390
FXUS61 KAKQ 291934
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
234 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally cool weather continues through next week. The next chance
for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely on
Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across
portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Another chance for rain arrives Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind.

- Cool tonight with lows in the mid to upper 20s inland and 30s along
  the coast.

High pressure was centered over the forecast area this afternoon,
allowing for mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temps as of 140 PM
were generally in the lower 40s. The flow aloft was quasi- zonal
behind a departing trough over New England. Well to our W (near
Kansas City), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low continue to
develop. High pressure will remain over the area today before moving
offshore this evening into tonight. As a result, expect much lighter
winds today with daytime wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite
similar temps (mid 40s for most) for highs. Sunny/mostly sunny skies
are also expected through most of the afternoon. Thicker high clouds
then overspread the region tonight as the high shifts offshore.
Although modest WAA is expected ahead of the next system, overnight
lows should still be cold with mid to upper 20s inland and 30s near
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Light rain is possible Sunday.

- Cool and dry conditions return on Monday.

Low pressure is expected to track from the Midwest to the Great
Lakes from Sat night into Sun. This will bring an increase in
moisture across the area. While surface temps will be cold tonight,
forecast soundings show a decent amount of dry air in the lower
levels. As such, precipitation likely remains to our west through
sunrise on Sun. However, cannot completely rule out a brief period
of freezing drizzle or sleet before 8 AM Sun (HREF probs for >0.01"
of freezing rain were 10-15% across western Louisa and Fluvanna).
That being said, confidence is too low to reflect in the forecast
with precip totals not likely to reach above a trace even if precip
does occur. The lower levels should saturate by late Sun morning
into Sun afternoon as temps rise above freezing. A line of showers
is expected to move east through the day with the highest PoPs (35-
55%) Sun afternoon. Any rain moves offshore by early Sun night.
Overall precip totals continue to look light with generally <0.15"
across most of the area and around 0.2" across the Eastern Shore.

Skies gradually clear Sun night with lows in the mid-upper 20s
across the Piedmont and upper 30s across far SE VA/NE NC. High
pressure briefly moves in Mon with sunny/mostly sunny skies and
highs in the mid-upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across
  portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

- Generally cool weather continues through the week.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night into Tue evening (90-100% PoPs). However,
the exact track of the low and amount of cold air in place remains a
bit uncertain. The general model consensus is for the high to
quickly retreat to off of the Maine/Nova Scotia coast by early Tue
morning before moving farther offshore by Tue afternoon. Meanwhile,
model guidance continues to show an area of low pressure tracking
across the Southeast and along or just inland of the coast Mon night
into Tue before deepening as it moves NE along the Mid-Atlantic and
New England coastline Tue afternoon into Tue night.

Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo
for snow for the local area), the marginal cold air in place ahead
of the system, and the primary low tracking along the coast (or
inland), this continues to look like a rain event with a brief
period of freezing rain (and perhaps a bit of sleet) at the onset
(as opposed to snow) possible across the Piedmont late Mon night
into early Tue morning. As such, have continued to remove snow from
the forecast and have a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and
rain at the onset across the Piedmont. Any wintry precip likely
quickly changes over to plain rain Tue morning as temps warm
above freezing. Will note that EPS did trend a bit farther SE
with the low, however, the NAM showed a track well inland with
essentially no wintry weather. While it`s possible the low
trends farther SE, potentially bringing freezing rain farther
SE, confidence in any prolonged period of freezing rain
continues to diminish. For now, have kept any freezing rain
mention west of I-95, however, even this is fairly generous
compared to what most model guidance shows. In fact, it`s
entirely possible that all of the FA rains above freezing while
the precip moves in. NBM probs for 0.01" of freezing rain have
now dropped to 15-20% across just the NW Piedmont.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. While winter weather
chances are low, confidence continues to increase in widespread
rain. EPS probs for >1" of rain were 50-70% across SE VA/NE NC with
probs for >2" of rain only around 10-20%. The NBM probs for >1" of
rain were 40-60% east of I-95 and 60-70% across far SE VA/NE NC. As
such, a widespread wetting rain is expected with 0.5-1" across the
NW half of the area and 1"+ possible across SE VA, NE NC, and the
Eastern Shore. Therefore, WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO on Tue
due to the potential for locally heavy rainfall of up to around 2"
across the aforementioned areas. Additionally, there is a
chance for some additional rain Fri into Sat as another system
moves into the area (50-55% PoPs). Given uncertainty with the
late week system, have kept only rain mentioned for now.

Highs are expected to range from around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue,
mid-upper 40s Wed, upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu, and 40s Fri and
Sat. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F
SE Mon night (the coldest temps likely occur before the precip
arrives). However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the
Tue system, and therefore, temps may be a bit warmer Mon night. For
now, have used a CONSALL and NBM blend, but even that may be too
cold. Lows in the mid-upper 20s NW to mid-upper 30s SE Tue night,
mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s across far SE VA/NE NC Wed
night, lower 20s NW to lower 30s SE (mid 30s along the coast) Thu
night, and upper 20s NW to upper 30s SE Fri night are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon prevail
through tonight, with dry wx expected. A 5-8 kt N/NW wind at
coastal terminals (SBY/ORF/ECG) today, with light and variable
winds at PHF/RIC and farther inland. High clouds overspread the
region late this afternoon, thickening and lowering late this
evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Rain chances
arrive Sunday afternoon, as early as midday at KRIC and vicinity,
shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun night, as the
front crosses into the area. Some short-lived sub-VFR flight
restrictions MVFR and perhaps even some LLWS will be possible
as the front crosses the area late Sun aftn and evening.

Outlook: Winds become N behind the front overnight Sunday and
Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the
coast. The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday,
with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed,
bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions
are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through
much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions return this evening, as high pressure
  settles over the region.

- Another period of SCAs is in place for Sunday night/Monday
  behind the next cold front.

- A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine
  conditions Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday of next week.
  Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible.

Latest analysis reveals 1034mb sfc high pressure in place over
the lower mid-Atlantic waters this afternoon. Winds have become
NNE and have diminished to 5-10 kt. Seas were 1-2 ft north, 2-3
ft central and southern coastal waters, and ~1ft in the E VA
Rivers, Ches Bay and the Currituck Sound.

A weak inverted/coastal trough has begun to take shape offshore of
the coastal Carolinas this afternoon, and will develop further into
this evening. This will serve to veer winds around to the E-SE ~10
kt tonight, and eventually the SSE ~10-15 kt tomorrow. Winds don`t
begin to increase until late afternoon and evening Sunday, as the
pressure gradient slowly compresses ahead of an approaching (weak)
cold front, which will cross the waters Sunday evening. In-house
wind probs are now supporting a 60-80% of winds AOA 18ft around and
after midnight tomorrow night into Monday morning over the Bay,
slightly lower 50-70% over the lower James River. Have put up SCA
for these areas for late tomorrow night/Monday morning. It`s
possible the coastal waters could reach low-end Small Craft
conditions by around or just before sunrise Monday morning, but with
the better CAA...and hence chances of SCA-level winds...waiting
until after 12z/Monday, will wait for SCA over the Atlantic coast
and Sound for now. Subsequent wind waves will also likely build seas
rather quickly later Mon morning into the afternoon, with seas
building to 5-7 ft, waves to 2-4 ft.

High pressure again returns over the area on Monday aftn/evening
into early Tuesday morning. The brief lull won`t last long, as wind
increase again on Tuesday. A stronger southern stream storm system
lifts out of the Gulf Coast region, lifting along the stalled
frontal boundary and lifts along or just offshore of the Carolina
coast for Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, winds should be out of
the E-SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley
with the surface high retreating to the NE. But as the coastal low
deepens along the Carolina coast, expect the winds to back
around to the NW and intensify Tuesday night, as the low
pressure off the coast deepens and heads off to the NE.
Solid/strong SCA are expected for all waters late Tue and Wed.
GEFS/EPS wind probs for gale conditions have increased slightly
to 40-60% during this period, and are still no higher than
20-30% in the Bay. However, as model confidence in the sfc low
track and timing improves, would expect there is a good chance
that at least a small window of Gale Force gusts, with the
caveat that the aforementioned low will likely be quick to eject
NE away from the region Tuesday evening. Winds slowly diminish
Wednesday morning, as the deepening low exits offshore of the
New England coast, as chilly 1034+mb high pressure settles east
from the plains.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...MAM