


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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091 FXUS61 KAKQ 181717 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 117 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend starts today and continues Sunday ahead of the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for gusty showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Warmer this afternoon. Clouds gradually clear from west to east over the next few hours into mid-afternoon. Latest analysis reveals broad 1020+mb sfc high pressure in place and centered along and just offshore of the east coast this morning. Low pressure remains in place over Hudson Bay, with the associated cold front draped across the western Great Lakes into the central plains. A weak warm front extends south and east of the low, from the eastern Great Lakes into the lower mid- Atlantic, and is lifting across the local area as of this writing. Some mid and upper level cloud cover continues to cross the area late this morning, but will gradually scour out over eastern VA and the Lower Eastern Shore into early this afternoon. Low-level flow swings around from the SSW to the SSE late today and this evening, as sfc high pressure translates off the Carolina coast. Late morning temps in the upper 50s to low 60s at midday still look good to warm into the mid 70s for most inland areas, with upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Mainly clear to start. PWs slowly ramp up this evening, as winds turn SSW, allowing slow WAA aloft ahead of the approaching system. Remaining dry, but the increasing cloud cover and return flow will bring a milder night with lows mainly in the 50s to around 60 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. S and SW winds increase on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the surface cold front. Winds gust 25-30mph inland and up to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening. We warm a few more degrees Sunday with highs well into the 70s across the area. Some spots may even see temps in the low 80s across portions of SE VA and NE NC. 00z guidance has come into decent agreement for the Sunday night cold frontal passage. PoPs increase across the west by late afternoon but especially into the evening hours, spreading toward the I-95 corridor before midnight and toward the coast thereafter. QPF has come up a bit with most guidance showing between 0.25-0.5" for the northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE half. Forecast soundings continue to show very little instability but with strong dynamics aloft we could see a few lightning flashes as a strongly-forced convective line transverses the area. SPC has included most of the area in a Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe storms Sunday night. Very strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface with this convective line, despite the less than favorable diurnal timing across the region. PoPs drop off quickly from west to east after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn westerly and remain breezy overnight. Low temps Sunday night mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. Cooler/drier air filters into the area on Monday with clouds clearing out by the afternoon. Staying breezy through the afternoon with temps in the mid to upper 60s. Winds become light SW Monday night with lows in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with limited moisture. - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather return for the mid to late week period. Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next front with highs mainly in the low 70s. Precip chances still look pretty low with this front but a few showers are possible, mainly from the Northern Neck into the Eastern Shore Tuesday night. Cold advection behind the front will knock temps back into the 40s and low 50s overnight. Mainly dry and cool for the rest of the week with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon look to prevail through the 18z/18 TAF period. Satellite imagery shows some thinning high level clouds pushing offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast, and mainly sunny/SKC conditions prevailing across the region. SSW winds back to the S/SSE 5-10 kt by early evening, then become SSW again late tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through most of Sunday. S/SW winds increase late Sunday morning into the afternoon to ~12-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The crossing cold front will bring a chance for gusty showers, mainly Sunday night. It still does not appear to be a significant rain event, and therefore only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry weather returns Monday but remaining breezy in the cooler, post-frontal airmass. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - High pressure moves offshore later today with sub-advisory conditions expected. - Small Craft Advisories are very likely Sunday into Monday with the next frontal passage. - Occasional 34+ kt gusts are possible both ahead of and behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage will likely necessitate SMWs. Benign marine conditions prevail early this morning with high pressure nearby. W winds are aob 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas in most areas (and ~1 ft waves on the Ches Bay). 4-5 ft seas prevail across the NE NC coastal waters due to residual swell, and will let that SCA run through 4 AM. Sub-SCA with light/variable winds through early aftn due to the surface high nearby. Winds shift to the S-SE and increase to ~15 kt by early Sunday morning. Marine conditions deteriorate on Sunday (and especially Sunday night- early Monday AM) as deepening low pressure tracks just to the north of the area. The associated (rather sharp) cold front is progged to quickly cross the local waters Sunday night to Monday morning (most likely between midnight and 3 AM). SCA conditions are expected both before and after the front as southerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the coastal waters and Ches Bay by Sunday evening. Could see a few 34 kt gusts out of the south across the northern coastal waters from 9 PM-1 AM Sun night (right ahead of the front), but will continue to note that model guidance tends to overestimate the frequency of gale-force gusts in WAA/southerly wind regimes. Local wind probs continues to show a 30-60% chance of gale- force gusts (highest in the coastal waters), so will continue to monitor, but have low confidence in this occuring. A line of gusty showers will likely accompany the FROPA Sunday night, which could produce 34+ kt gusts. Think that SMWs will likely be needed. Winds will then shift to the W at 20-25 kt (with frequent 30 kt gusts) Monday morning, decreasing throughout the day to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and coastal waters. Could also see occasional 34 kt gusts out of the west for a few hours following the FROPA Mon AM. Sub-SCA winds are expected Mon night-Tue AM before another round of SCAs is possible late Tue-Wed as another cold front is progged to approach and cross the waters. Waves and seas will stay below SCA criteria today at 3-4 ft in the coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay before building back to 5- 7 ft Sun evening/night. Waves build to 3-4 ft on the bay during this time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Water levels are expected to rise in the upper bay starting today but especially tonight-Sunday (due to the increasing south winds ahead of the front). Statements have been issued for today`s high tide due to nuisance to locally minor flooding on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac. Widespread minor tidal flooding is likely during the Sun AM/early aftn high tide from Windmill Point northward, with localized moderate flooding possible on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. The best chance for moderate flooding is during the high tide cycles on Sunday/Sunday night as winds become SW then W behind the front. Note that there will be a quick increase in tidal anomalies on the eastern shore when the wind becomes west immediately following the FROPA, and how close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just minor) Sunday night. Water levels gradually fall early next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...AJB/RHR AVIATION...MAM/RHR MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...