853
FXUS61 KAKQ 222332
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
632 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area late tonight into
early next week, leading to dry conditions. Another system
impacts the area Tuesday into the middle of next week, with
cooler and drier conditions to then follow from Thanksgiving Day
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Showers taper off along the coast late this afternoon, with
  gradual clearing late tonight and overnight.

- Cooler tonight with lows 35 to 40 inland, and upper 30s to mid
  40s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis reveals ~1000mb sfc low pressure over
the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The attendant surface cold front is
now just offshore of the New England and mid-Atlantic coast. An
upstream shortwave trough approaching from the west is finally
starting to nudge quasi- stationary front draped over the area
farther to the SSE as a cold front. This front has also ushered
another round of showers across the region this afternoon, with
those showers currently in the process of sliding offshore.
Clearing is already underway inland, with gradual clearing along
the coast to begin around and after sunset. 19z temperatures
have tumbled back into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
much of the area, and expect that falling temps trend to
continue into the SE CWA.

Thicknesses hang up a bit tonight, with the true CAA still about
24 hours out from our region. That said, clearing tonight, with
a relatively cooler airmass filtering in across the area tonight
post-frontal. Chilly overnight temperatures in the upper 30s to
around 40 are forecast for tonight north of Richmond over to
the VA northern neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore. Farther south,
slightly milder early morning lows in the 40s to near 50 over
central/SE VA into northeastern NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry, seasonable conditions Sunday, with cooler temperatures
  Monday.

High pressure builds across the region on Sunday, with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions returning. A clipper system
traversing southern Ontario into the interior northeast will
drag a reinforcing, dry cold front across our area on Sunday.
Behind this front, cooler, drier air mass builds into the area
tomorrow night into Monday morning. With high pressure overhead
this cooler airmass Sunday night. While the BL remains mixed
enough to preclude max radiating, mostly clear conditions, light
winds nevertheless yield a good environment for radiational
cooling, and a chilly night is forecast area wide into Monday
morning. Look for lows Monday morning dropping into the 30s
(lower 40s along the coast).

Dampening upper ridging aloft slides across the region from the
mid-South region on Monday. Meanwhile, mild surface high
pressure of Pacific origin settles across the region late Monday
into midweek. This will bring a sunny start of the day. Weak
WAA starts to move into the area from NW to SE late Mon and Mon
night, ahead of the next mid- level trough approaching the area
from the west. Ongoing cool air advection will mitigate slightly
above normal thickness values, yielding highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Increasing clouds Monday night with lows 35-40
inland, upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday into the middle of
  next week. Additional rounds of showers will be likely
  Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Drier and cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  next weekend.

Guidance is starting to become into better agreement with the
latest 12z run. There continues to be good agreement that
dampening mid-level trough and its attendant frontal system
moves through the OH/TN Valley Tuesday, as sfc low pressure
occludes over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Weak
overrunning will bring gradually thickening and lowering cloud
cover Tuesday morning, w/light precip to overspread the area
later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts across
the region.

While there has been divergence in solutions come Wednesday,
mainly pertaining to the speed/strength of the mid-level trough,
ensemble guidance is steadily trending towards the cold front
pushing through on Wednesday night. Similar to this past system,
this could result in another round of showers with the actual
frontal passage Wednesday night. This would then lead to a
clearing, cooler, and drier Thanksgiving Day. This also likely
portends to milder temperatures hanging around Tuesday through
Wednesday, to be followed by much cooler temperatures returning
by late week as an expansive upper trough digs down across the
Eastern United States. Look for highs well into the 60s to lower
70s Tue, low to mid 70s on Wed, with cooler highs in the 50s on
Thanksgiving Day. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures could
struggle to reach 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Saturday...

Flight conditions vary across the terminals this evening as a
cold front pushes south of the forecast area. The terminals have
generally been IFR or MVFR this evening with a few breaks into
VFR here and there as skies try to clear out behind the front.
Remaining IFR CIGs in the southeast should lift to MVFR early in
the period, then remaining MVFR lifts to VFR CIGs late tonight.
Visibility, however, has a higher level of uncertainty. While
there hasn`t been much in the way of fog at the terminals so
far, obs in the area have dropped as low as half mile VSBYs.
With dry air not really expected to advect into the area and
calm/light winds overnight, fog could certainly spread to the
terminals. Unfortunately, guidance is not much help as there is
not much in the way of fog in the models tonight. VFR returns to
the area tomorrow under mostly clear skies.

Outlook:
VFR to persist into early next week. Another chance for rain
and some flight restrictions returns for later Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses the local waters today, bringing a slight
  increase in N to NW winds this afternoon into tonight. SCAs
  are in effect for the bay from this afternoon through late
  this evening.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected on Sunday, with a decent
  chance of low-end SCAs from Sunday night-Monday morning
  behind another cold front.

The latest wx analysis shows a weak low pressure system over VA with
an associated cold front moving across the local waters. This front
has shifted winds out of the NW with winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to
25 kt; SCA are in effect until 7 PM for the middle bay and 10 PM for
the lower and mouth of the bay. The CAA behind this front is rather
weak, so the winds will decrease to sub-SCA conditions overnight.
Then, high pressure will briefly build back into the region during
the day Sunday, allowing winds to be N-NW 5-10 kt with gusts to 15
kt through the majority of the day Sunday.

Another cold front will cross the area Sunday night into Monday
bringing another round of likely low-end SCA conditions. With the
front, winds will remain N-NW at 15-20 kt with gusts 25 kt across
the waters. This second front will have stronger CAA, which could
lead to stronger winds than the current front. Behind that front,
sub-SCA conditions will return for early next week, but SCA
conditions are possible late Wednesday into Thursday night with the
next system.

Seas and waves are currently 1-3 ft across all local waters and will
remain sub-SCA until the stronger system mid-week, where seas in the
northern waters will likely increase to 4-5 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...KMC