457
FXUS61 KAKQ 090154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
954 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the area today, bringing scattered
showers. Much cooler temperatures arrive tonight into tomorrow
behind the cold front. A coastal low develops off the Southeast
coast this weekend, resulting in the potential for heavy rain
and breezy conditions for eastern portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 848 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:


- A much cooler airmass builds into the region tonight.

A cold front has cut through the forecast area based on latest
sfc analysis. An UL trough axis is swinging into the Mid-
Atlantic, supporting the front from aloft. The initial line of
showers has pushed into the Albemarle Sound/offshore. Cloud
cover has started scattering out over the FA as the cool, dry
high pressure builds in behind the front. Temps are generally
in the lower to middle 60s across VA/NC. While across the MD
Eastern Shore temperatures are in the upper 50s. N/NW winds
behind the front are gusting 20- 25mph along the coastline,
while winds inland have begun to calm.

High pressure continues to fill in overnight once that cold front is
offshore with NW flow setting up aloft. Skies will finish clearing
out by morning. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your
bias), winds will be too elevated (~10-15mph) overnight to set up
good radiational cooling and really drop the temperatures.
Still going to be on the chilly side, though, with lows in the
mid to upper 40s in the piedmont/inland counties and ranging
through the 50s near the water and in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday.

- Patchy frost is possible across portions of Louisa and
  Fluvanna counties Friday morning as temperatures fall back
  into the 30s.

A lot cooler and drier on Thurs and Fri with that strong sfc high
pressure settling into New England and NW flow continuing aloft.
Highs on both days look to be in the mid 60s for much of the area
and upper 60s-around 70 along and S of US-460. Mostly sunny skies
forecast for tomorrow with perhaps some scattered cloud cover in the
SE. Cloud cover increases from the E through the day Fri as an
inverted trough (i.e. the beginnings of the weekend coastal low)
forms along the coast. Main story during this short term time
period is the potential for the season`s first Frost Advisory in
the NW counties (Fluvanna and Louisa). With the cooler airmass
in place, lighter winds, and clear skies, temps could drop into
the mid to upper 30s in the NW. Had to blend in NBM25th for
temps Thurs night to bring temps down closer to the what the
statistical guidance shows. Other inland areas away from the NW
will see lows in the low to mid 40s, while eastern counties
(except the MD Eastern Shore) see lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- There is increasing confidence that a strong coastal system will
impact the region this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain,
gusty winds, and significant coastal/marine impacts are all
possible.

The 12z model guidance continues to come into better agreement with
a strong coastal system impacting the region this weekend and likely
lingering into Monday. Heavy rain will be possible with this system,
with WPC already highlighting eastern portions of our area
(including all of Hampton Roads) in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and a Day 5
Slight ERO. Both the 12z GEFS and EPS already show 1 to 3" of QPF
across the eastern half of the area Saturday night into Monday with
90th percentiles showing upwards of 4-5". Current NBM PoPs are
likely still too low, only ~50-60% along the coast, Saturday
night into early Monday, but these will continue to trend up as
model confidence increases. Could potentially dry out going into
Tues, but uncertainty is high that far out with regards to
where the low will go and when. In addition to the heavy rain
threat, it will also be windy with wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph
already in the forecast along the immediate coast (highest
Sunday-Sunday night). Finally, significant coastal and marine
impacts are possible, see the Marine and Tides and Coastal
Flooding sections of the discussion below for more details.
Temps will be pretty similar each day during this period with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 704 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front continues to move through the forecast area this
evening. Flight conditions have already begun to improve across
the area with just some lingering MVFR conditions at ORF with
some BKN Cigs. These MVFR conditions are expected to clear
within the next hour or two. Showers have moved out of the area
as the cold front continues to push through. Behind the front
winds will diminish to around 10 kt this evening. Through the
night VFR conditions are expected to prevail. For tomorrow winds
will increase around 12z and will continue to be out of the N
between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt inland. While
along the coastal terminals wind gusts could be between 20 to
25kt.

Outlook: Another period of sub-VFR CIGs, elevated winds, and
moderate to heavy rain are likely as we head into this weekend
as low pressure develops offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through at
  least Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters this afternoon.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  some uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are
  forecast from Saturday evening into early next week with Gale
  to Storm conditions likely.

Afternoon analysis shows surface low pressure just east of Maine
with a trough and cold front extending to the SW of the low center
across the local waters. Winds ahead of the boundary are W-SW at 10-
15 kt while locations behind the front have seen an abrupt shift to
NNW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas offshore are 2-4
ft with waves currently around 2 ft in the Bay.

The cold front is forecast to continue southward through the
remainder of the afternoon and should clear the local waters before
sunset. Latest guidance and local wind probs continue to favor a
period of high-end SCA conditions this evening into tonight with
potential for a brief period of gale-force gusts, especially
during the 10PM-2AM period this evening/early tonight when post-
frontal pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be
maximized. In the wake of the cold front, a compressed pressure
gradient will prevail, especially for the southern half of the
area with anomalously strong high pressure to our north and
lower pressures offshore of the Carolinas. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect and/or have been extended through
most of Thursday, with extensions into late Friday for the
southern Ches Bay and through Saturday in the coastal waters S
of Cape Charles. The mouth of the Bay may need further
extensions if 4 ft waves are able to continue moving in from
offshore. Otherwise, a reprieve from the wind is possible for
the middle/upper bay and adjacent rivers from late Thursday into
Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 5-6 ft by tonight and
then 6-8 ft by Thursday, with locally higher seas S.

Forecast uncertainty continues for late this weekend into early
next week. However, there is excellent agreement across nearly
all deterministic and ensemble model guidance that low pressure
will develop along the stalled front/coastal trough Saturday,
drifting north or northeast near or just offshore of our
coastline Sunday into early Monday. The exact track and strength
of the low show considerable variation among and within the
global deterministic and ensemble solutions, respectively. The
latest GFS has become an outlier with the low lifting farther
north toward NJ while the ECMWF and Canadian show the low
lifting north and strengthening on Sunday and doing some kind of
pirouette near the coast as the low occludes. The ECMWF/GEM
solutions would result in a prolonged period of significant
marine impacts, potentially extending well into Monday night and
early Tuesday. The GFS depiction would result in a more focused
period of strong winds with conditions improving on Monday. In
summary, while some details remain uncertain, there is growing
potential for high-end Gales or Storm conditions with this
forecast cycle. Have continued the trend from previous forecast
cycles and increased winds a few more kt from later Saturday
into Monday. This brings increasing potential for Storm
conditions to the VA and MD coastal waters with gusts to 50 kt
and strong Gale conditions elsewhere, including the Chesapeake
Bay, with gusts to 40-45 kt. While it is still too early for
headlines, Gale and/or Storm Watches will be needed in the
coming days. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to at
least 10-15+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the
Chesapeake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 950 PM EDT Wednesday...

Given the high astronomical tides and moderately strong NE
winds, nuisance to minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent
to the lower Ches Bay, Currituck Outer Banks, and the tidal
York/James on Thursday and Friday. As such, a Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued for the Currituck Outer Banks Thursday
morning (given higher confidence in reaching minor flood stage)
with Coastal Flood Statements for the Lower James River and
mouth of the Ches Bay (given lower confidence in exceeding minor
flood stage). Given that the Thursday afternoon high tide is the
lower of the astro tides, will likely handle Friday morning`s
high tides separately with another round of Coastal Flood
Statements or Advisories.

Tidal anomalies increase quickly late Saturday through Sunday
with widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding
possible by Sunday. The highest confidence is across the Ches
Bay (especially the lower bay) and across locations adjacent to
the ocean. Will note that the exact flood stage will depend on
the details with respect to the track and strength of a coastal
low.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Thursday for
     NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     633-636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638-650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC/HET
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...AC/HET
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...