660
FXUS61 KAKQ 022351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the coast this evening. A weak coastal
low develops off the Southeast coast this evening before moving
northeast offshore Monday. This will likely bring light to
moderate rain across southeastern portions of the area tonight
into early Monday. Dry conditions return Monday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Weak coastal low pressure brings increasing clouds and rain
  back to the area tonight.

Clouds will continue to thicken from west to east this evening
with increasing PoPs spreading northward tonight as weak low
pressure develops off the Carolinas. The bulk of the rainfall
will be focused across the SE with lesser amounts to the W and
NW. PoPs increase to likely/categorical after midnight in the SE
with chance PoPs NW. QPF ranges from a few hundredths-0.1" for
Richmond and points N and W with 0.5-0.75" for the SE third of
the area. Localized totals over 1" are possible, especially for
areas near the Albemarle Sound in NC. Lows tonight range from
the mid 40s in the Piedmont to the mid and upper 50s from
Hampton Roads Metro southward into coastal NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Showers linger near the coast Monday morning, moving offshore
  during the afternoon with clearing skies late.

- High pressure builds into the region from the west on Tuesday with
  dry and cool conditions.

Showers continue across the eastern half of the area through mid
morning before tapering off in the afternoon. The aforementioned
upper low drops SSE off the Carolina coast by Monday afternoon with
drier air moving into the region. Clouds clear from west to east by
the mid to late afternoon with highs mainly in the low 60s. Cool and
dry Monday night with low temps mostly in the low/mid 40s but a few
upper 30s are likely in the typically cooler rural spots NW of
Richmond.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals on Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 60s (coolest near the coast and slightly
warmer inland). Forecast soundings show plentiful dry air aloft so
expect dew points to mix out into the upper 20s to low 30s by the
afternoon, resulting in RH values 25-35%. Winds will decrease as
high pressure builds in but there could be enough of a breeze for
some fire weather concerns during the afternoon, especially in the
Piedmont where rainfall from tonight`s system is meager. Chilly
Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead with clear skies and
light winds. Went a few degrees below blended guidance which results
in lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

High pressure moves offshore on Wednesday ahead of a dry front
associated with low pressure near the Great Lakes. The gradient will
steepen by Wednesday afternoon with SW winds becoming gusty. Temps
warm above average with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dew
points/RH are not expected to be as low as Tuesday afternoon but
with the gusty winds, fire weather could again be a concern. The
front crosses the area Wednesday night with low temps in the mid 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- High pressure returns Thursday with near normal temperatures.

- Upper trough and cold front approach the region Friday with
  limited moisture.

Sunny, cooler, and dry conditions are expected on Thursday. High
temps range from around 60 degrees for the Eastern Shore with mid
60s possible to the south and west. Overnight lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s. High pressure drifts offshore on Friday with breezy
southerly flow developing ahead of the next front approaching from the
west. Guidance does not show much deep moisture with this front so
have mainly chance and slight chance PoPs across the north Friday
night. Warmer on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A
bit cooler on Sunday as another front approaches the region with
limited moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions to start off the 00z/03 TAF period. Clouds
increase from the west this evening with rain spreading
northward as weak coastal low pressure develops. Rain spreads
north over the next couple of hours, impacting ECG first (~02z)
and then spreading towards ORF, PHF, RIC and eventually SBY by
~09z. CIGs drop to MVFR at all sites, with IFR eventually
spreading to RIC and ECG (less confidence at PHF and especially
ORF). Limited VSBY to low end MVFR as precip intensity is not
expected to be heavy but could briefly drop below 3SM in any
heavier showers. Rain tapers off late morning into the afternoon
with winds becoming NNW. Conditions improve from W to E during
the afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure is expected to bring VFR conditions Mon
night onward.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 150 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions continue through this evening.

- Low pressure develops off the Carolina coast tonight through Tuesday
  morning, bringing another round of SCAs across the local
  waters Monday through Tuesday.

Benign marine conditions prevail this afternoon as high pressure is
just offshore of the waters. Winds are E at 5-10 kt with 1-2 ft
seas/waves. Winds become NE at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by
around midnight as low pressure begins to develop off the Carolina
coast. The low quickly tracks NNE to a position offshore of the VA
coast by midday. The tightening pressure gradient on the back side
of the low will allow winds turn to the N and increase to ~20 kt
with gusts of 25 kt by Monday AM across the Lower Ches Bay and
southern coastal waters by around sunrise. With local wind probs for
sustained 18 kt winds now 50-80%, have issued SCAs starting at 11z/6
AM for the lower bay, coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and
Currituck Sound. Given that CAA will initially be very weak,
northerly winds should remain a couple knots below SCA thresholds
elsewhere through the day on Mon. A secondary (stronger) push of CAA
arrives from the NW Monday evening with CAA continuing Monday night-
Tue AM. Solid/strong SCAs are likely across the entire bay, ocean,
and Lower James during this time with NW winds averaging around 25
kt with gusts of 30-35 kt (slightly less on the Lower James). SCAs
begin at 7 PM Monday for the remainder of the marine zones (with the
exception of the upper rivers) and are in effect until 18z/1 PM
Tuesday. Wind probs for gale force gusts are low, but non-zero (10-
25%) Monday night-early Tue AM. So, while there will likely be a few
gusts in excess of 35 kt at elevated sites, there is not enough
confidence in frequent 34+ kt gusts to issue a Gale Watch attm.

Winds temporarily diminish Tuesday night-early Wednesday as high
pressure briefly settles overhead, but another round of SCAs is
likely from late Wed-Thu both ahead of and behind a cold front (with
SW winds becoming NW).

Seas build to 3-5 ft (highest S) by Monday AM before building to 5-6
ft in all nearshore waters by Monday night. Waves on the Ches Bay
build to ~4 ft by Monday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ630-631-638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ632>634-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...ERI