287
FXUS61 KAKQ 041815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
115 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather continues into next week. Chances are increasing in a
period of accumulating snow Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Precipitation chances over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday
afternoon into Friday evening before ending. An unsettled pattern
continues through Monday with a low chance for light additional
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and a bit warmer today with increasing clouds.

Early morning analysis shows strong (1032mb) high pressure over the
Midwest with departing low pressure over eastern Canada. A cold
front extends SW of the surface low and is draped across the Ohio
Valley.

Chilly start to the day with most inland areas in the mid to upper
20s around sunrise, upper 20s and low 30s along the coast. The
airmass modifies today ahead of the next front with mostly clear
skies expected through late morning. Brisk zonal flow aloft
strengthens through the afternoon with clouds increasing across the
area. Afternoon high temps range from the upper 40s generally north
of I-64 with low to mid 50s expected to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of our inland
  VA counties from late tonight through late Friday night.

- Confidence continues to increase for a period of light to
  locally moderate snow across the region starting tonight and
  potentially lingering into Friday afternoon.

- Mixed precip is also possible as drying aloft results in
  periods of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, mainly Friday
  afternoon into the evening.

High pressure currently over the Midwest translates eastward this
evening. The surface cold front drops south of the local area by
sunset with cold and dry air spilling into the region. Aloft, a
strong jet (nearly 200 kt progged by some models) at 250mb develops
just north of the local area. 00z and available hi-res guidance has
come in a bit faster with increasing moisture/lift and associated
precip than previous runs with many models bringing snow into
western portions of the area shortly after midnight, spreading
eastward prior to sunrise. 00z ensembles have increased
probabilities of >1" of snow to 90-100% but remain low for >3". With
the earlier onset, snow totals have increased a bit as it will be
plenty cold enough for snow to accumulate tonight/early Friday. The
Friday morning commute will be impacted across much of the area with
hazardous driving conditions expected to quickly follow the onset of
snow late tonight. An area of strong frontogenesis is expected to
develop along and the VA/NC border tonight into Friday morning which
may lead to some banded snowfall, mainly to the north of the maximum
frontogenesis. At this time, the favored area appears to be near the
US-460 corridor west of I-95 from Farmville eastward to the Tri-
Cities/Prince George, Charles City, and Richmond Metro, though some
uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of the higher
potential snowfall corridor. Therefore, went with a broad Winter
Weather Advisory that includes much of inland Virginia. The Advisory
does not include areas adjacent to the Ches Bay, Hampton
Roads/Norfolk, or NE NC (except Northampton, NC) where mainly just
rain is expected. A dusting up to 1" of snow is possible Friday
morning, mainly a county or two to the east of the Advisory area
before temperatures warm above freezing. Some modification of the
area and/or timing of the Winter Weather Advisory are possible if
trends toward a faster onset continue. A related trend in the 00z
guidance was toward less in the way of freezing rain accumulation
across the area. Forecast soundings remain quite cold before rapid
drying aloft moves in by Friday afternoon with a loss of saturation
in the dendritic growth zone spreading eastward Friday afternoon and
evening. A period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is
possible but the threat for more widespread icing impacts has
decreased. Will maintain `light glaze` wording with only a few
hundredths of accretion expected.

Coastal low pressure develops near Cape Hatteras and moves ENE
offshore Friday night with slight chance to chance PoPs lingering
along the coast. Temperatures are expected to be above freezing near
the coast so will keep precip mainly rain or drizzle. Overnight low
temps range from the mid 20s NW to the mid/upper 30s SE.

Saturday will be mostly dry and cool with highs in the 40s (most in
the low/mid 40s) and lows Saturday night in the 20s. A few light
showers are possible across far SE VA/NE NC Saturday, however, any
precip that falls should be plain rain (as opposed to wintry
precip).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Thursday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- There is a low chance for additional precipitation Sunday night
  into Monday as a surface low develops offshore.

The general model consensus continues to show primarily dry
conditions on Sunday apart from a slight chance for a few light
showers across S/SE VA/NE NC. 00z guidance has started to converge
on coastal low pressure developing farther offshore than previous
deterministic runs with most of the area remaining dry. Stuck close
to the blended guidance which does spread precip a bit farther
inland than the operational models would suggest. Accordingly, there
is some potential for the precip to end as a period of rain/snow mix
but expect NBM to trend precip downward/eastward in subsequent runs
with little to no impacts for the area. That said, any shift NW
could quickly change the setup from an offshore low with little to
no impact to a more impactful winter system. A few things that are
worth noting are that the NAO remains weakly negative into Monday
while the PNA quickly goes from negative on Saturday to positive on
Monday. These teleconnections are favorable for cold air across the
local area (NBM highs for Monday are in the mid- upper 30s for most
and low-mid 40s across SE VA/NE NC).

Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains high with respect to the details
of the forecast. However, cool weather likely continues with a slow
warming trend mid to late week. A chance for precipitation returns
for the mid to late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions continue at all terminals with NW winds becoming
NE at 5-12 kt (highest at ORF where gusts to 20 kt are possible
tonight). Then, rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected
with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into RIC by
~07z and SBY/PHF by ~10z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2 SM in
the snow...with the best chc for moderate snow/0.5 SM VSBYs at
RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly rain but
snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from west to
east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at RIC as
temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day). Precip
may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle. CIGs drop
to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all terminals
during the day on Friday. Drizzle may continue through Fri
evening before drier conditions return Fri night (though low
CIGs could persist through Fri night).


Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for
precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions
may linger in the SE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry cold frontal passage this afternoon will create elevated
northerly winds into the early overnight hours.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs
may be possible early next week.

Early morning surface analysis shows broad high pressure across the
region as a cold front slowly pushes into the Ohio River Valley.
Winds are light and seas are 2ft across the north and 3-4ft down
south. The first half of today will be benign, but the
aforementioned cold front will slide through this afternoon shifting
winds out of the north/northwest. As the colder air rushes in, winds
will increase once again, though speeds don`t look to be as strong
this time. 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt will overspread the waters
from north to south this afternoon and evening. It`s just enough to
warrant low-end Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay and
lower James River. Also opted to add the northern coastal waters
north of Parramore Island to account for seas building to 5ft. Wind
speeds won`t be quite SCA criteria across the coastal waters, but
will be gusty nonetheless. Winds and seas will subside after 07Z
allowing the SCAs to end. Additionally, a weather system will bring
precipitation to the area early Friday morning through the overnight
hours. With the cold air in place, a rain/snow mix is likely over
the waters Friday morning, especially the rivers and Bay. A
transition to primarily rain is expected Friday afternoon. This
precip could certainly cause visibility reductions.

Scattered rain chances look to linger across the southern waters
into the weekend, though for now, winds are expected to remain on
the benign side with seas of 2-3ft and waves around 1-2ft. The next
system may move in on Monday, which has a good chance of bringing
another round of gusty winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ012.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-
     509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP