643
FXUS61 KAKQ 171422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1022 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary along the
Virginia North Carolina border tonight, before washing out
across the area on Tuesday. An upper level ridge expands
northward Wednesday, leading to hot weather with lower rain
chances Wednesday, followed by hot conditions Thursday, with
scattered showers and storms as the next cold front approaches.
Mainly dry for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers early this morning, along with areas of fog
  through mid-morning.

- Warmer today with highs into the mid to upper 80s for most of
  the area. A few strong storms possible over the piedmont late
  this afternoon into early evening.

Mid-morning sfc analysis indicates a quasi-stationary boundary
still hung up across the far southern portion of the FA with a
warm front to the west. Showers triggered by a weak shortwave
aloft still linger near the Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula as of
latest radar. Satellite imagery shows thick cloud cover over
much of the area, but some breaks in the clouds can be seen near
the front. Still observing some foggy conditions as well, but
visibilities are ~3-5sm.

An upper midwest low swings up into central Ontario through the
day, shunting the effective warm front, or wedge front, north
through the region today as it washes out. Meanwhile, the upper
trough advances east and squeezes the sub-tropical ridge north
along the eastern seaboard. Rising upper-level heights and
gradually clearing afternoon sky portend increasing amounts of
sunshine by late morning/early aftn, along with highs warming
into the mid to upper 80s by later aftn (upper 70s to lower 80s
eastern shore). Could have some early afternoon convection along
the coast along afternoon seabreeze circulations. Otherwise
expect a brief lull behind the morning shortwave.

By late aftn though, another TN Valley shortwave, this one a
bit stronger, swings east across the mountains. Most CAMs kick
off some showers and storms that could reach into the region
late today into this evening. Given decent instability parameters
in place, some showers/storms will be possible across the
piedmont by or just after 3-4 PM. Shear values are still not
overly impressive (20-30 kt at best), but mid-level lapse rates
are a bit better than the past several days and may compensate a
bit for the lack of shear. The primary threat from any severe
storm is damaging winds, with the threat mostly limited to the
nrn piedmont mainly W/NW of RIC. SPC has maintained a Marginal
Risk for severe weather west of the Bay.

Showers and storms taper with loss of heating this evening,
leaving a mild/muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible
  in the SE both days.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
  night. A Slight Risk is in place for much of the region for
  Thursday.

The upper trough will dampen Wednesday, as it runs into the
upper ridge. However, before it does so, it could trigger a few
showers and storms Wed afternoon and evening across the NW
(mainly N-NW of US-360). Have increased PoPs to 30-40% over the
NW third of the area from FVX-RIC-SBY, with little to no PoP
mention for the peninsulas and VA eastern shore southward.
Notable that SPC has added the northern neck and Eastern Shore
into a Day 2 Marginal Risk, again with damaging winds as the
primary hazard.

Main sensible weather item of note Wednesday will be the
building heat. As the previously referenced upper-level ridge
lifts north across the east coast, summer-like heat will come
with it. Highs Wednesday rise into the low- mid 90s for most of
the area. Lows Wed night in the low to mid 70s. There is a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the region.
Timing still looks to be late in the afternoon in to Thursday
evening. With the later timing, expect Thursday to be 2-3 deg
warmer on average with compressional warming ahead of the
frontal passage. Given the pattern, and with the recent wet
spell, have kept high temperatures both Wed and Thu on the
cooler edge of guidance, but with dew pts at or slightly higher
than MOS numbers (but a bit lower than NBM). Expect heat indices
to peak around 105F in the SE, where heat headlines may well be
needed, to the upper 90s to ~103F elsewhere. With this high
heat and humidity, ample instability is expected along and ahead
of a cold front. In addition, model mid-level lapse rates are
currently showing values ~6-6.5 C/Km by 00z, along with bulk
shear values of 30-40kt. SPC has outlooked most of the area from
Ahoskie to Norfolk NNW in a day 3 Slight Risk. Expectation at
this time is a more organized linear, outflow-driven storm mode
with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. Best
guess timing is 4pm through about midnight through the area, but
timing is still subject to some adjustment later in time given
the progress of the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- After a brief modest cool down on Friday, temperatures ramp
  back up over the weekend into early next week. Summer heat and
  moderate humidity levels expected Sunday through the middle of
  next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for (at
  least) portions of the area.

A brief respite from the hot temperatures Friday (ironically the
summer solstice is Friday night). Dry and modestly cooler
Friday, though a few afternoon seabreeze showers/storms are
possible across the N OBX. Temperatures trend warmer through the
weekend and into early next week. We could see a few storms Sat
night/early Sunday across mainly NE sections of the FA as both
the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles are showing a shortwave diving SSE
from the Great Lakes (will continue to monitor this over the
next few days). Beyond that, there is good model consensus that
an upper level trough locks in place over the NW CONUS, with a
strong upper ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Some of
the models depict 500 mb heights rising to nearly 600 dm. The
period next week looks quite hot for a prolonged period given
this setup. Humidity level might be slightly lower given this
ridge being more of continental origin, though with the recent
wet spell, this is uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

IFR/LIFR CIGs at all sites persisting into mid- morning (12-14z).
In addition to the low CIGs, patchy fog/ light rain will also
be possible, reducing VSBYs to MVFR or IFR at times. Conditions
begin to improve later this morning, with CIGs becoming MVFR
after 14-15z. CIGs do look to improve to VFR by late in the
period (after 18z). However, some widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, initially with afternoon seabreeze along the coast,
and then with convection arriving from the west late Tuesday
afternoon/early Tue evening that may lead to localized
restrictions. Chances of showers/storms at terminals remain low
enough to hold out mention for now, but will re- evaluate later
this morning.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected (outside of
patchy AM fog in the typical spots) again tonight into early
Wednesday. Additional late day and evening convection is
possible on Wednesday afternoon, with more widespread coverage
expected Thursday afternoon/evening, as a cold front crosses the
region. Very warm, dry, with VFR conditions for Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign marine conditions continue throughout today.

- SW winds increase by the middle of the week potentially brining
SCA conditions across the bay.

Early morning weather analysis shows a predominately zonal flow aloft
across the area. While at the surface a 1020mb+ high pressure
continues to sit over Bermuda. A weak pressure gradient over the
area has lead to light onshore flow across the bay and southern
waters. While across the north winds light winds are coming out of
the NNE.  Winds this morning are between 5 to 10 kt and seas are
~1ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Across the
northern waters there is the potential of fog as the front to the
south pushes warmer air over the cooler water. Satellite and
surface observations are showing visibility between 3 to six miles
across the water. Trends will continue to be monitored if visibility
drops.

Benign marine conditions are expected through much of the day. A
warm front will lift north through the day allowing SSE winds to
continue through the day. Winds today will be sustained between 5 to
10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Seas will increase only increase
in the bay today as winds increase and seas will be 1 to 2 ft. While
across the ocean seas will remain between 2 to 3 ft. In addition to
the benign marine conditions, there is the potential of showers and
thunderstorms across the waters. Later this evening and into tonight
winds will begin to increase and shift out of the SSW. The winds
will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts nearing 20 kt. This is due
to the pressure gradient tightening from the high to the east and a
developing low to the west. The better chances for SCA conditions
reside late Wednesday night into late Thursday night. Latest model
guidance shows adequate mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere
and decently strong 925mb jet. The local wind probabilities have also
shows a probability of frequent wind gusts near 20 kt between 80 to
90%. There is high enough confidence with in this forecast that SCA
will potentially be needed later this week. The daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms will also continue throughout this week.

Onshore flow will continue to be present across the northern
beaches today as the warm front continues to lift north. There
is also the potential of 2 to 3 ft waves along the shore line.
This will lead to a moderate rip current risk today. Across the
south low rip currents will remain the the forecast for today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The continuous onshore flow over the last couple of days is
continuing to lead  to slightly elevated tidal anomalies,
particularly in the upper bay and tidal portions of the
Rappahannock/Potomac rivers. This morning`s high tide is likely
to see some lingering nuisance to near minor flooding. In
addition, some of the latest model guidance continues to show
the nuisance/minor flooding continuing with the next high tide
cycle later this evening. The Coastal Flood Statement that was
issued for the upper Rappahannock River (Tappahannock gage)
where level may near the minor flood threshold this morning has
been extended till this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/LKB/MAM
MARINE...HET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...