805
FXUS61 KAKQ 160815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front passes through this morning ushering in much drier air
and gusty winds. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast
for today. High pressure briefly builds in on Monday before the
next weather system brings a quick chance of rain for parts of
the area later Tuesday. Scattered light rain chances may linger
into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

-  Cold front passing through the area this morning ushering in much
drier air and windy conditions. Red Flag Warning is in effect for
most of the area for critical fire weather conditions.

Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front just to the west
of our CWA, moving to the southeast. A band of showers accompanying
the front has tried to approach us through the night, but continues
to weakens. Left a slight chance of a shower for the Eastern
Shore and far northern locations just in case a few sprinkles
make it to the ground. Rain chances will end by sunrise.

The main story for today will be the very dry air rushing in behind
the cold front. Guidance has dewpoints plummeting into the lower 20s
to upper teens from west to east by mid-day/early afternoon.
Additionally, the pressure gradient is tightening significantly
around a broad area of low pressure along the US/Canadian border as
it moves eastward into New England today. Westerly/downsloping winds
have already picked up across the area as of early this morning, but
will continue to strengthen throughout the day. The strongest winds
are expected after mid-day through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts
up to 25-35mph are forecast for most locations, with the
Eastern Shore seeing gusts upwards of 35-40mph. This dry and
windy weather will create critical fire weather conditions for
the entire area. Please see the Fire Weather Section below for
details on the Red Flag Warning and Increased Fire Danger
statement. Bottom line up front: do not do any activities today
that could create a spark or initiate burning as fires will be
able to spread rapidly. High temperatures will be able to warm
into the upper 60s and lower 70s south of I-64 as the
downsloping outweighs any cold air advection initially.
Northern locations will hover in the lower 60s. The cold air
will push in overnight though as low temperatures drop into the
lower 30s for the northwest/northern locations and mid to upper
30s elsewhere. Winds will subside for everyone inland, though
coastal spots and the Eastern Shore will keep the breeziness
around into the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler on Monday with breezy conditions persisting for the Eastern
Shore.

- Next weather system moves in later Tuesday with rain chances for
portions of the area.

The pressure gradient will start to relax on Monday as the low
pressure moves off into Nova Scotia and surface high pressure
builds in locally. This will allow winds to be much less
elevated for most of the area, though some breezes to 15-20mph
will be possible inland. Coastal locations and the Eastern Shore
will still see gusts up to 25-30mph through the day as the back
edge of the pressure gradient lingers. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler as highs range from the upper 50s in the
southwest to barely reaching 50 degrees across the northeast
(including the Eastern Shore). Overnight lows will be the
coldest of the period as they dip below freezing for everyone
except the immediate coast. Rural inland and the typical cooler
spots will bottom out in the upper 20s.

Clouds will be on the increase as we wake up Tuesday morning due to
a weakening surface low pressure approaching from the west. Models
generally agree that rain chances increase from west to east late
Tuesday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. However,
current trends now indicate that most of the 30-40% rain chances
will be north of US-460. Not expecting a super beneficial rainfall
from it, but due to being so dry lately, any rainfall is welcome.
Overnight model runs are showing maybe a quarter to possibly
half an inch if we`re lucky, and again, primarily across the
north. High temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 50s
for the south and lower 50s for the north. Overnight temps won`t
be quite as frigid, dipping into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Wednesday before gradually warming temperatures for the
remainder of the week.

- Passing disturbances may create slight chances of rain.

Some lingering showers may be possible across the east first thing
Wednesday morning as the aforementioned weather system moves
offshore. High pressure briefly builds in for the day though
temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid to
upper 60s across the S/SW and mid to upper 50s for the NE. Skies
will stay partly cloudy as another disturbance approaches the area
Thursday. Details don`t exactly align on the latest guidances, but
a slight chance of a shower has been added for the northern half of
the area Thursday morning/early afternoon. A low pressure system is
still expected to move out of the Midwest into the Great Lakes
region Friday into Saturday, but models are weakening it as it
moves east now. This doesn`t give us as strong of southerly flow
as models were showing 24 hours ago. Instead, it`s more
west/southwesterly ahead of the advancing system. High
temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Friday, with the potential of some rain chances to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals today. SCT mid to
high level clouds will continue to pass through into the morning
as a cold front drops into the area. This front may produce a
few -SHRA across northern locations, including SBY (included a
PROB30 through 10Z). As winds strengthen off the surface,
westerly LLWS of 40-45kt will persist through ~12Z. After that,
NW surface winds will increase to 15-22kt with gusts up to
25-30kt for most of the day. Skies will become SKC behind the
frontal passage. Eastern locations such as ORF/SBY will remain a
bit breezy (10-15kt) into the overnight, though inland
terminals should subside AOB 10kt after 00Z.

Outlook: Expect dry weather and less breezy conditions on Monday,
except for gusts to 20-25kt persisting at SBY. A chance of -RA and
degraded flight conditions will return later Tuesday into early
Wednesday as a quick-moving weather system passes through,
especially for RIC-PHF-SBY and north.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect later today into Monday morning
  for the Ocean N of Cape Charles and the Bay N of Windmill
  Point, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all other
  zones.

- Winds remain elevated Monday, then drop off significantly
  Tuesday.

SW winds of 15-25 kt prevail early this morning in the warm
airmass out ahead of an approaching cold front. The pressure
gradient will tend to weaken for a few hrs this morning and
winds may drop off to 10-20 kt as the winds shift to the W.

The cold front will cross the waters late this morning through
early aftn, though the best CAA doesn`t arrive until late
afternoon/early evening and will maximize this evening through
the early overnight period. The rivers (and far northern Bay
and Ocean) may see the strongest winds this aftn, while the
remainder of the Ocean, especially S of Cape Charles may not
really see the stronger winds until late aftn/early evening
other than perhaps a brief uptick with the wind shift. Kept the
headlines as they were, with the best chance for a longer
duration Gale event (with gusts to 35-40 kt) being confined to
the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. The Bay N of Windmill
Pt and the Ocean from Parramore to Cape Charles will likely see
frequent gusts to around 35 kt for a 3-6 hr period this evening.
Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible elsewhere, mainly this
evening, but think the threat for these areas is best handled
with a high-end SCA and an SMW if needed for ~2 hrs. Gale
Warnings are in effect until 12z/7 AM Monday, though SCAs will
be needed for all of the ocean and bay through the day Monday as
residual CAA continues on the waters. Another uptick/surge in
winds is probable Monday night as the pattern depicts sfc high
pressure still W of the waters until The day Tuesday. This could
allow for additional CAA with SCAs lingering through Monday
night (mainly the upper Bay). Much lighter winds are then
expected Tuesday as the high settles in from the W. A weak
system passes through the area late Tuesday night/Wednesday,
likely shifting the winds to the NNE though at this time no
significant low pressure system is depicted by any of the models
so sub-SCA continue through late in the week.


Seas average 2-3 ft through this evening, building to 3-6 ft
(locally 7 ft out 20 nm) late tonight through Sunday/early Monday.
The offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building much
higher. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 1-2 ft today, then
2-5 ft late tonight through Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

A dry cold front will cross the region this morning with gusty winds
and rapidly falling humidity values through the afternoon. Lack
of appreciable rainfall and very dry fuels will combine with
these gusty winds to create dangerous fire weather conditions
across most of the area Sunday morning through late afternoon.

After coordination with neighboring offices and local forestry
officials, as well as the Storm Prediction Center highlighting
an area of critical fire weather conditions, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for all of our Virginia counties/independent
cities except the Eastern Shore. The Red Flag Warning also
includes Northampton, Hertford, Gates and Bertie counties in
North Carolina. Areas not in the Warning (the MD/VA Eastern
Shore and coastal NE NC) are in a Special Weather Statement for
Increased Fire Danger, excluding the Outer Banks. All burning is
highly discouraged and extreme care must be exercised with any
sources of sparks (power tools, dragging chains, hot motors,
discarded cigarettes, etc) today as fires will be capable of
spreading very rapidly.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EST this morning through this
     afternoon for MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EST this morning through this
     afternoon for NCZ015>017-031-032.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EST this morning through this
     afternoon for VAZ099-100.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
     095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ630-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/JKP
MARINE...LKB/SW
FIRE WEATHER...