492
FXUS61 KALY 171026
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
626 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures through the rest of the night across the ADKs
where there has been more clearing relative to the rest of the
region. Otherwise, only minor changes from the previous
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak surface low will bring showers to the region today, but no
significant impacts are expected.

2) Dry and cool weather returns Friday into Saturday, with another
low pressure system expected to bring widespread rainfall on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...Current sfc analysis shows a
1028 mb area of high pressure sitting over southeastern Canada,
with a frontal boundary draped to the W/SW of our region. With
dew points in the 50s to 60s and fairly widespread cloud cover
across the region, temperatures are running several degrees
warmer than the previous few nights. Most areas are in the 60s,
except for the ADKs which have had more clearing that allowed
temps to fall into the mid 50s. Temperatures only drop a couple
more degrees from current levels between now and sunrise. Patchy
fog will also be possible anywhere breaks in the clouds develop
due to abundant low-level moisture. Mainly dry weather is
expected through the rest of the night.

Today, a weak area of low pressure will track from the Ohio Valley
into our region along the frontal boundary in response to a weak
upper impulse. This will actually help lift the boundary back north
as a warm front, although the sfc front will only get to around the
I-90 corridor. With ample moisture, there will be enough forcing
(convergence along the boundary, mid-level warm advection/isentropic
lift) for scattered to numerous showers to develop from mid-morning
through this evening. Areas closer to I-84 may stay dry through
early to mid afternoon. PWATs surge to 1.8-2.0" with warm cloud
depths of around 12 kft, which could allow for some very heavy
downpours. Some training of showers can`t be ruled out with flow
aloft relatively parallel to the frontal boundary. However, fast
flow aloft and an overall lack of instability (MUCAPE <500 J/kg)
should prevent any significant hydro issues, although some ponding
of water in the typical urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas
will be possible. WPC has kept their marginal risk ERO just west of
our region for today. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out
south of I-90, but lack of instability should also prevent any
severe weather today. High temperatures were lowered a few degrees
from the NBM for areas north of I-90 on the cool side of the
boundary, but stayed near NBM highs (mid and uper 70s) for southern
areas where it will take longer for showers to arrive. Showers come
to and end from northwest to southeast this evening into early
tonight, with total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.1 to 0.5".


KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will track through the region
tonight, pushing the showers off to our south and east. Ahead of the
front, some patchy fog will be possible tonight due to lingering low-
level moisture. Tomorrow, much cooler and less humid weather is
expected with breezy NW winds. We continued to bump up winds/gusts
and lower dew points from the NBM Friday in the post-frontal
airmass. Highs will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys).

Friday night, a strong (1028+ mb) sfc high builds over southern
Canada. While it won`t be perfectly centered overhead, its proximity
should allow for diminishing winds and favorable radiational cooling
conditions Friday night. Lows will be in the 30s (terrain) to 40s
(valleys). Some patchy frost can`t be ruled out in the
sheltered areas of the ADKs Friday night. The sfc high slides
overhead Saturday, resulting in a gorgeous early fall day.
Morning sun will give way to increasing PM clouds with highs
mainly in the 60s with low humidity.

Saturday night into Sunday, our next sfc low tracks over the region,
bringing widespread rain/showers. Strengthening LLJ with a Gulf
moisture connection will lead to PWATs surging to around 2 std dev
above normal. Mid-level warm advection and the right entrance of the
upper jet to our north will provide plenty of forcing for ascent. At
this time, Sunday looks like a washout for most of the region. NBM
seems to have caught on to the fact that temps will likely remain
well below normal Sunday, but still doesn`t look quite cool
enough. We therefore opted to lower temps a couple degrees from
the NBM, with 50s in the high terrain and low 60s for most
valley areas.

The forecast continues to trend drier for early next week, as
guidance is coming into better agreement that another strong sfc
high building into southern Canada will help push a frontal boundary
back south of our region, keeping us dry and seasonably cool.
However, some uncertainly remains in exactly how close this boundary
will stall to the region and whether or not it may be able to lift
back north towards the middle of next week, bringing with it
additional rain chances. Will continue to monitor and refine this
part of the forecast over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...As of 6:25 AM EDT, GFL currently seeing
LIFR vsbys and cigs due to fog/mist, but all other terminals
remain VFR with BKN to OVC mid- level clouds. MVFR cigs have
been slower to develop than previously expected, so have further
delayed onset of MVFR cigs at ALB/POU/PSF from previous TAF
issuance. While GFL will continue to see periods of IFR through
early to mid- morning, other terminals will generally stay VFR
through mid to late morning before cigs trend down to MVFR.
Still expecting showers to overspread the region from west to
east early this afternoon. Within showers, MVFR vsbys expected.
Cigs should trend down to IFR at ALB/GFL/PSF, but may remain VFR
at POU.

Showers end 23-02z, but with substantial low-level moisture
lingering expecting additional fog/mist and possibly low stratus to
start tonight. This will last until a cold front tracks through
the region, bringing drier air and increasing W/NW winds that
should help mix out the fog/low stratus and allow conditions to
return back to VFR for the second half of the night. Exception
is PSF where upslope flow will result in MVFR/IFR stratus
persisting through the end of the TAF period.

Winds remain light and variable through late morning, then increase
to 4-8 kt from the S/SE at ALB/POU/PSF this afternoon. Winds drop
back to light and variable after sunset at all terminals as showers
end, then increase to 4-8 kt again behind the cold frontal passage
after 04z tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35