156
FXUS61 KAKQ 241951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region slides offshore tonight. Another
system impacts the area Tuesday into the midweek, bringing
another chance for some light showers Tuesday afternoon through
early Wednesday night. Much cooler and drier conditions then
follow from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Mainly clear to start, with increasing clouds overnight. Lows
  in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Latest analysis shows ~1024 mb high pressure centered over the
local area this afternoon. To the west, a mid-level shortwave
trough and attendant surface low continues to lift NE over the
central and southern plains. 19z Temperatures are in the mid 50s
to around 60, warmest along the I-95 corridor in most areas.
Temperatures may warm another degree or two, with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s under a mainly sunny sky.

The high moves offshore tonight, as the weak low over the
Plains tracks ENE toward the mid-South tonight. Temperatures
will fall off quickly after sunset, but will stabilize or rise
slightly overnight with increasing mid to high clouds, as a
warm front approaches the area from the south. Cool with lows
in the mid 30s-lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches tomorrow, with showers likely
  from Tue afternoon through Tuesday night.

- Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Wednesday as
  a cold front moves through, drying out Wednesday night.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through Wednesday evening.

The previously referenced weak southern stream system slides
from the mid-South toward the interior northeast tomorrow
afternoon into early Wednesday, as a much stronger surface low
occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The warm front
associated with the initial system lifts across the region
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with associated weak overrunning
moisture to bring a gradual thickening and lowering of cloud
cover during the day on Tuesday. Expect some scattered light
rain showers lift across the overspreading the western 1/3 to
1/2 of the FA Tuesday afternoon. Despite the increasing cloud
cover, southerly flow will allows temps to moderate into the 60s
for most on Tuesday, with upper 60s-70F readings expected
across SE VA/NE NC). The only exception will be across the far
west, where increasing clouds and late morning and afternoon
showers likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the 55 to
60 range.

More widespread showers cross into the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday AM, as the initial low slides by just to our NW.
PoPs increase to 50-80% area-wide Tuesday night. Temps remain
in the upper 50s-60F Tue night. There is some weak elevated
instability evident in forecast sounding, so a few embedded
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

The stronger second system over the Great Lakes is progged to
track NE into Ontario/Quebec from Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This system will drag a fairly strong cold front through
the FA Wed evening-early Wed night. Another round of scattered
showers, perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two,
are possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, with the
highest precip chances shifting east to SE VA/NE NC. Model
trends continue to trend faster and drier, and thus expect rain
chances end from WNW- ESE Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with
a quickly clearing sky Wed night into Thursday morning. Mild in
the quasi- warm sector on Wed, with highs in the lower 70s in
most areas. Lows fall sharply behind the front into the mid
30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Areal average QPF appears to be meager with this event, with up
to a few tenths of an inch of rain expected in total from
Tue afternoon through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  the weekend.

- Blustery and cool conditions Thursday and Friday with highs in
  the 40s to near 50, along with gusty N-NW winds gusting to
  20-25 mph.

An expansive upper level trough digs down across the eastern
United States on the heels of the departing front, bringing a
markedly cooler, drier airmass to the area for Thanksgiving Day
into next weekend. 850 mb temps are expected to fall to around
-10C by Friday AM, with gradually moderating temperatures this
 weekend into early next week.

Blustery and cool for Thanksgiving Day with high temperatures
to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with NNW winds gusting
to 25 mph. Early morning lows mainly in the 20s inland to low
30s at the coast Friday morning. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds again gusting
up to 25 mph. Winds diminish a bit, as chilly 1032+mb high
pressure builds into the region Fri night. This will likely be
the coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower-
mid 20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible
in typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny, dry
conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the
weekend, though increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying
airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the
weekend into early next week, with warmer than normal
conditions on tap for next week, as strong troughing develops
over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions across area terminals persist through the 18z TAF
period and into Tuesday evening. Mainly sunny conditions across
the region this aftn will give way to some increasing high
clouds building in from the NNW tonight/overnight. N-NNW at
5-10 kt become light and variable this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, though
clouds will continue to thicken and lower Tuesday ahead of the
next system. Some scattered showers will be possible at KRIC
Tuesday afternoon, with a better chance for rain showers and
periods of degraded flight conditions Tuesday night (mainly MVFR
w/LCL IFR), as a weak warm front lifts through the region, and
again Wednesday with the passage of the trailing cold front.
Conditions clear out and become VFR all terminals Wed night,
persisting through late week. Chilly late week, with gusty W-NW
winds behind the front forecast to gust to ~20 kt for Thanksgiving
Day through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay, coastal waters north of Parramore Island, and the tidal
  river for Tuesday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- A stronger cold front brings a round of more solid SCAs from
 Wednesday night through the end of the work week.

High pressure is currently located above the local area keeping
light N-NW winds around 5-10 kt. Sub-SCA winds will continue through
the day Tuesday. Then, a strong trough will move towards the eastern
US with a surface low pressure system moving towards the region from
the Deep South. With this low pressure, the pressure gradient
between the overhead high pressure and the low will allow SSE winds
to become elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a strong
cold front. Marginal Small Craft Conditions are likely as winds
increase to ~20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay and coastal
waters north of Parramore Island. South of Parramore Island winds
will be slightly lower at 15-20 kt. Waves and seas will additionally
increase to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-5 ft in the northern coastal
zones. SCAs have been issued for the bay, tidal rivers, and the
northern coastal waters from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
Confidence is highest for reaching SCA conditions for winds in the
bay and rivers, with lower confidence in the ocean, but with seas
building, there is medium confidence for SCA conditions in the
ocean. During the day Wednesday, winds will become sub-SCA at SW ~15
kt in the bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters.

Then, the strong front with the system will move through the region
Wednesday night, which will then increase the winds again. Though
water temperatures have dropped into the 50s, this front will bring
a very cold airmass to the area and solid SCA conditions are
expected starting Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds will
remain elevated through the end of the work week, with the strongest
winds looking most likely Thursday night. A few gale force gusts
aren`t out of the possibility Thursday night, but most guidance and
local probs have low confidence, but this will continued to be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. During this timeframe, waves and
seas will increase to 3-4 ft in the bay and 3-5 ft in the ocean.
High pressure will build in behind the front by the weekend with sub-
SCA conditions returning likely Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...KMC/NB