711
FXUS61 KAKQ 182323
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
723 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front remains over the region this evening,
bringing scattered to numerous thunderstorms. The front lingers
over the area Saturday with additional chances for showers and
storms. A stronger cold front crosses the area later Sunday
into Monday and a return to seasonable temperatures and humidity
expected into the middle portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms bring the potential for flash flooding
  and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. A Flood
  Watch is in effect for most of central and eastern VA through
  early tonight.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for northeast NC for peak  heat
  indices of 105-109 F through this evening.

A stationary frontal boundary is now situated across the local area,
roughly from the central VA Piedmont to far southern portions of the
VA Eastern Shore. A remnant MCV over WV continues to track toward
northern portions of the FA, with somewhat enhanced mid-level flow
(30-35 kt at 500mb) just to the south of that feature over the local
area. Temps have risen into the upper 80s-lower 90s with mid to
locally upper 70s dew points (highest in NE NC where Heat Advisories
remain in effect until 8 PM)...but the main story today is the
widespread convection expected through this evening.

Expect storms to quickly develop along and just to the SW of that
boundary within the next couple of hours (we`ve already started to
see isolated development near RIC). Then, storms likely grow upscale
and cross the area from NW-SE during the evening before
weakening/moving out between 9 PM-midnight. The most likely timing
for storms is now-7 PM in the Piedmont, 4-8 PM along the I-95
Corridor, and 6-11 PM in SE VA/NE NC. Isolated storms are possible
north of the boundary near the Potomac and over the eastern shore,
with the lowest tstm chances in our MD counties. With PWs on the
order of 1.9-2.2", heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains the
primary concern despite mean storm motions on the order of 20-25
knots. Rain rates will likely be 2-4" per hour within the storms. As
mentioned previously, flooding impacts are expected to be
exacerbated in areas that have received significant rainfall over
the past week, particularly across portions of south-central VA. 1"
of rain in 30-60 minutes will be enough to cause flash flooding in
these areas, and 2-4" would likely result in considerable flash
flooding. The 12z HREF has 30% probs of 3" of rain in 3 hours across
central/SE VA and NE NC ...so localized amounts of 3-4" are
certainly possible. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 out of
4) for excessive rainfall for most of the area (outside of the
Eastern Shore), with a Moderate Risk (level 3 out of 4) just NW of
our CWA. The Flood Watch remains in effect for most of our area
(except the eastern shore and northern neck) until 12-4 AM.

There is also a severe threat given ample instability (MLCAPE 2000-
3000 J/kg) and 25-30 kt (locally higher near the boundary) of
effective shear (due to the enhanced mid-level flow over our area).
This should be enough for storms to organize into (outflow dominant)
clusters with bowing segments. The main threat is damaging wind
gusts along outflow and within downbursts. With the expectation of
widespread storm activity and the strong-severe wind potential, SPC
has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) across most of the
CWA.

Storm coverage should drop off tonight given loss of heating.
However, lingering showers/storms may continue near the coast and
potentially on the Eastern Shore during the early morning hours.
Patchy fog may also develop inland. Lows tonight in the lower-mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Additional showers and storms are possible Saturday along with the
  threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding continuing.

- A lower coverage of storms is expected Sunday and Monday.

- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend, especially
  for southern VA and northeast NC.

Modest (20-25 kt) W to NW flow aloft continues to prevail over the
local area on Saturday as the southeast upper ridge begins to
retrograde westward. At the surface, the weak frontal boundary
remains over the area and eventually washes out by late Saturday.
The lingering front (along with subtle disturbances in the flow
aloft) should be enough to trigger scattered tstms. Similar to
today, the highest storm coverage is expected to be from I-64
southward, with less coverage on the northern neck/eastern shore.
The most likely timing for storms on Saturday is from 3-11 PM. There
is a bit of uncertainty with respect to tstm coverage, as storms
could be less widespread than expected if we get strong enough
clusters of storms this evening that result in a convectively
overturned airmass. Some of the CAMs show this, with HREF 3"/3 hour
probs less than today (aob 10%) as a result. Nevertheless, flash
flooding is the primary concern, especially since additional
localized totals of 2-3" (on top of what falls today) are possible
in spots. In fact, mean ensemble PWAT values from the latest 12z
guidance are still 2.2-2.3". WPC continues a Slight Risk (level 2
out of 4) for excessive rainfall and additional Flood Watches may
become necessary for Saturday. While a strong storm or two remains
possible, the overall severe risk appears lower with effective shear
a tad weaker. Remaining hot and humid with highs generally in the
lower 90s. Will hold off on additional Heat Advisories for NE NC as
heat indices are expected to be slightly lower than today (and
convection could lessen the heat risk). Up towards the Northern Neck
and Eastern Shore, temps and heat indices should be somewhat cooler
and in the upper 80s and lower-mid 90s, respectively. Lows Saturday
night in the 70s.

Warmer areawide for Sunday as thicknesses and heights increase as
the upper ridge becomes centered over the Gulf Coast and the flow
aloft becomes more northwesterly over the local area (and increases
to 25-35 kt). A stronger cold front approaches from the north as an
upper trough digs into the NE CONUS, but this front remains to our N
through Sunday evening. With the height rises (and an increasing
westerly component to the low-level flow), a lower coverage of
showers/storms is expected, with only 20-30% PoPs across much of the
area (highest E/SE). There is a threat for isolated damaging wind
gusts with any storm that manages to form given the strong sfc
heating, slightly drier mid-levels, and increased shear on Sun.
Forecast highs are in the lower 90s with a few mid 90s possible in
NE NC. Heat Advisories may required for srn VA and NE NC (and it
looks like advisories are more likely on Sunday than Saturday).
Overnight lows range from the lower 70s N to mid-upper 70s S. Also
cannot rule out some upper 60s across the far NW. That cold front
crosses the area Sunday night, with more seasonable temps (mid 80s-
lower 90s) and slightly lower humidity expected on Monday. Mainly
dry Mon outside of an isolated aftn/evening tstm S/SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity for the early and
  middle portion of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

- Hot and more humid weather returns by late next week.

Warm, mainly dry, and relatively less humid wx (mid 60s-70F dew pts)
is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge becomes
centered over the MS River Valley and sfc high pressure builds to
our NE. Will keep slight chc PoPs around during this time (mainly W)
with the N-NW flow aloft. The large upper ridge is then forecast to
expand north and east toward the end of next week. This will likely
bring a return to hot and humid conditions, especially by Thursday
and Friday. We should remain mostly rain free through Friday
(outside of isolated aftn/evening tstms).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across all terminals
this evening. These storms continue to bring a mix of MVFR and
IFR flight restrictions. Storms are currently south of the RIC
airport and are continuing to push east. Some thunderstorms can
still be possible till 4z for RIC. Across the SE, thunderstorms
will be likely across PHF and ORF by 1z through 4z. There are
some showers and thunderstorms now ongoing at ECG and there is
potential for redevelopment behind the line. SBY should be clear
from the showers and thunderstorms. Behind the storms, CIGs
lower to MVFR from NW to SE after 4z Sat with IFR possible at
RIC from 10-13z Sat. CIGs remain MVFR with CU Sat with
additional scattered showers and storms possible in the
afternoon and evening. Additionally, some patchy fog is possible
late tonight into early Sat morning with the best chance at
RIC.

Outlook: A lower coverage of storms is expected by Sunday-
Tuesday. Primarily VFR outside of showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the weekend with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms continuing.

- A brief northerly surge is possible Sunday night into Monday
  morning behind a cold front with SCAs possible.

- A period of elevated southwesterly winds is possible Thursday
  night.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a stationary front across the
local waters with NE winds 5-10 kt. Winds become E later this
afternoon into this evening before becoming SW behind convection
tonight. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms are
expected today, some of which could be strong. At least a couple of
SMWs will likely be needed, especially south of Windmill Point.

That front washes out over the weekend, with S-SW winds around 5-10
kt continuing. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are once
again expected Sat afternoon and evening across the Ches Bay and S
coastal waters with gusty winds possible. A cold front drops S
across the local waters Sun night into Monday with a brief N surge
possible. Winds become N with gusts up to 20 kt. SCAs are possible
with this surge given the CAA behind the front. Winds remain
elevated on Mon, gradually becoming NE by late Mon afternoon. Beyond
Sun night/Mon, the next chance for potential SCAs looks to be Thu
night as SW winds become elevated. However, confidence is low.

Waves of 1-2 ft and seas around 2 ft prevail through the weekend.
Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft Sun night into Mon. Onshore flow by
the middle of the week should allow seas to build to 3-4 ft (highest
across the S coastal waters). A low risk of rip currents is expected
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater River in
Dendron. River levels have started to rise again, so the warning
has been extended until further notice.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ084-090-092-093-
     095>098-523>525.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-079>083-087>089-509>520.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...HET/RMM
MARINE...RMM
HYDROLOGY...