051
FXUS61 KALY 031019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
619 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today and much of tomorrow will be dry and seasonably warm, but
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase from west
to east tomorrow afternoon and evening. Friday will see a few
showers, with a better chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday with another cold frontal passage. Behind
this front, tranquil weather and below normal temperatures are
expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

- Beneficial rainfall expected late Thu afternoon into Fri
  morning, especially areas west of I-87.

- Patchy frost possible across portions of the southern
  Adirondacks Mon and Tue mornings.

Discussion:
As of 2:15 AM EDT...Our region remains under a 1017 mb surface
high, which has allowed for skies to remain mostly clear with
light and variable winds for most areas. While winds remain
elevated at 5-8 kt for portions of the Capital District within
the Hudson Valley, the remainder of the region has seen
favorable radiational cooling conditions with temperatures in
the 40s to mid 50s per latest ASOS and NYS mesonet obs. We thus
went below NBM temperatures for overnight lows tonight, with low
to mid 40s for some of the normally cooler high-terrain areas
and upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog will also develop
between now and daybreak, then dissipate within a couple hours
after sunrise.

Today through early tomorrow afternoon...Today, the surface high
slides off to our east, allowing winds to shift to the south.
Winds remain light, but with deep mixing we should see highs
climb well into the 70s to low 80s under partly to mostly sunny
skies. While an isolated shower can`t totally be ruled out over
the ADKs, most areas will stay dry. The sfc high remains off to
our east tonight, but will still be close enough for any of the
more sheltered areas that can decouple to see favorable
radiational cooling conditions once again. Greatest chance is
for eastern areas, closer to the high. Lows will generally range
from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Patchy fog will be possible again
tonight. Thursday will start similar to today, although the
pressure gradient tightens and the low- level jet strengthens to
25-35kt as the day goes on. With deep mixing, this will lead to
wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Thursday high temperatures will be
similar to today. We also lowered dew points both days by a few
to several degrees from the NBM.

Thursday afternoon and night...A broad upper low will be sitting
north of the Great Lakes, vertically stacked above an occluded
sfc low. An upper shortwave rotating around the periphery of the
upper low  will help to drive a cold front through our region
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Moisture increases with
PWATs rising to 1.4-1.6", and forcing looks relatively strong
with our region in the right entrance region of an upper jet
streak. This should allow for a line of showers and
thunderstorms to track across the region from west to east
Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night. SPC has placed
portions of our western ADKs and Mohawk Valley into a marginal
risk for severe weather, as there will be around 40 kt of deep-
layer shear here overlapping with 500-750 J/kg of SBCAPE. With
the strong LLJ overhead, some gusty winds could mix down within
any showers/storms, but at this time it does not look like there
will be enough instability for sever weather further east,
especially with the cold front arriving past peak daytime
heating here. Briefly heavy rain is possible within any
thunderstorms, but given fast storm motions, diminishing
instability, and very dry antecedent conditions we are not
worried about any hydro issues. The line of showers/storms
should weaken and move off to our east by sunrise Friday
morning. Lows will be a little warmer than the previous few
nights, mainly in the 50s to low 60s.

Friday and Friday night...We may see a few isolated showers on
Friday, but overall the trend has been for a drier day due to
lack of large-scale forcing and the deeper moisture departing
off to our east. It will be breezy again, but not quite as windy
as Thursday. Despite being behind the cold front, we will
actually see another surge of warmer air advected into the
region with the southwesterly low-level jet strengthening in the
afternoon into Friday night. We may see a few showers around
Friday night ahead of our next cold front. Lows Friday night
will once again be in the 50s to low 60s.

Saturday...Another upper shortwave will become negatively
tilted as it tracks around the base of the upper low that
remains centered to our west. This will push another, stronger
cold front through our region Saturday. There still remains a
lot of uncertainty in the timing of the frontal passage, but the
00z GFS/CMC have trended slower, towards the solution the Euro
has been showing for the past day or so. If there slower trend
continues, then we may see more instability across the Mid
Hudson Valley and southwestern New England Saturday afternoon.
Given that there will be fairly impressive low-level and deep-
layer shear in place, we may have to watch for a few stronger
storms here if the cold front continues to trend slower.
Regardless of the exact timing, we should see some additional
much- needed rain with the cold frontal passage. Highs Saturday
will depend on the timing of the front, but could spike into
the low 80s for our southeastern areas ahead of the front.

Saturday night through the middle of next week...The cold front
tracks off to our east Saturday night, ushering a much cooler
airmass into the region. While some lake effect/enhanced showers
will be possible across the western ADKs in the wake of the
front, most areas will remain dry with high pressure building
overhead through the middle of next week. Daytime highs will be
below normal Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s, with some 30s
for the higher terrain areas, especially Sunday and Monday
nights. Will have to watch for some patchy frost in these areas
if we go clear and calm under the high. Looking ahead to days
8-14, the CPC is expecting below normal temperatures and near to
below normal precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR satellite imagery currently shows fairly clear skies over
the region with just some patchy clouds around 7-10 kt in the
area near KALB and KGFL. With good radiational cooling occurring
overnight, some patchy fog developed near KGFL/KPSF, allowing
for IFR conditions for visibility. With sunrise now underway,
this fog will begin dissipating, and IFR conditions are not
expected after 12z, with any MVFR mist ending shortly after as
well.

During the day on today, flying conditions will be VFR. Clear
skies are expected in the morning with sct-bkn diurnal clouds
around 5-8 kft developing in the afternoon, mainly for KALB,
KGFL and KPSF. These clouds should dissipate towards evening,
allowing for a mostly clear sky for tonight. Southerly winds
will be 5-10 kts during the day on Wednesday. With skies staying
clear and winds becoming light, some fog may develop in the
late night hours again for KGFL and KPSF, which could result in
another brief period of IFR conditions for visibility for those
sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25-35 mph Thursday, along with RH values as low
as 35-45% Thursday afternoon...

Southerly winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts possibly as
high as 25-35 mph Thursday afternoon, especially in the north-
south oriented valleys. RH values are currently expected to drop
into the 35-40% range, and could potentially push into the
30-35% range in a few areas in the lowe-end of guidance is
correct. The greatest overlap of low RH and gusty winds looks to
be mainly from the Capital District north and east. Most areas
have seen little to no rain over the past several days,

RH values should begin to rise Thursday late afternoon into
early evening as dew points rise ahead of a cold front. This
cold front will bring a widespread wetting rainfall Thursday
evening into Friday morning.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula