131
FXUS61 KAKQ 121132
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
632 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the area today, before a dry cold
front crosses the area later tonight into Thursday. High pressure
builds back into the area Friday into the weekend. Another frontal
system potentially crosses the area later Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate back closer to average today.

- A dry cold front crosses the area tonight.

A weak shortwave is passing over the area early this morning,
resulting in increased mid-level clouds and a few
sprinkles/flurries. Dewpoint depressions of 20+ degrees and high
cloud bases are limiting precipitation to isolated
flurries/sprinkles despite higher radar returns. Skies clear out by
sunrise as the shortwave pivots offshore. Temperatures should be
able to fall back into the low to mid 30s as skies clear.

High pressure will be centered near the Gulf coast and a dry cold
front will be approaching from the NW today. Dry weather/sunny skies
are expected today. Warmer today thanks to a SW wind/WAA ahead of
the approaching front, highs will generally range from the upper 50s
to low 60s. The front crosses the area later this evening into
tonight, bringing a brief uptick in cloud cover (highest south) but
remaining dry. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s north to the
low-mid 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue.

High pressure builds further north Thursday into Thursday night
resulting in continued mostly sunny/dry conditions and diminishing
winds. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s
(mid 50s Eastern Shore). High pressure builds over the area Thursday
night allowing for good radiational cooling and lows in the upper
20s to low 30s inland and mid-upper 30s closer to the coast. High
pressure remains parked over the area on Friday resulting in another
dry day with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another mainly dry cold front likely crosses the area Sunday into
Monday.

High confidence remains in northwesterly flow aloft into the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked over the
SE CONUS into Saturday. Another frontal system approaches Sunday
into Monday, but this will likely be another dry frontal passage
with all main models continuing to trend drier. There will also be a
decent warm up out ahead of this front on Sunday as southerly flow
increases. Highs on Sunday will top out in the low 70s inland and
upper 60s at the coast. Monday will have highs in the upper 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 12z/12 TAF period.
Generally SKC skies are expected throughout the period. WSW/SW
winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts ~25kt later this morning
through this afternoon. Winds gradually diminish tonight and
become W to WNW behind a dry cold front.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday with breezy conditions during
the afternoon hours through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain effect for all waters into
  Thursday.

- Strong WSW winds continue trough  early Thursday.

- Elevated marine conditions continue through the weekend and into
early next week.

Early morning weather analysis shows a sub 990mb low pressure over
northeastern Canada and a 1028mb high pressure over southwestern
Florida. The pressure gradient from these two systems remain strong
over the area leading to WSW winds between 20 to 25 kt with gusts
upwards of 30 kt across the bay and ocean and 15 to 20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt across the rivers and sound. Waves across the bay are
between 2 to 4ft with waves offshore being between 4 to 6ft with
highest well offshore.  Small Craft Advisories remain in place
across all waters.  Through the day winds will remain out of the WSW
between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. There could be the
potential of some 35kt gusts as the pressure gradient tightens due to
a passing system to the north and an approaching cold front.
However, local wind probs of 35kt gusts remain below 30%. Seas today
will remain between 2 to 4ft with waves offshore being between 4 to
6ft. By tonight, a cold front will pass through the area allowing
winds to shift out of the west. Again, some high-res guidance does
show wind gusts exceeding 35 kt. However, the air aloft is not as
cold as the previous cold front and the front is not as strong.
Winds are still expected to remain in SCA criteria with speeds
between between 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30 kt. By Thursday
afternoon Winds are expected to decrease as high pressure moves back
over the area. Benign marine conditions are expected to return to
the area late Thursday and last through the start of the weekend.
Looking ahead into the weekend and early next week elevated marine
conditions increase as multiple frontal passages are progged to move
across the local waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 630 AM EST Wednesday...

It will be dry and windy today, with min RH values around 30%,
highs in the upper 50s to around 60F, and WSW/SW winds around 15
mph with gusts 25-30 mph. As such, conditions may be close to
increased fire danger (IFD) criteria. Will continue to monitor
the latest trends to see if RH trends lower. If it does, a
short-fused IFD may be needed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...HET/RHR
FIRE WEATHER...