870
FXUS61 KAKQ 162014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary along the
Virginia North Carolina border tonight, before washing out
across the area on Tuesday. An upper level ridge expands
northward Wednesday, leading to hot weather with lower rain
chances Wednesday, followed by hot conditions Thursday, with
scattered showers and storms as the next cold front approaches.
Mainly dry for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 AM Tuesday for NE NC,
  but may be cancelled early.

- Warmer Tuesday with highs into the mid to upper 80s for most
  of the area. A few strong storms possible across the NW late.


The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure offshore
of the VA Capes, with high pressure off the New England coast.
Aloft, the flow is from the WNW with the local area on the
northern periphery of an upper ridge centered from the Bahamas
to the eastern Gulf. A sfc front is nearly stationary along or
just S of the VA-NC border this aftn, with a rather cool airmass
for the time of year in place N of the boundary. Temperatures
are only in the 70s except in far southern VA and NE NC away
from the coast where readings are in the lower 80s. In fact, a
few place over the far N have struggled to get to 70F, with low
clouds and drizzle for much of the day.

For this evening, will maintain the Flood Watch for our NE NC
counties for now, but the general trend has been for the heavy
rain to move ESE from areas upstream, staying south of the local
area (along and S of the Albemarle Sound). Therefore, will
allow the evening shift to assess the trends, and the potential
for an early cancellation. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000+ J/Kg of
ML CAPE S of the VA-NC border, with PWAT values at or above
2.00" but lapse rates are quite weak. Additional rainfall totals
will be less than 1" for most of NE NC, though due to the
ground saturation from yesterday and last night`s showers, this
area will be prone to isolated instances flash flooding. A few
showers will be possible overnight, even to the north, but
rainfall amounts will generally be light. Some patchy fog/low
stratus is likely early Tuesday morning, but do not expect
widespread dense fog. Lows will range from the mid 60s N to the
lower 70s S.

Tuesday will tend to begin with low clouds, and possibly patchy
drizzle, but upper level heights are forecast to rise, as the
next trough approaches from the OH/TN Valley, and the upper ridge
across Florida expands N. This should lead to increasing
amounts of sunshine by late morning/early aftn, allowing highs
to rise into the mid to upper 80s by later aftn (upper 70s to
lower 80s eastern shore). By late aftn, another shortwave, this
one a bit stronger, is expected to approach from the west, and
with decent instability parameters developing (at least well
inland), some showers/storms will be possible, mainly after 3
PM. Shear values are not impressive (20-30 kt at best), but
mid level lapse rates are a bit better than the past several
days and may compensate for the lack of shear. The primary
threat from any severe storm is damaging winds, with the threat
mostly limited to the nrn piedmont. SPC maintains a Marginal
Risk for severe weather in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible
  in the SE.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday.

Aside from a few showers/storms late in the day Wed, conditions
should be mainly dry. With upper level ridging expands north towards
the region, summerlike heat is expected with highs rising into
the low-mid 90s for most of the area.Given the pattern, and
with the recent wet spell, have kept high temperatures both Wed
and Thursday on the cooler edge of guidance, but with dew pts at
or slightly higher than MOS numbers. Expect heat indices to
peak around 105F in the SE (where Heat headlines may be needed),
to the upper 90s to ~103F elsewhere. Given the high heat and
humidity, ample instability is expected along and ahead of a
cold front. In addition, model mid level lapse rates are
currently showing values >6C/Km, along with bulk shear values of
30-40kt. SPC has most of the region in a Day 4 15% Risk
(slight), and this would be mainly for wind, though large hail
will be possible as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

Scattered showers/strong storms possible Thu evening, followed
by dry weather for Fri, probably lasting through the weekend.
While the NBM does not have any rain chances, there could be a
few storms Sat night/early Sunday across mainly NE sections of
the FA as both the GFS/ECMWF and ensembles are showing a
shortwave diving SSE from the Great Lakes (will continue to
monitor this over the next few days). Beyond that, there is
good model consensus that an upper level trough locks in place
over the NW CONUS, with a strong upper ridge across the central
and eastern CONUS. Some of the models depict 500 mb heights
rising to nearly 600 dm. The period next week looks quite hot
for a prolonged period given this setup. Humidity level might be
slightly lower given this ridge being more of continental
origin, though with the recent wet spell, this is uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Widespread IFR/MVFR restrictions persist this aftn, except
across NE NC where it is mainly VFR. Winds remain E-NE at
5-10kt, except over NC where they are out of the S-SE.

Outlook: CIGs fall back into IFR/LIFR overnight into early
Tuesday, with patchy fog/low stratus and possibly drizzle.
IMproving conditions late Tue morning, and then mainly VFR by
aftn outside of widely scattered SHRA and TSRA, that may
continue into the evening. A cold front will bring another
round of scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night. Dry/VFR
Fri-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area through midweek
  outside of convection.

A quasi-stationary front was located along the southern border
of the forecast area as of afternoon analysis. It will remain
near southern reaches of the area through tomorrow before
lifting N as a warm front once again. Latest obs indicate E/NE
flow at 5-10kt. Buoy obs show seas of 2-4ft with highest seas
off the Eastern Shore. Waves in the bay and river are 1-2ft.
Onshore flow at 5-10kt continues tonight and through tomorrow,
becoming SE tomorrow afternoon. Scattered convection tomorrow
afternoon/evening may lead to isolated instances of elevated
winds/waves. Winds become S, then SW Tues night into Wednesday.
Seas will be 2-3ft and waves generally 1ft or less (higher in
mouth of bay). Expecting breezier conditions Wed into Thurs
ahead of a cold front. SW winds of ~15kt expected Wed, then
increasing slightly heading into Thurs as the front gets closer.
SCAs may be needed late Wed night through Thurs evening- best
chance is for the lower bay and James River.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Onshore flow over the last couple of days has led to slightly
elevated tidal anomalies, particularly in the upper bay and tidal
portions of the Rappahannock/Potomac. While the upcoming high tide
should be lower than the this morning`s tide, there could still be
some lingering nuisance flooding. A Coastal Flood Statement was
issued for the upper Rappahannock River (Tappahannock gage) where
level may near the minor flood threshold this evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ