299
FXUS61 KAKQ 120303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1003 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the area later this evening into
Wednesday, before a dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. High pressure builds back into the area
Friday into the weekend. Another frontal system potentially
crosses the area later Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing cloud cover and cool tonight.

High pressure at the sfc has slid down toward the Gulf coast while
the trough axis aloft has slid offshore. Winds have diminished
but remain generally 5-10 mph through tonight. Will note that
winds may increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph along
the coast late tonight into early Wed morning. Temps as of 650
AM ranged from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area under
mostly clear skies. Not quite as cold tonight as last night,
with lows in the low- mid 30s for most (upper 30s along the
coast). However, when factoring in the winds, it will feel like
the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area overnight. Clouds
increase in coverage overnight as a weak shortwave passes over
the area. Clouds clear out by early Wed morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate back closer to average on Wednesday.

- A dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into early
  Thursday.

High pressure, currently near the Gulf coast, will slide east and
then build N Wed into Thurs. NW flow aloft will continue aloft as a
trough sits offshore. Remaining dry and mostly sunny through this
period. Temps will be closer to seasonal norms with highs in the
upper 50s and low 60s on both Wed and Thurs. A brief period of cloud
cover Wed night (dry frontal passage) will keep lows around 40
S of I-64 while little to no clouds and lighter winds will let
temps drop to the mid 30s across the N. Winds finally diminish
to light to calm Thurs night as the high slides overhead,
allowing for good radiational cooling and lows in the low 30s
inland, mid-upper 30s close to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next
  week, bringing a low-end chance for rain.

High confidence remains in northwesterly flow aloft through the end
of the week into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will
remain parked over the SE CONUS. This will continue to support
seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and dry weather
Fri and Sun. Another frontal system approaches later Sunday into
Monday, bringing our next chance for some light rain. Moisture
appears fairly limited at this time with this system (00z EPS and
GEFS each show less than 0.10") with not even enough confidence for
mentionable PoPs. There will also be a decent warm up out ahead of
this front on Sunday as southerly flow increases. Highs on Sunday
will top out in the low 70s inland and upper 60s at the coast.
Monday will have highs in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 00z TAF period. Increasing
mid-level cloud cover is expected overnight as a disturbance
aloft passes over the area. Clouds clear late tonight into early
Wed morning with mostly clear skies expected on Wed. SW winds
of 5-10 kt continue tonight, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt at ORF/PHF/ECG by around 10z Wed. WSW/SW winds
increase to ~15 kt with gusts ~25kt Wed. There is also the
potential for a brief period of LLWS at ECG early Wed morning
(~10-12z Wed), however, confidence was too low to add to the TAF.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday with breezy conditions during
the afternoon hours through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EST Tuesday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waters into Wednesday.

- Strong W/SW winds continue Wednesday night into Thursday.

Evening analysis shows strong low pressure over eastern Canada
and 1030mb high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast. Winds
locally are W 15-25 kt with gusts to 30kt in the Ches Bay and
coastal waters. In the rivers and Currituck Sound winds are W
15-20 with gusts to 25 kt. Waves in the bay are 2-4 ft with
seas 4-6 ft (highest well offshore).

All Gale Warnings have been expired and SCAs are in effect for
all water through Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains
very steep between the low in Canada and high pressure building
in from the SW. Winds become SW tonight, remaining in the 20-25
kt range with gusts up to 30 kt. A passing disturbance well to
the north will compress the gradient again on Wednesday with SW
winds potentially gusting for a period 30-35 kt offshore. Local
wind probs only show around a 30% chance for gales so no
additional headlines expected. Waves in the bay will maintain
2-4 ft through early Thursday, diminishing to 1-3 ft thereafter.
Offshore wind direction should keep near-shore seas quite a bit
lower than conditions farther offshore, generally maintaining
4-6 ft through early Thursday. Benign marine conditions are
expected Thursday into the first half of the weekend. SW flow
strengthens ahead of the next system early Sunday with a front
crossing the region early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 640 PM EST Tuesday...

It will be dry and windy Wednesday, with min RH values around
30%, highs in the upper 50s to around 60F, and WSW/SW winds
around 15 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. As such, conditions may be
close to increased fire danger (IFD) criteria. Will continue to
monitor the latest trends to see if RH trends lower. If it does,
a short-fused IFD may be needed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ