923
FXUS61 KAKQ 131737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1237 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today into Friday. A warm front
lifts through the region on Saturday before a cold front crosses the
area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns early next week before
another system potentially approaches on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and mostly sunny skies
  are expected today.

- Increased Fire Danger for VA through 5PM this afternoon.

Satellite imagery shows most of the early morning clouds have
cleared up. Dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and mostly
sunny skies are again expected this afternoon. It will remain
breezy, though not as breezy as yesterday, with a west wind
gusting to 20 to 25 mph (25 to 35 mph Eastern Shore). With a
dry, downsloping westerly wind, RH values drop to ~25 to 35% by
the afternoon. An Increased Fire Danger (IFD) Special Weather
Statement has been issued through 5PM for all of VA except the
Eastern Shore. High temperatures today will be similar to what
we saw yesterday, generally in the low 60s (upper 50s MD Eastern
Shore).

Winds decouple tonight as high pressure moves closer to the local
area. Low temperatures will fall back into the upper 20s to the low
30s for most inland areas. The growing season has ended for the
Wakefield CWA and no further frost/freeze headlines will be issued
until Spring of 2026.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions continue with gradually rising temperatures by
Friday.

- A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night, bringing
chances for light rain across far northern portions of the area.

Dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday with high pressure remaining
in control of the local weather pattern. A warm front moves through
the area Saturday afternoon, shifting winds to the SW. High
temperatures Friday will range from the low 60s inland to the upper
50s closer to the coast (mid 50s Eastern Shore). Overnight lows
Friday night will range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Slightly
warmer on Saturday due to southerly flow, with highs ranging from
the mid 60s to around 70 inland to the upper 50s to low 60s closer
to the coast.

A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night. The best chances
of rain will be over the far northern portions of the forecast area,
particularly the MD Eastern Shore, with little to no rain expected
elsewhere. QPF will be very light, generally 0.10" or less. An
increase in cloud cover and southerly flow ahead of the front will
keep temperatures in the 50s for most of the area (upper 40s MD
Eastern Shore) Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A mainly dry cold front crosses the area on Sunday.

- Dry/seasonable on Monday before another front potentially
approaches Tuesday into Tuesday night.

A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning, moving offshore by
Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be a warm and breezy day due to
downsloping westerly winds in the wake of the front. High
temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s
for a good portion of the forecast area (possibly mid 70s in spots).
Turning cooler early next week, though still remaining seasonable
with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
Another cold front likely approaches the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night, bringing another low chance for some light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/13 TAF period. Skies have
cleared out considerably vs this morning with just a few
lingering clouds near ECG. Winds WNW 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20-25 kt this afternoon across most terminals with higher winds
expected across the Eastern Shore (15-20 kt with gusts up to
25-30 kt at SBY). Winds lighten up this evening into tonight
with SKC skies continuing.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday with lighter winds expected
on Friday. There is a chance for some light showers as well as
potentially degraded flying conditions on Saturday night across
northern portions of the area, including SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- W to SW winds remain gusty today leading to Small Craft conditions
across the bay and ocean.

- Benign marine conditions expected Friday into Saturday before  the
next cold front brings increasing winds/building waves for Sunday.

Morning weather analysis shows a 1024mb high pressure remaining
stagnant across the Gulf coast and a weak low pressure system to the
north. A decaying cold front from this low pressure system is slowly
approaching the area. Ahead of the front winds have slacked slightly
but remain out of the SW between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts upwards
of 20kt. Seas remain between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 5 ft
across the ocean. Even though winds have slacked slightly SCA remain
in effect across the bay and ocean. Across the rivers and sound
winds have lightened substantially allowing the SCA to expire. Later
this morning winds will increase once the decaying front moves over
the area and drier air moves across the waters. Winds are expected
to be out of the W between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt.
The better chance for the 25kt gusts later this morning into this
afternoon are across the northern bay and ocean waters where better
mixing will occur. In addition, our local wind probs are showing
gusts of 25 kt being between 60 to 80%. Therefore the SCA for these
zones have been extended till this evening. The SCA for the middle
and lower bay have been extended till 11am today as winds are
expected to remain elevated and gusts will be near or just above
20kt. The SCA maybe canceled earlier if the winds do not increase
later this morning or are under performing. Across the southern
waters the SCA will allow to expire at 8am as wind gusts are not
expected to reach 25kt, however, breezy conditions will remain with
gusts upwards of 20kt. Later tonight winds will begin to decrease as
high pressure moves over the area. There could be an instance of an
additional surge of drier air as the high moves over leading to 20
kt gusts across the bay. However, confidence is low at this time to
extend any SCA through late tonight into tomorrow morning. Over the
course of Friday and  early Saturday winds will be out of the NNW
before shifting out of the SW by midday Saturday. Winds will remain
below SCA criteria and will be between  10 to 15 kt with some 20 kt
gusts primarily across the ocean. By Sunday winds will begin to
increase and marine conditions become elevated once again as a
strong cold front approaches the area. This will bring SCA
conditions across the waters with some 30 kt gusts possible. These
conditions are expected to last through Monday.

Seas gradually diminishing over the next few days. With the offshore
flow the 3 to 5 ft seas today will gradually diminish to 1 to 3 feet
by Friday into Saturday. Increased wind wave of 3 to 6 ft (2 to 4
feet in the bay) from the south on Sunday as southerly winds
increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1030 PM EST Wednesday...

Dry and breezy conditions continue on Thursday with min RH values
25-30 percent across inland areas and 30 to 35 percent for the
Eastern Shore and immediate coastal locations. Highs will once
again be in the lower 60s for most (mid to upper 50s across the
Eastern Shore). WNW/W winds remain breezy with gusts to 20 to 30
mph. Therefore, an Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued
through 5PM for all of VA except the Eastern Shore counties.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...HET/MRD
FIRE WEATHER...