680
FXUS61 KAKQ 181926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Monday and Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near to above average temperatures through the weekend and
primarily dry conditions.

2) A gradual pattern change develops during the early to middle
portion of next week with increased rain chances and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near to above average temperatures through the
weekend and primarily dry conditions.

GOES water vapor channels continue to depict a large upper
ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. However, it has been
suppressed by a trough digging across New England and Atlantic
Canada. This is pushing a cold front S across the southern Mid-
Atlantic. Temperatures range from the lower 80s N to around 90F
S under a partly sunny sky. Isolated to scattered showers and a
few tstms are developing this afternoon. The best coverage is
over the VA Piedmont, with isolated activity over the Eastern
Shore. The front will be slow to push S tonight, so some
lingering showers are possible across southern VA and interior
NE NC. Otherwise, partly to occasionally mostly cloudy with lows
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Mostly dry with more seasonally temperatures on Saturday behind
the front. However, some light showers are possible over the
lower Eastern Shore and western shore of the Ches. Bay with
onshore flow of relatively warm water. High temperatures range
from the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast to the lower 80s
inland. The front likely lifts back to the N as a warm front
Sunday. Still mainly dry Sunday with only slight chc PoPs NW.
Warmer with high temperatures in the lower 80s at the coast to
the mid/upper 80s inland, after morning lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A gradual pattern change develops during the
early to middle portion of next week with increased rain chances
and cooler temperatures.

An anomalous upper ridge builds toward Hudson Bay by Monday and
becomes centered in vicinity of Hudson Bay through at least the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, an upper trough slides under
the ridge into the Great Lakes region early-mid next week,
before translating toward the East Coast later in the week. At
the surface, strong high pressure builds across ON/QB Monday and
Tuesday, with 18/12z ensemble means showing nearly 1035mb. This
high then shifts SE toward Atlantic Canada and northern New
England by midweek and potentially building to nearly 1038mb per
ensemble means.

The initial change in the pattern will push a cold front S
through the region Monday. Monday will be more of a transitional
day with high temperatures around 80F N to the upper 80s S.
There is a chc of showers/tstms with the frontal passage, with
the best chc of tstms S. Onshore flow with increased rain
chances are expected by Tuesday/Wednesday lingering into
Thursday. The local area is covered by a Marginal ERO Monday,
and then up to a Slight ERO by Tuesday as an ENE LLJ strengthens
and combines with increased moisture off the Atlantic. Breezy
to windy conditions are possible along the coast with
northeasterly flow. Not as warm Tuesday, and potentially cooler
Wednesday/Thursday. However, there will be some limitation as to
how cool temperatures can get along the coast as SSTs remain
rather warm.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front was dropping S across the region as of 18z. VFR
with a light northerly wind. Scattered showers and a few tstms
were developing, primarily across the VA Piedmont and the
Eastern Shore. SBY has the best potential (20-40%) for
showers/tstms through the aftn and early evening and a PROB30
group has been added for thunder from 19-23z. Otherwise, the
bulk of the shower/tstm activity should remain W/SW of a line
from RIC to ECG. Mainly VFR tonight, with some lingering
showers, but again mainly W/SW of an RIC to ECG line. However,
patchy MVFR cigs are possible later tonight along the coast as
northeasterly flow develops. A few light showers are possible
Saturday, mainly in vicinity of the Delmarva and the western
shore of the Ches. Bay. The wind will be NE 8-12kt Saturday with
SCT-BKN CU/SC. BKN cigs will mainly be VFR, with occasionally
MVFR possible (especially near the coast).

Outlook: Mainly VFR Saturday night into Sunday, although brief
MVFR conditions are possible early Sunday. Another cold front
slowly crosses the region Monday into Tuesday as high pressure
builds across northern New England and Atlantic Canada. This
will bring more unsettled conditions with degraded flight
conditions through at least mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend,
  though a period of low-end SCAs due to 5 foot seas is possible
  from Saturday-Saturday night across the SE VA/NE NC coastal
  waters. Elevated NE to E winds prevail later today through
  Saturday night in the wake of a cold front.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes
  locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England
  next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the
  potential for strong SCAs or Gales. SCA level winds are
  forecast by Monday night/Tuesday, with the highest winds
  likely occurring between Tuesday night and Thursday.

A cold front has pushed through most of the local waters this
afternoon and has shifted the winds out of the N-NE around 10-15
kt. A slightly stronger push of CAA will arrive tonight into
Saturday, which will allow wind speeds to increase to ~15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt as the wind direction gradually veers from
the NE tonight to ENE Saturday. Winds will then shift E-SE by
Sunday night, decreasing slightly to E-SE. While wind speeds are
expected to remain just below SCA criteria through the weekend,
the onshore flow will likely allow seas to build to ~5 ft by
Saturday (especially S of Cape Charles), with 4-5 ft seas
persisting through Sat night. SCA advisories may be needed for
this timeframe (Saturday night into Sunday).

By late Monday or Tuesday, winds will shift back out of the NE
as strong surface high pressure (normalized anomalies ~2 std
dev) builds in over eastern Canada. Stronger CAA from the high
doesn`t look to make it to the area until Wednesday or Thursday,
as a low pressure system potentially deepens off the Atlantic
coast. SCA level winds are expected by Tuesday, with a greater
increase in NE winds by Tue night/Wed (and continuing through
Thu) due to the combination of stronger CAA and a tightening
pressure gradient between the high to our north and deepening
low pressure to our SE. This is still several days away, so the
timing and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not
locked in place yet, but there is quite a strong consensus
amongst the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in the general
pattern. At least strong SCAs appear probable from Tuesday
night-Thursday, with a decent chance of frequent gale force
gusts, so we will continue to monitor the trends as this gets
closer in time.

There is a moderate rip current risk for all beaches Saturday
and Sunday as the flow becomes onshore again. Will note that
short periods (~4-5 s) and increasing waves heights of 3-4 ft
may cause more of a washing machine effect than rip currents
Saturday, but because of increasing onshore swell, will monitor
for the potential of upgrading to a high risk for the southern
beaches. Hazardous surf conditions are likely next week with the
prolonged onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/KMC