283
FXUS61 KAKQ 291828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Warm and less humid this afternoon. Another cool night with
  lows in the mid 50s-low 60s.

Yet another pleasant day today with mostly sunny skies,
low humidity, and seasonable temps. Afternoon sfc analysis
indicates high pressure currently over the area, but a cold
front just to the west of the FA. Aloft, the trough persists
over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Latest obs show temps
mostly in the lower 80s with a few spots hanging on the upper
70s.

Cloud cover has been increasing over the last couple of hours as
that front approaches. It will continue to increase overnight as the
front passes through. This should be a dry front- not really
expecting anything in the way of precip. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s in the N and NW to the low 60s in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant weather continues Saturday with a slight chance for
  a shower near the Albemarle Sound during the afternoon and
  early evening.

- Streak of abnormally nice August weather continues Sunday.

12z guidance still shows the front clearing most of the area by
mid morning on Saturday with decreasing clouds and dew points
from N to S during the afternoon. There is increasing confidence
that the front hangs up across our NC counties during the
afternoon so have included slight chance PoPs in these areas.
Not expecting much in the way of QPF with any showers that
manage to form as instability will be lacking. High temps return
to the mid/upper 70s for the northern third of the area with
upper 70s and low 80s SE. Cool and comfortable Saturday night
with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Some of the typically cooler
rural areas may see lows dip into the upper 40s.

Gorgeous again on Sunday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew
points in the 50s. Mean upper troughing remains in place on Sunday
with a short wave moving through the region, likely only resulting
in a few more clouds across the area. Very low chance for a shower
or two across the Piedmont but not confident enough to include in
the forecast at this time. Mostly clear skies expected Sunday night
with lows again in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a
  mainly dry weather pattern to persist into the Labor Day
  holiday and early next week
- Next chance for rain is mid to late week

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through
first half of next week as high pressure remains in control at the
sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for
rain outside of a stray shower looks like it would be mid to late
week as a stronger front approaches the area. 12z model
guidance does develop a low along the front that would travel NE
through the area, but timing differs considerably between the
GFS and ECMWF at the moment. Temps will be generally the same
Mon- Thurs with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows
in the mid- upper 50s inland and low-mid 60s closer to the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

VFR prevails for the 18z TAF period. Will see some increasing
mid level cloud cover through the rest of the day and overnight
as a dry cold front slides through the region. Clouds scatter
out tomorrow afternoon from NW to SE behind the front. Winds
become light and variable overnight, then increase slightly to
5-10kt out of the NNE tomorrow morning. Not expecting much in
the way of precip with this front, though there is a small
chance of a brief shower at ECG tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

- A cold front crosses the waters this evening into tonight.

- A prolonged period of slightly elevated onshore flow is expected
beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week.

A cold front continues to approach from the N-NNE this afternoon as
benign marine conditions prevail across the marine area with
variable winds of 5-10 kt and 2 ft seas/1 ft waves. The cold front
crosses the waters this evening into tonight, with winds becoming
NNE in its wake. Wind speeds are expected to remain around 10 to 15
knots tonight into Saturday. High pressure builds south into the
area Sunday into early next week while weak low pressure develops
well off the Carolina coast. The gradient between these two features
will lead to onshore (ENE-NE) flow starting Sunday and continuing
early next week. Wind speeds will average 10-15 kt during this time
(highest S), but a period of 15-20 kt winds is possible from Mon-Tue
south of Cape Henry. Winds relax a bit on Wed with mainly sub-SCA
winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas/waves should remain 2 to 3 feet/1 to 2 feet through Sunday,
although a brief increase to ~2 feet waves in the Chesapeake Bay is
likely late tonight into Saturday morning. The persistent onshore
flow will result in building seas next week, with 4-5 ft seas
forecast by Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly
subsiding). SCAs may be needed for the coastal waters for seas
starting Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC/RHR
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI