364
FXUS61 KAKQ 171443
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
943 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds in from the west today, then
becomes centered over the region early Tuesday. The high moves
offshore Tuesday afternoon ahead of a low pressure system, which
will bring a quick chance of rain Tuesday night. Primarily dry
Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sunny, and cooler today, with breezy conditions across NE
  portions of the local area.

An upper trough is located across eastern Canada and New
England this morning. At the surface, intense low pressure
(~975mb) is centered over New Brunswick/northern Nova Scotia,
with ~1020mb high pressure centered from the upper midwest SSW
into the mid- MS Valley. The sky is sunny over the local area
with a very dry airmass in place. Dewpoints range from the upper
teens to mid 20s. Temperatures are rising through the mid 40s
to around 50F, after early morning lows that ranged widely from
the upper 20s to lower 30s where boundary layer decoupling
occurred, to the lower 40s where some mixing persisted
overnight.

High pressure will be slow to build in from the the WNW today,
as low pressure lifts NE towards Newfoundland. The pressure
gradient will remain strongest over the Eastern Shore where a NW
wind of 15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph will prevail, while
farther inland, there should still be enough pressure gradient
when combined with a well mixed dry airmass to support a NW wind
of 10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid-
afternoon, before relaxing later in the afternoon (see Fire WX
section below for details on an Increased Fire Danger statement
that has been issued for VA-MD zones). Cooler today with high
temperatures ranging from ~50F/lower 50s over the Eastern Shore
to the upper 50s/around 60F in south central VA and NE NC. High
pressure settles over the area tonight into early Tuesday
morning with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to
lower 30s inland, to the mid 30s to around 40F at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night with
  rain chances for the local area.

Clouds increase and thicken Tuesday (from NW to SE) ahead of a
weakening surface low pressure system approaching from the WNW.
Rain will attempt to arrive from W-E late Tuesday afternoon, but
will initially have to overcome a rather dry airmass as
forecast soundings depict a rather dry sub-cloud layer. The
highest rain chances, 60-80% rain chances are primarily along
and north of US-460 Tuesday evening, then shifting ESE overnight.
Not expecting lot of beneficial rainfall from it, though any
rain will be welcome. The latest 00Z/17 runs of the EPS/GEFS
show a high probability (80%+) for receiving 0.10" or greater
across the north, and 30-50% chc for 0.50"+ from Louisa/Caroline
to the MD easter shore. Meanwhile, south of US 460, they show
less than 50% chc for 0.10"+. the latest QPF forecast is close
to these values, with the bulk of the rain falling Tuesday
evening, lingering closer to the coast overnight/early Wed
morning. High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper
50s/lower 60s in the far south, to the lower 50s for the north,
with some upper 40s possible in the northern piedmont if
thicker cloud cover arrives earlier. Low temperatures will not
be as chilly given clouds and rain, and range from the upper 30s
N to the mid 40s S. Low pressure pushes offshore Wednesday with
weak high pressure building in from the W. Mainly dry aside
from low rain chances along the coast early Wednesday. Becoming
partly sunny with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s N
to the mid 60s S (though will note there is a large spread in
guidance as the NAM keeps some low clouds in place most of the
day). Partly cloudy Wed evening, with increasing clouds
overnight. Lows will be mild, generally ranging through the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures are expected for the remainder
  of the week.

- Passing disturbances bring chances of light rain Thu
  night/Friday into Saturday.

Weak high pressure prevails Wednesday night into Thursday. This
will result in dry and mainly partly cloudy conditions.
Weakening low pressure tracks front the Great Lakes to the
northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but
weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into
Saturday. This will produce occasional low-end light rain
chances (greatest N) later Thursday night through Saturday.
Spread in the model guidance remain high by later next weekend,
but overall the blended guidance shows dry conditions by Sunday
at this time. A gradual moderating trend is expected Thursday
through Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s Thursday (50s NE),
then upper 60s to lower 70s Friday and Saturday, with mid 70s
possible S both days. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower
50s Friday morning, and then the 50s Saturday morning. The
latest blended guidance depicts slightly cooler, but still above
average temperatures later next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions/mainly clear skies expected through the 06z TAF
period. Winds have diminished considerably early this morning,
but will increase again as mixing develops from around 15Z
through ~21Z. NW winds from 15-21Z will average 8-12kt with
gusts to ~20kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt at
SBY. Continued VFR with light wind tonight under a mainly clear
sky.

It remain VFR for most of Tuesday, with increasing clouds and a
light southerly wind (light onshore flow near the coast in SE
VA). Rain becomes likely at RIC and SBY Tuesday night, with a
chance of light rain farther south. Degraded flight conditions
are expected st SBY, and possible elsewhere Tuesday night/early
Wed as a quick- moving low pressure system passes through.
Primarily VFR Wednesday through Thursday as weak high pressure
returns. Another chance for light rain across northern terminals Thu
night- Friday could bring flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect this morning for the coastal waters
north of Parramore Island, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for
the Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters through this
afternoon.

- Benign marine conditions beginning Tuesday.

Gusty northwest winds continue early this morning behind yesterday`s
cold frontal passage as CAA pushes into the local area. Speeds
aren`t quite as strong as originally expected, but still producing
solid SCA winds across the Bay and coastal waters south of Parramore
Island. Thus, the Gales Warnings that were in effect for those
locations have been converted to Small Craft Advisories through
early to mid afternoon for gusts up to 25kt. Gale Warnings still
remain in effect, however, for the northern coastal waters through
mid-morning as the pressure gradient remains tightened around a
departing low pressure system. Also, an offshore observation is
showing those higher wind speeds and guidance continues to indicate
gusts up to 35kt being possible. Once the Gales end, a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed in its place to match up with the
rest as seas linger at 5-6ft through the afternoon. There could be
some additional CAA overnight, though latest guidance isn`t too keen
on bumping sustained winds any higher than 15-17kt. If speeds trend
any higher though, additional SCAs may be needed.

Much lighter winds are expected Tuesday as high pressure settles in
from the west. A weak system passes through the area late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday, shifting the winds to the NNE and
bringing a slight chance of rain. However, sub-SCA conditions are
expected to continue into late week. A potential weather system may
raise winds by the weekend.

Seas are 3-6 ft (locally 7-9 ft out 20 nm) early this morning, and
are expected to gradually subside throughout the day today to 3-4ft
this evening and 2-3ft by Tuesday. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are
generally 2-4ft currently before also subsiding to 1-2ft by early
morning Tuesday. Seas and waves should remain benign in those ranges
for most of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...

An IFD/SPS has been issued from late morning through 5PM across
all VA-MD zones. High pressure will be slow to build in from
the W today as strong low pressure lingers across eastern Quebec
and Atlantic Canada. We have had relatively poor RH recovery
early this morning (though some sheltered locations have started
to de-couple and RH may reach >80% for a few hrs this morning).
Either way, a very dry day is expected with min RH values
dropping to 15-20% along and W of I95, to 20-30% most other
places (28-35% eastern shore). The pressure gradient will remain
strongest over the Eastern Shore Monday as well as the western
shore of the Ches Bay where a NW wind is expected to be 15- 20
mph with gusts to 25-30 mph over the Eastern Shore and 10-15 mph
with gusts ~25 mph along the western shore of the Ches. Bay.
Farther inland, there should be enough pressure gradient
combined with a dry well- mixed airmass to support a NW wind of
10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid- afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631-
     632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JKP
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JKP/RMM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ