091
FXUS61 KAKQ 181717
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
117 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend starts today and continues Sunday ahead of the
next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance
for gusty showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer this afternoon. Clouds gradually clear from west to
  east over the next few hours into mid-afternoon.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1020+mb sfc high pressure in
place and centered along and just offshore of the east coast
this morning. Low pressure remains in place over Hudson Bay,
with the associated cold front draped across the western Great
Lakes into the central plains. A weak warm front extends south
and east of the low, from the eastern Great Lakes into the lower
mid- Atlantic, and is lifting across the local area as of this
writing. Some mid and upper level cloud cover continues to cross
the area late this morning, but will gradually scour out over
eastern VA and the Lower Eastern Shore into early this
afternoon.

Low-level flow swings around from the SSW to the SSE late today
and this evening, as sfc high pressure translates off the
Carolina coast. Late morning temps in the upper 50s to low 60s
at midday still look good to warm into the mid 70s for most
inland areas, with upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

Mainly clear to start. PWs slowly ramp up this evening, as winds
turn SSW, allowing slow WAA aloft ahead of the approaching
system. Remaining dry, but the increasing cloud cover and
return flow will bring a milder night with lows mainly in the
50s to around 60 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area
  Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and
  chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

S and SW winds increase on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the surface cold front. Winds gust 25-30mph inland and up
to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening. We warm
a few more degrees Sunday with highs well into the 70s across
the area. Some spots may even see temps in the low 80s across
portions of SE VA and NE NC. 00z guidance has come into decent
agreement for the Sunday night cold frontal passage. PoPs
increase across the west by late afternoon but especially into
the evening hours, spreading toward the I-95 corridor before
midnight and toward the coast thereafter. QPF has come up a bit
with most guidance showing between 0.25-0.5" for the
northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE
half. Forecast soundings continue to show very little
instability but with strong dynamics aloft we could see a few
lightning flashes as a strongly-forced convective line
transverses the area. SPC has included most of the area in a
Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe storms Sunday night.
Very strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface
with this convective line, despite the less than favorable
diurnal timing across the region. PoPs drop off quickly from
west to east after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn
westerly and remain breezy overnight. Low temps Sunday night
mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Cooler/drier air filters into the area on Monday with clouds
clearing out by the afternoon. Staying breezy through the afternoon
with temps in the mid to upper 60s. Winds become light SW Monday
night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into
  Wednesday with limited moisture.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather return for the mid to
  late week period.

Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next front with highs mainly in the low
70s. Precip chances still look pretty low with this front but a few
showers are possible, mainly from the Northern Neck into the Eastern
Shore Tuesday night. Cold advection behind the front will knock
temps back into the 40s and low 50s overnight. Mainly dry and cool
for the rest of the week with highs generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon look to
prevail through the 18z/18 TAF period. Satellite imagery shows
some thinning high level clouds pushing offshore of the mid-
Atlantic coast, and mainly sunny/SKC conditions prevailing
across the region. SSW winds back to the S/SSE 5-10 kt by early
evening, then become SSW again late tonight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through most of
Sunday. S/SW winds increase late Sunday morning into the
afternoon to ~12-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt ahead of an
approaching cold front. The crossing cold front will bring a
chance for gusty showers, mainly Sunday night. It still does
not appear to be a significant rain event, and therefore only
brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry weather
returns Monday but remaining breezy in the cooler, post-frontal
airmass.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure moves offshore later today with sub-advisory
  conditions expected.

- Small Craft Advisories are very likely Sunday into Monday with the
  next frontal passage.

- Occasional 34+ kt gusts are possible both ahead of and behind
  the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning.
  Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage
  will likely necessitate SMWs.

Benign marine conditions prevail early this morning with high
pressure nearby. W winds are aob 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas in most
areas (and ~1 ft waves on the Ches Bay). 4-5 ft seas prevail across
the NE NC coastal waters due to residual swell, and will let that
SCA run through 4 AM. Sub-SCA with light/variable winds through
early aftn due to the surface high nearby. Winds shift to the S-SE
and increase to ~15 kt by early Sunday morning.

Marine conditions deteriorate on Sunday (and especially Sunday night-
early Monday AM) as deepening low pressure tracks just to the north
of the area. The associated (rather sharp) cold front is progged to
quickly cross the local waters Sunday night to Monday morning (most
likely between midnight and 3 AM). SCA conditions are expected both
before and after the front as southerly winds will increase to 20-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the coastal waters and Ches Bay by
Sunday evening. Could see a few 34 kt gusts out of the south across
the northern coastal waters from 9 PM-1 AM Sun night (right ahead of
the front), but will continue to note that model guidance tends to
overestimate the frequency of gale-force gusts in WAA/southerly wind
regimes. Local wind probs continues to show a 30-60% chance of gale-
force gusts (highest in the coastal waters), so will continue to
monitor, but have low confidence in this occuring. A line of gusty
showers will likely accompany the FROPA Sunday night, which could
produce 34+ kt gusts. Think that SMWs will likely be needed. Winds
will then shift to the W at 20-25 kt (with frequent 30 kt gusts)
Monday morning, decreasing throughout the day to 15-20 kt in the
Ches Bay and coastal waters. Could also see occasional 34 kt gusts
out of the west for a few hours following the FROPA Mon AM. Sub-SCA
winds are expected Mon night-Tue AM before another round of SCAs is
possible late Tue-Wed as another cold front is progged to approach
and cross the waters.

Waves and seas will stay below SCA criteria today at 3-4 ft in the
coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay before building back to 5-
7 ft Sun evening/night. Waves build to 3-4 ft on the bay during this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Water levels are expected to rise in the upper bay starting today
but especially tonight-Sunday (due to the increasing south winds
ahead of the front). Statements have been issued for today`s high
tide due to nuisance to locally minor flooding on the bay side of
the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac.

Widespread minor tidal flooding is likely during the Sun AM/early
aftn high tide from Windmill Point northward, with localized
moderate flooding possible on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore.
The best chance for moderate flooding is during the high tide cycles
on Sunday/Sunday night as winds become SW then W behind the front.
Note that there will be a quick increase in tidal anomalies on the
eastern shore when the wind becomes west immediately following the
FROPA, and how close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate
whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just
minor) Sunday night. Water levels gradually fall early next
week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...