440
FXUS61 KAKQ 181935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
235 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore into this evening ahead of a low
pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of rain tonight
through early Wednesday morning. Primarily dry Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure returns. Another low pressure system
will bring chances for light rain Friday Night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Brief round of rain showers moves through the area tonight. Greatest
  rainfall north of RIC to MD Eastern Shore.

Low pressure over the MS/OH valley will move east and across the
region tonight. This will allow a warm front with associated
isentropic lift to pass across the area bringing a brief round of
rain showers across mainly VA and MD overnight. Latest radar imagery
already shows some returns over the Piedmont but given the dew
points still in the teens and lower 20s, any of these returns are
likely virga. However, as the low levels moisten there will be a
small chance for a sprinkle or light shower late this afternoon
across areas N and W of RIC. Highest chances for rain (categorical
PoPs) will remain across the far north into the lower MD eastern
shore overnight due to the best frontogentical forcing and
isentropic lift. Rainfall amounts as high as 0.25-0.5" possible
in this area. In fact, there is about a 40% probability of at
least 0.5" rainfall in SBY overnight. Lesser amounts of precip
further south, with less than a 0.10" likely along/south of the
VA/NC border. Only about a 25% probability of at least 0.10"
near the VA/NC border and about a 10% probability of 0.10" in
Bertie County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through Thursday with a chance for rain later Friday.

There may be a few lingering showers at the coast early Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the region into
Thursday leading to dry conditions. The NAM suggests that the
eastern shore may see some light drizzle Wed night due to cyclonic
onshore flow around the surface low offshore, but for now will just
keep areas closer to the coast mostly cloudy.  Another weak area of
low pressure develops across the TN Valley which will allow another
weak front to move northward across the area. This may bring small
chances for showers Friday into Friday night but the rainfall should
be light depending on where the baroclinic zone sets up. At
this time, the best chances for rain will be across the north.
Seasonable temperatures expected with mid 50s north to upper
60s/lower 70s south on Wednesday. Mid 50s to mid 60s on
Thursday. Lows staying in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Other than small chances for rain showers Saturday morning,Sunday
  through Tuesday is expected to be dry.

A weak frontal boundary is expected to move through the area
Saturday which will keep small chances for rain especially in
the morning. High pressure builds across the area for the
reminder of the week leading to dry weather through Tuesday.
Once again, seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
lows in the upper 30s and 40s. No appreciable chances for below
freezing temperatures through the middle of next week at least.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

All sites currently VFR with light east to southeast winds. Low
pressure over the Ohio Valley and the associated warm front will
move toward the area tonight. An area of rain will move east and
impact SBY later this evening, then gradually spread southward to
RIC/ORF and PHF after midnight. Will keep all sites VFR with this
system except SBY where CIGs/VSBYs are expected to drop to MVFR
overnight as the more moderate rainfall moves through. Any rainfall
will be short lived as the front moves through around sunrise on
Wednesday. Winds will turn NW Wed morning and increase to 5-10 kt.
MVFR conditions will likely continue at SBY through the morning due
to deeper low level moisture further north.

Outlook...Mainly VFR Wed night/Thursday as weak high pressure
rebuilds over the region. The NAM model suggests MVFR CIGs at SBY
Wed night but other models are not as aggressive with CIGs.
Another chance for light rain arrives Friday into Saturday, as
low pressure tracks N of the area Friday, followed by the
associated cold front dropping into the region Saturday. The
best chc for light rain is at the northern terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Friday
  and into the weekend with multiple brief, sub-SCA surges

High pressure is situated along the local coast and winds have
diminished in response. Latest obs show 5-10kt with some variation
in direction, but mostly onshore. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, with
waves generally measuring 1ft or less. The aforementioned high will
continue to gradually move eastward, ejecting into the western North
Atlantic by this evening. Benign marine conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week. While winds will briefly increase
again by mid-week, SCA conditions are not expected at this time. A
cold front is forecast to move across the area Friday night into
Saturday, which would could bring a period of SCA conditions to the
local waters, though CAA looks to be on the weaker side, confidence
in higher winds continues to decrease. Have kept the wind forecast
below SCA through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will
remain in the 2-3 ft range through the end of the week, while waves
will be in the 1-2 ft range. Behind the front this weekend, seas are
forecast to build to 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay building to 2-3
ft (highest at the mouth of the Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC/NB