868
FXUS61 KAKQ 241716
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1216 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area today, leading to dry i
conditions. Another system impacts the area Tuesday into the
middle of next week, with much cooler and drier conditions to
then follow from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Seasonable and dry conditions expected again today.

Latest analysis shows ~1024 mb high pressure centered just to our NW
with weak CAA ongoing as a secondary cold front crosses the area.
Temperatures are in the mid 30s-40s in most areas. Dry, sunny, and a
bit cooler today with light winds as the high settles over the area.
Forecast highs are in the mid 50s-lower 60s.

The high moves offshore tonight as weak low pressure currently over
the Plains tracks ENE toward the area. Cool with lows in the mid 30s-
lower 40s. There will be an increase in high cloudiness by early Tue
AM as a warm front approaches the area from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday, with showers likely
  Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

- Additional rounds of showers will be possible on Wednesday as a
  cold front moves through.

The weak southern stream system will cross the area Tuesday into
Wednesday while a much stronger surface low occludes over the upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. Weak overrunning moisture brings a gradual
thickening and lowering of cloud cover during the day on Tuesday,
with light rain overspreading the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the FA Tuesday
afternoon. Despite increasing cloud cover, southerly flow will
allows temps to moderate into the 60s Tuesday (with upper 60s-70F
readings expected across SE VA/NE NC). Temperatures will be slower
to warm up across the Piedmont (especially from Louisa to
Farmville), where rain moves in earliest. Temps likely don`t get out
of the 50s here. Showers overspread much of the area Tuesday night
into early Wednesday AM as that southern stream system crosses the
area. Temps remain in the upper 50s-60F Tue night. In fact, some
weak elevated instability moves across the SE 2/3 of the area by
late Tue night. While thunder chances are low, can`t rule out a tstm
or two. PoPs increase to 50-80% area-wide Tuesday night.

The stronger system over the Great Lakes is progged to track NE into
Ontario/Quebec from Wednesday-Wednesday night. This system will drag
a fairly strong cold front through the FA Wed evening-early Wed
night. Showers (with perhaps a rumble of thunder) are possible along
and ahead of the front on Wednesday, with the highest precip chances
shifting to SE VA/NE NC. Rain chances end from WNW-ESE late Wed aftn-
Wed evening with clearing skies expected behind the front Wed night-
early Thu AM. Mild on Wed with highs in the lower 70s in most areas,
but lows fall into the mid 30s-40F Wed night as CAA arrives from the
WNW.

Areal average QPF appears to be meager with this event, with a few a
few tenths of an inch of rain expected from Tue-Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather returns from Thanksgiving Day into
  the weekend.

In the wake of the front, an expansive upper level trough digs down
across the eastern United States, bringing a much cooler, drier
airmass to the area for Thanksgiving Day into next weekend. 850 mb
temps are expected to fall to around -10C by Friday AM. High
temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s,
while temperatures Friday will likely max out only in the mid to
upper 40s. Breezy W-NW winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected on
both days. Lows Thu night will be in the mid 20s-lower 30s. Fri
night will likely be the coldest night of the season so far as ~1033
mb high pressure settles over the area. Forecast lows are in the
lower-mid 20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible
in the Piedmont. Mostly sunny, dry conditions, and cooler
temperatures then linger through the weekend (with a slight
moderating trend expected by Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions across area terminals persist through the 18z TAF
period and into Tuesday evening. Mainly sunny conditions across
the region this aftn will give way to some increasing high
clouds building in from the NNW tonight/overnight. N-NNW at
5-10 kt become light and variable this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday, though
clouds will continue to thicken and lower Tuesday ahead of the
next system. Some scattered showers will be possible at KRIC
Tuesday afternoon, with a better chance for rain showers and
periods of degraded flight conditions Tuesday night (mainly MVFR
w/LCL IFR), as a weak warm front lifts through the region, and
again Wednesday with the passage of the trailing cold front.
Conditions clear out and become VFR all terminals Wed night,
persisting through late week. Chilly late week, with gusty W-NW
winds behind the front forecast to gust to ~20 kt for Thanksgiving
Day through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated winds continue across the local waters this morning,
  though confidence in SCA conditions is decreasing.

- A stronger cold front brings a round of more solid SCAs from
  Wednesday night through the end of the work week.

High pressure has settled across the area this morning. A
reinforcing front moved through the local waters last night, with
ongoing CAA elevating marine winds. As of now, the surge has
underperformed, which may be due to the lagging drier air behind the
front. A few gusts in the Bay and coastal waters have reach 20-25
kts, though those area few and far between with most gusts reaching
10-15 kts. Seas range from 1-3 ft, with waves in the Bay being
measured between 1-2 ft. With winds and seas both lower than
expected, will likely cancel the SCA early. Have decided to let the
SCA ride out for a few more hours since the main push of drier air
has finally moved down the Bay, but not expecting much more of an
increase in winds.

With high pressure over the region, winds will quickly trend down
today. Winds will remain generally sub-SCA through Wednesday
afternoon, but ahead of the next front guidance is suggesting a
brief period of low-end SCA conditions Tuesday night with gusts of
around 20 kt in the bay and 25 kt in the coastal waters. A front
will pass through the local waters on Wednesday night, with strong
CAA expected in its wake. Though water temperatures have dropped
into the 50s, this front will bring a very cold airmass to the area
and solid SCA conditions are expected starting Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Winds will remain elevated through the end of the
week, with the strongest winds looking most likely on Thursday
night. A few gale force wind gusts are not out of the possibility,
mainly in the northern coastal waters, so we will continue to
monitor any trends in regards to these stronger winds and adjust the
forecast as necessary. Seas are forecast to build to 4-5 ft and
waves to 3-4 ft during this prolonged period of higher winds. High
pressure will build across the region by the weekend and winds and
seas/waves will finally start to trend downward on Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...KMC/NB