641
FXUS61 KAKQ 132241
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off the DelMarVa coast through
tonight, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest. Dry and seasonable weather prevails into
Wednesday, with cooler temperatures to end the work week. A
warming trend is expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Low pressure continues to linger off the coast through tonight
before moving further offshore tomorrow. Chances of drizzle to light
rain continue across the Eastern Shore.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a upper level low sitting over the
northern half of the Mid-Atlantic. While at the surface, a
bifurcated area of 1008mb low pressure continue to sit off shore.
With one sitting off the the southern NJ coast and the other one
just off the SE NC coast. The lower levels across the Eastern Shore
continue to be saturated leading to heavy drizzle to light showers.
While across the west some clearing has begun with some peaks of
sunshine across the far west. With some peaks of sunshine across the
west this has lead to slightly warmer temperatures to the west while
the east remains cool. Temperatures as of 2:15pm are in the middle
60s across the west and lower 60s across the east with upper 50s
across the Eastern Shore.

Through tonight and early Tuesday an upper level trough is expected
to come out of Canada helping to finally move the stagnant upper
level low out of the area. As this occurs the low pressure at the
surface will finally move further off shore. However, before it
finally leaves heavy drizzle to light rain will continue across far
Eastern VA and the Eastern Shore. Pops across the mentioned area
will be between 30 to 50% with QPF totals less than .1".
Temperatures tonight will not change much due to the ongoing cloud
cover and showers. Lows will be in the middle 50s inland and upper
50s along the coastline. Throughout Tuesday drier air will move
into place as NW aloft comes in and the low moves further offshore.
Cloud cover through the day will clear to the west. However, across
the east clouds will continue to linger. This again will lead to a
split in temperatures across the CWA. Highs for Tuesday will be in
the  upper 60s to low 70s across the west and middle 60s across the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Very pleasant, sunny, and dry Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures return Thursday with lows Thursday night
dropping into the upper 30s.

Northwest flow aloft will remain across the area Wednesday and
Thursday helping to usher in drier air. For Wednesday the upper low
will be far off shore and skies will remain clear to mostly clear
across the region. This will allow for ample daytime heating
allowing for temperatures to rise into he lower to middle 70s. Then
by late Wednesday a dry cold front will move across the area as a
high pressure moved out of Canada over the Great Lakes. This will
allow for a much cooler night with lows Wed into Thurs being in the
middle to upper 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. Thursday
will be much cooler as the cold front has moved across the area.
High pressure will continue to be in the Great Lakes vicinity
keeping the dry weather conditions in place. Highs Thursday will be
in the low to middle 60s. By Thursday night, high pressure will move
over the area. This should allow winds to calm and skies to remain
clear. Strong radiational cooling should occur allowing
temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s inland and
middle to upper 40s along the coast. There has been hints of
potential middle 30s across the far NW portion of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Warmer temperatures are possible by the end of the week and into
the weekend.

-Chances of rain increase by the end of the weekend.

By Friday an upper level ridge is progged to be over the area. While
at the surface a high pressure will slowly move over the area before
sliding off the coast late Friday. Dry weather will prevail through
Friday and temperatures will remain cool with highs in the low to
middle 60s. Saturday will remain dry but the high will be offshore
allowing SW flow to overtake the area. Temperatures are expected to
rise with highs reaching into the low to middle 70s. Then by Sunday
the ridge is expected to break down and a large upper trough will
overtake the region. While at the surface a cold front will advance
across the area. Ahead of the frontal passage temperatures could
potentially reach into the middle to even upper 70s. Will note there
is still a bit of uncertainty weather enough moisture is able to
return ahead of this front potentially leading to showers. As of now
capped Pops off between 30 to 40% late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Degraded flight conditions prevail at all terminals this
afternoon as two areas of low pressure spin offshore, one to
our S and one to our E. CIGs are IFR at SBY, with MVFR
(1500-2000 ft) further inland and across the SE. Most guidance
suggests MVFR CIGs at the local terminals through the afternoon
and evening, though SBY should remain IFR. Flight conditions
are then expected to degrade to IFR or LIFR everywhere tonight,
with drizzle and lower VSBY again potentially developing after
~00-16z Tuesday, especially N. Compared to yesterday, winds
are lower this afternoon with wind speeds around 15 kt and
gusts 20-25 kt. The direction will also become NNW. Winds relax
to ~10 kt tonight.

Outlook: Degraded flight conditions persist into the first part
of Tuesday due to lingering low-level moisture. Improving
conditions and VFR are then expected from Tuesday afternoon
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday..

Key Messages:

- Low-end Gales linger over the Bay and VA-MD Ocean waters early
  this morning, with SCAs elsewhere.

- Winds remain elevated through Thursday, but after this morning
  should primarily be sub-Gale, with a few brief periods of
  marginal gusts to ~35 kt Tue morning and again Wed night.


Secondary low pressure (~1002 mb) is situated just off the
Delmarva coast, and is the primary feature now affecting the
local waters (the other sfc low continues to slowly weaken just off
the southern NC/SC coast). The pressure gradient, along with
some better mixing has led to strong SCA to low-end Gales
lingering early this morning. Have Gale Warnings for a few more
hrs on the Ocean N of the VA-NC border, and for the Bay, with
SCAs elsewhere. Expect to be able to replace the Gales with SCAs
over the next few hrs as winds drop off a few more knots. Seas
are primarily 12-15ft N, and 8-12 ft S, with waves in the Ches.
Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-8 ft in the mouth of the Bay.

Latest trends suggest the sfc low odd the Delmarva retrogrades
to the NW later today, which will lower the winds considerably
across the northern Ocean (probably to only 10-15 kt this
aftn/early evening). Elsewhere, on the west side of the low, the
gradient remains tighter, so NNW winds will avg 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt. Seas will be slow to subside, remaining at least
6-10 ft into midweek. There are two periods where marginal
Gales may develop for a few hrs- the first being Tuesday
morning in the Bay and Ocean, as the Delmarva low pivots back SE
with marginally cooler/drier air moving across the waters, and
again late Wed/Wed night, as high pressure builds in from the
NW, bringing cool, dry air and pressure rises over the relative
warmth of the local waters. For now, the probs for 34kt+ gusts
are fairly low, except farther offshore on the Ocean so
anticipate going w/ SCAs through Wed morning. Conditions finally
improve more significantly towards the end of the week, as sfc
high pressure is forecast to settle over the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 641 PM EDT Monday..

A strong Ebb tide earlier today was followed by a much weaker Flood
tide this evening. Based on obs and trends, have replaced the
remaining Coastal Flood Warnings from VA Beach and points
northward on the VA eastern shore and Worcester MD with Coastal
Flood Advisories. While the overnight high tide may only reach
Action flood stage in the VA beach area, the subsequent high
tide Tuesday afternoon is progged to reach minor flood stage.
Elsewhere, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect to cover
the evening high tide cycle. As usual, the ETSS/P-ETSS guidance
is doing a poor job at handling the currents at the mouth of the
Bay (and is over- forecasting water levels farther up the Bay
and tidal rivers). Some additional nuisance to minor flooding,
mainly in the lower Bay and perhaps portions of the James river
will be possible again on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>078-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ082-
     089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ083>086-518-520.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET/SW
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ