555
FXUS61 KAKQ 052027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 326 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
is expected tonight through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
possible.


Afternoon weather analysis shows a broad upper trough extending over
the eastern 2/3 of the United States with the stronger flow centered
over the Ohio River valley. While at the surface, a sub-1000mb low
sits over northern Canada while its associated cold front drags all
the way down the spine of the Appalachians, while to the east high
pressure sits off the coast. With the cold front slowly pushing east
it is allowing the high pressure to continue to filter in a warm and
humid airmass for this time of year  across the local area. Cloud
cover was able to clear out across the SE and Eastern Shore allowing
for temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. While across
the Piedmont cloud cover and light showers have been able to persist
through much of the day causing temps to reach into the low 70s.

By this evening the cold front is expected to move into the area
before stalling once again. The cold front is likely to stall along
the I-85 corridor allowing for showers and a possible thunderstorm
to track along the boundary. The environment ahead of the boundary is
favorable for heavy rainfall as weak instability and PWATS over 200+
percent of normal for early November is forecasted to be in place.
Confidence is increasing that the Middle Peninsula and eastern
Northern Neck, up to the Maryland Eastern Shore is likely to see
moderate to heavy rainfall as the CAMS and ensembles come into
better agreement. Some of the areas are likely to see 1-2" with
higher totals associated with the higher precip late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. While across the piedmont and and up into the RIC
metro areas may receive upwards of 1" as weaker forcing will likely
be in place. Friday morning and into Friday afternoon, a wave of low
pressure is forecasted to move out of the NW helping to advance the
cold front through the area and pushing the showers and isolated
storms east. The environment will be very similar with perhaps some
higher instability across the southeast and stronger upper level
forcing. Withe the stronger upper level forcing this may
potentially allow for more storm development. The shear vectors do
support possible training of storms which may potentially lead to
very localized flash flooding. The REFS ensemble looks to be the
most reasonable with 1-2"+inches likely across SE VA and NE NC with
possible 3"+ with any training storms. Will note that the HRRR and
RRFS look to be very aggressive with widespread storm development
leading to much higher totals. In addition to the possible flash
flooding threat, there is also a very marginal severe threat across
the south. Bulk-Shear will generally remain between 35-45kt and a ML-
CAPE reaching near 500J/kg. These ingredients together could allow
for a brief strong wind gusts with any stronger storm embedded in
the line of showers/isolated storms tomorrow. There is also a very
small tornado threat due to the weak 0-1 SRH (~100m^2/s^2), however,
confidence is low at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying out and becoming seasonably cool this
weekend into early next week.

The chances of rain diminish by late Friday afternoon as the stronger
cold front advances through the area. A closed low pressure will
drop out of the NW and into the northern Mid- Atlantic/southern New
England region on Saturday, reinforcing our northwesterly flow. Much
cooler and drier air is forecasted to advect into the area,
dropping high temps back to seasonable. Highs this weekend and
into early next week will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.
Winds Saturday will be breezy as wind gusts will be around
20-25mph out of the NW. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to
upper 30s (low 40s by the coast) each night. The recent
ensembles are continuing to show dry weather persisting into the
middle of next week as opposed to bringing in any more rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1243 PM EST Thursday...

A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals
early this afternoon. Skies have begun to clear across the SE
while across the piedmont and MD Eastern Shore low-level clouds
are persisting. These low-level clouds are expected to clear
through the rest of the afternoon allowing for VFR conditions to
return to SBY and RIC. Gusty winds (gusts upwards of 20kt) will
continue out of the S through the afternoon and into the early
evening. By late tonight, lowering CIGs and SHRA will start to
develop in central and western areas after 06Z, then spread
eastward with RA/+RA through the end of the TAF period. VIS
restrictions are likely.

Outlook: Widespread RA and isolated TSRA will result in
periods of sub-VFR conditions for most of the day on Friday.
Conditions improve Friday night into Saturday, with VFR
conditions anticipated through the weekend. Some NW breezes are
likely Saturday afternoon and Sunday, especially across the
eastern shore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 327 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories issued for nearshore coastal waters north
of Cape Charles for 4-5ft seas overnight.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories likely Saturday into Sunday in
the bay and nearshore coastal waters for elevated NW winds.


Latest obs show breezy southerly winds on the backside of offshore
high pressure. Winds are generally 10-15kt. Buoy obs show seas
around 4ft. These conditions continue overnight with seas gradually
building toward 5ft north of Cape Charles. Went ahead and put up a
Small Craft Advisory for the northern nearshore coastal waters for
the overnight period to cover the 5ft seas. Winds will diminish
slightly and become more southwesterly tomorrow morning, allowing
seas to fall back closer to 4ft. A cold front will pass through the
region tomorrow afternoon. Winds over local waters will turn to the
NW behind it by late tomorrow evening. High pressure behind the
front will build in more from the west than the NW, so it will take
a while for the cooler, drier air to move in and initiate increased
winds. It will likely take until Saturday morning for Small Craft
Advisory level winds to kick in. There is fairly high confidence in
SCAs in at least the Ches. Bay Saturday into Sunday. Local wind
probs show 90%+ for 18kt sustained winds across most of the marine
area (outside of the rivers). A more marginal case for the coastal
waters, though, since probs for sustained winds or gusts of 25kt are
generally 50% or less and the offshore wind direction may prevent
seas from building to 5ft or more within 20nm. NW/W winds may remain
breezy into next week depending on the trajectory of the high
pressure to the west. As of now, though, sub-advisory conditions
look to prevail early to mid week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET/JKP
MARINE...AC