446
FXUS61 KAKQ 152335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer tonight ahead of an approaching cold front that will
bring gusty winds on Sunday. Benign conditions expected on
Monday before a quick-moving weather system moves through
Tuesday night. bringing rain chances and much cooler
temperatures. High pressure builds in mid-week, with another
potential system to look out for late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 305 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

-  Increasing clouds this afternoon and evening with a slight chance
  for light showers across the far N overnight.

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure translating offshore ahead of
low pressure over Michigan. Satellite imagery shows increasing
clouds from the NW ahead of the surface cold front. Temperatures
have warmed into the low and mid 70s for the SW half of the area,
slightly cooler NE where clouds have been more persistent.

SW winds remain elevated this evening and overnight as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Wind and clouds will keep
temperatures from falling much with lows mainly in the upper 50s.
12z guidance is still not overly excited about QPF tonight across
our northern tier of counties in VA and MD Eastern Shore. Rainfall
is expected to be on the order of trace to maybe a few hundredths of
an inch. Clouds will begin to thin out across the west and southwest
toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind the dry frontal
  passage Sunday morning will result in dangerous fire weather
  conditions for much of the area.

- Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of VA (except the
  Eastern Shore) and for portions of NE NC.

- Cooler and dry Monday with a quick shot at precip Tuesday night.

Guidance has come into decent agreement with respect to timing of
the front moving across the region Sunday. Hi-res models are bit
faster moving the very dry air into the area Sunday morning through
the afternoon. We now have dew points plummeting into the low 20s
across the NW by late morning and only a few hours later for the
remainder of the area. Westerly/downslope winds increase to 15-25
mph with gusts 30-35 mph from mid/late morning through late
afternoon. Downslope warming will initially offset cold advection so
temperatures will still be able to warm into the mid 60s NW to the
low 70s SE. These temperatures combine with very low dew points,
resulting in RH values dipping to 20-25% for the vast majority of
inland areas, around 30% RH expected for the Eastern Shore. All of
these factors result in a fairly rare and robust fire weather threat
for the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. See the Fire Weather
section below for further details on the Fire Weather Watch.

Winds decrease for inland areas Sunday evening but remain breezy
near the coast. Cold advection takes over with lows mainly in the
low/mid 30s Sunday night. Not as windy on Monday but still breezy
through mid afternoon, especially along the coast. Temperatures
range from near 60 degrees SW to around 50 degrees NE during the
afternoon. Clouds increase Monday night ahead of the next system
with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. High temps Tuesday range
from the low 50s N to around 60 for areas near and S of the VA/NC
border. Latest guidance has trended toward a slower arrival of any
precip on Tuesday with Tuesday evening into the overnight the most
likely period for our area. Clouds increase through the day with
chances for mainly light precip across the northern half of the
region with low temps in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry and seasonable Wednesday and Thursday.

- Potential for another system to impact the area Friday into
  Saturday.

High pressure will work into the local area Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cool day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s,
then warming into the lower 60s on Thursday. Clouds will increase
later Thursday into Friday as the flow become more southerly ahead
of an approaching low pressure system and its associated cold front.
This may bring us a chance of rain Friday into the weekend as models
are in decent agreement already.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z/16 TAF period. Mid
level clouds will increase ahead of a cold front will move
through early Sunday morning bringing a slight chance of showers
to the north, including SBY (and have introduced a PROB30 group
to the TAF between 05-09z). The main aviation impact will be
west-southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 kt developing between now and
12z as winds begin to increase off of the surface. Skies clear
out behind the front Sunday morning. Winds become WNW at 15-20
kt with frequent gusts of 25-35 kt on Sunday.

Outlook: Expect dry weather and less breezy conditions on
Monday, except for some gusts persisting at SBY. A chance of
-RA and degraded flight conditions will return later Tuesday as
a quick-moving weather system passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions today.

- Increasing W-SW winds develop tonight, followed by strong W-NW winds
  Sunday into early Monday behind a cold front. Gale Warnings
  have been issued N of Cape Charles on the ocean and N of
  Windmill Point on the Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in
  effect for all other zones.

Weak S-SW winds prevail across the waters this afternoon with
transient high pressure just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. An
approaching strong cold front will lead to increasing winds later
this evening into tonight, with Small Craft Advisories going into
effect for the Chesapeake Bay this evening and for the rivers,
Currituck Sound, and coastal waters early tonight.

The cold front will approach the area from the W tonight, crossing
the waters Sunday afternoon. SW winds veer to the W-NW later Sunday
afternoon and evening behind the front, with the best CAA
overspreading the waters in the late afternoon through the early
overnight period. As for updates with this forecast package, have
upgraded the Gale Watches to Warnings for the northern two ocean
zones, while also adding the zone from Cape Charles to Parramore
Island and the Chesapeake Bay zone from Windmill Pt to Smith Point
to the Gale Warning. These areas were added mainly due to some of
the newer hi-res model runs showing 25-30 kt sustained winds and ~35
kt gusts as the cool/dry air overspreads the waters. Occasional
gusts to 35 kt are possible elsewhere, but think the threat for
these areas is best handled with a hi-end SCA at this time. Gale
Warnings are in effect until 12z/8 AM Monday, though SCAs will be
needed for all of the ocean and bay through the day Monday as
residual CAA continues on the waters. Another uptick/surge in winds
is probable Monday night as the pattern depicts sfc high pressure
still W of the waters until The day Tuesday. This could allow for
additional CAA with SCAs lingering through Monday night. Much
lighter winds are then expected Tuesday through most of next week as
the high settles in from the W.

Seas average 2-3 ft through this evening, building to 3-6 ft
(locally 7 ft out 20 nm) late tonight through Sunday/early Monday.
The offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building much
higher. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 1-2 ft today, then
2-5 ft late tonight through Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 125 PM EST Saturday...

A dry cold front crosses the region Sunday morning with gusty
winds and rapidly falling humidity values through the afternoon.
Lack of appreciable rainfall and very dry fuels will combine
with gusty winds to create dangerous fire weather conditions
across most of the area Sunday morning through late afternoon.

After coordination with neighboring offices and local forestry
officials, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of our
Virginia counties/independent cities except the Eastern Shore.
The Fire Weather Watch also includes Northampton, Hertford,
Gates and Bertie counties in North Carolina. The Watch may be
expanded farther east in subsequent forecasts. Areas not in the
Watch will most likely need a Special Weather Statement for
Increased Fire Danger but will hold off on issuing an IFD for
now pending the need for later adjustments to the Fire Weather
Watch. All burning is highly discouraged and extreme care must
be exercised with any ignition sources on Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...JKP/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...LKB/SW
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ