700
FXUS61 KAKQ 090617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
117 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the southeast coast slowly pushes farther
offshore, with any lingering light precipitation ending. Very
cold this morning, then turning gradually milder through midweek.
Low-end shower chances are expected with the next system late
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 115 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect through mid-morning for
  likely areas of black ice over central, south central, and
  southeastern VA into northeast NC.

- Drying out with sunshine today, though highs remain in the
  30s for much of the area, to near 40 along the coast.

The latest WX analysis reveals chilly though modifying 1026+mb
sfc high pressure building across the local area this morning.
h5 shortwave and its attendant surface low that brought snow to
the southern 2/3 of the region is now sliding farther off the
mid- Atlantic coast, with very cold air sweeping into the region
early this morning. Temperatures are already in the upper teens
to low 20s out in the piedmont, low to mid 20s over the I-95
corridor and upper 20s to low 30s at 06z. Clouds have cleared
out over most of the area north of US-58 west of the bay, with
clearing skies over SE VA and the Eastern Shore early this
morning. Considering the fresh snow for the southern 2/3 of the
area, clearing sky and incoming colder and drier air, early
morning low temps in the low to mid teens still looking good
well west of I-95 w/ upper teens/lower 20s for most, and upper
20s near the coast. Diminishing winds should make for wind chill
values not too dissimilar from air temperatures. The Winter
Weather Advisory will be maintained through the morning rush to
account for likely icy spots due to any snow/slush over inland
areas, or even re-freezing moisture where little/no snow
occurred over NE NC.

Shortwave ridging behind the departing system will initiate a
brief warming trend today through midweek. Despite a good amount
of sunshine, expect sun will be doing work on snowmelt today,
and therefore most inland areas over to Hampton Roads remain in
the low to mid 30s. Some upper 30s to low 40s along the coast
from the MD Eastern Shore to NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, with milder temperatures on Wednesday, then turning
  cooler again Thursday.

Not as cold tonight (but still with lows in the 20s for most),
then turning milder Wed as a deep upper trough amplifies across
central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great
Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with
highs into the upper 40s NW to lower 50s SE. A a little cooler
Thursday with highs in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

- Trending cooler Thursday, with low-end precip chances Friday,
  possibly ending as some wintry precip.

- Dry, but temperatures remain below normal next weekend.

Medium range models and ensembles remain in decent agreement
that the late week timeframe remains colder than average, with
low end shower chances Friday/Friday night as the next system
impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a
rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Next weekend looks dry
and cold as another Arctic cold front crosses Sat, once again
ushering in cold high pressure from the N. Highs by Sunday-
Monday only in the 30s N with lower 40s S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning. NNE
winds will remain breezy at the coast for the next few hours
before diminishing around and after sunrise. VFR conditions
continue today and tonight.

Outlook: Winds become SW and increasingly breezy on Wednesday.
A small chc for a shower by Friday, but generally VFR
conditions prevail into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters south of
Parramore Island, including the Currituck Sound and Mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in the
remaining waters.

- Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for the coastal
waters tomorrow for lingering seas.

- Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by additional elevated winds
by the end of the week into the weekend.

A winter storm is currently impacting the coastal waters, bringing
reduced visibilities and elevated winds. High pressure is starting
to build across the area as low pressure off the North Carolina
coast slowly lifts northeastward. The tightened gradient, combined
with good CAA, has led to winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts
across the northern coastal waters and Bay, with winds of 25-30 kts
and gusts of 35-40 kts being observed across the southern coastal
waters and the mouth of the Bay. A Gale Warning remains in effect
for waters south of Parramore Island, the mouth of the Bay, and the
Currituck Sound, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in all
remaining waters through the first part of tonight. Seas have
rapidly built to 6-9 ft in the coastal waters, with highest seas
being measured in the southern waters due to the favorable NE wind
direction. Waves in the Bay have built to 2-5 ft (highest at the
mouth of the Bay).

Winds will remain elevated through late this evening and into
tonight. High pressure will continue to build across the area late
tonight through Tuesday as the coastal low shifts well offshore, and
winds will quickly diminish in response. Gales and wind-driven SCAs
will be allowed to expire by daybreak Tuesday. This reprieve from
winds will be fleeting as another system approaches the region on
Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase once again Wednesday morning
as a warm front lifts across the region and strong low pressure
system advances northeastward across the Great Lakes. The gradient
tightens significantly and the in-house probs for the coastal waters
for wind gusts >=34 kts range between 50% to near 90% (highest
farther offshore between 15-20 nm). Probs for sustained winds of 34
kts or greater remain relatively low, maxing out around 15% in the
northern waters. A Gale Watch for a majority of the coastal waters
may be needed if confidence increases in a sustained period of gale-
force gusts, though SW flow is typically not as favorable for gales
panning out as expected. As the aforementioned low lifts well north
of the area on Thursday afternoon, winds will diminish to 10-15 kts
through Friday morning. Yet another system will approach the region
by late week, bringing possibly another round of strong winds to the
local waters.

Despite an expected downtrend in winds late tonight through Tuesday,
seas will be slower to subside and will likely remain near or just
briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the
second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories
will need to be issued for all waters currently under a Gale Warning
for seas through Tuesday evening as seas of 5 ft or greater are
still expected. Seas of 3-4 ft and waves in the Bay of 2-3 ft are
forecast for Tuesday night. Seas will start to build with the
secondary wind surge on Wednesday. With southwesterly winds that
will shift to a WSW direction by Wednesday afternoon, forecast wave
heights generally range between 4-7 ft in the coastal waters (may
briefly reach 8ft in the northern coastal waters) and 3-4 ft in the
Bay. Seas will drop briefly below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon
before trending upwards again by late week into the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048-
     060>062-065>069-079>090-092-093-095>100-509>518-520-
     523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...JKP/NB