area ushering
cooler and drier air. This will increase the winds back to 20 to
25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. There is small possibility
that there could be a brief period of 35 kt wind gusts across
the waters late Wed into early Thursday as the cooler and drier
air goes over relatively warmer waters. However, confidence at
this time is low. Overall, these windy conditions are expected
to last through Friday. Seas through this time period will
remain elevated with waves between 3 to 4 ft occasionally 5 ft
across the bay. While across the ocean, waves will be between 6
to 8 ft. Due to the high confidence in the forecast and the
windy conditions, the SCA that are already in place for the bay
and ocean zones have been extended through Thursday morning for
now. They will most likely need to be extended further as the
elevated marine conditions prevail. Then by the weekend, high
pressure will move over the area helping winds and seas to lower
across the local waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...

Another strong ebb tide has occurred this morning and early
afternoon. This has allowed for the anomalies to continue to
diminish across the Chesapeake Bay. However, as the winds
continue to remain out of the N it has pushed enough south
helping cause some locations across Tidewater, Hampton Roads,
and the VA eastern Shore to hit Action and Minor flood stages.
Coastal Flood advisories remain in effect through this next high
tide cycle. In addition, a Coastal Flood Statement has been
issued for some counties along the York river as West Point is
expected to hit low end Minor. This is most likely due to water
being plugged up the York as the N wind pushes water down the
bay. After this high tide cycle this evening, the water levels
are expected to lower. However, some Coastal Flood Statements
maybe needed as some places maybe near Action to very low-end
Minor. Confidence at this time is low and will like to see how
this high tide this evening performs. Trends will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ024-
     025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-
     097>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082-
     089-090-093-096-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...HET/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...