019
FXUS61 KALY 171510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT
1110 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool today and tomorrow with scattered areas of
showers. After the warm front moves through the area Wednesday
night, warm and humid air will surge into the region on Thursday
ahead of a cold front. This cold front on Thursday may result
in strong to even severe thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Widespread cloudy skies today with scattered areas of light
showers as weak low and mid-level warm air and moisture advection
continues. A few more organized areas of rain have tracked
through the mid-Hudson Valley into NW CT as weak shortwaves
embedded in the southwest flow aloft track through. With our
sfc warm front stalled well to our south near the VA/NC border,
much of the Northeast and mid- Atlantic remains within the cool
conveyor belt ahead of the front and plagued with this cool and
cloudy day. We trended temperatures downwards today a few
degrees based on trends and forecast soundings which show low
stratus lingering much of the day. Highs only expected to reach
into the mid to upper 60s with some near 70 in the immediate
Hudson Valley but that may even be tough to achieve.

Heading into tonight, weak warm air and moisture advection
continues maintaining cloudy skies and mild temperatures. The
clouds and increased humidity/muggy conditions will keep it mild
tonight with overnight lows only falling into the mid-60s. A few
addition light showers remain possible overnight (mainly south
of I-90) as weak shortwaves continue tracking within the
southwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Increasing confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms on
  Thursday as a potent cold front tracks eastward across the
  Northeast with damaging winds the primary hazard.

- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
  and uncomfortable humidity levels on Thursday may necessitate
  heat advisories, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley as heat
  indices climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Discussion:

Tonight, strengthening warm air and moisture advection combined
with an additional weak shortwave tracking northeastward
through the southwest flow aloft will likely support clouds and
additional areas of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms
given some weak elevated instability. Any storm can produce
brief heavy downpours given high PWATs nearing 2 inches and high
freezing heights above 12kft supporting efficient warm rain
processes.

On Wednesday, the warm front may remain hung up over the area
with the best chance for clearing west of the Hudson River
Valley. Once any cloud breaks develop and allow sun to generate
some instability, forecast soundings show a classic "tall skinny
CAPE" signature given a very warm/moist atmosphere through the
column. Mid-level lapse rates look rather weak under 5.5C/km
which should limit severe weather potential but localized heavy
downpours are certainly possible from such a humid air mass and
unidirectional flow through the column. In fact, PWATS range 2 -
2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS and rank in
the 95th+ percentile of the model climatology for mid-June.
Showers/storms diminish Wed night as upper level ridging
strengthens aloft but it will remain muggy and uncomfortable
overnight.

Attention then turns to Thursday when there are concerns for
both heat and severe weather impacts. An intensifying shortwave
trough and deepening sfc low tracking northeastward through
Ontario. Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of the low will
advect a very warm air mass into the Northeast with 850 hPa
isotherms +17C to +20C will likely result in high temperatures
rising to near 90 in valley areas. Probabilistic guidance has
trended upward showing a 10 to 40% chance for temperatures to
exceed 90 in valley areas Thurs afternoon. The combination of
high humidity and very warm temperatures will result in heat
index values around 95 degrees in valley areas which reaches
our heat advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor but heat
sensitive populations should be mindful of potential heat
related impacts (heat stroke/heat exhaustion) on Thursday and
limit unnecessary outdoor activities. WPC`s HeatRisk continues
to show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or level 2
categories as well.

Thursday, we continue to the monitor severe weather potential
as well. Guidance has some timing differences. If front arrives
during peak heating when instability values are highest this
would support organized convection and increased potential for
severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for a period of above normal
  temperatures early next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50
  to 90% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees in valley
  areas on Monday. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

Discussion:

Upper level troughing continues into Friday, resulting in
additional chances for showers, especially north of I-90.
Temperatures trend relatively cooler and less humid in the wake
of the front but it will still be seasonable for mid-June.
Upper level subsidence strengthens in the wake of the trough for
Saturday as high pressure builds into the Northeast, giving us a
very pleasant Saturday with seasonable temperatures. By Saturday
night into Sunday we will have to monitor a potential "ridge
roller" as large scale ridging and heat from the Midwest/Ohio
Valley builds eastward with guidance hinting at potential
shortwaves riding along the northern periphery that could
support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms. The hot air
mass looks to shift into the Northeast by the early part of
next week resulting in possible extreme heat conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Currently VFR conditions
are observed at all sites except KPOU where there is an IFR
ceiling. Winds are light and variable or from a southerly
direction. Radar shows light showers, but they are expanding in
coverage across the area. Overnight cigs lower to MVFR at KGFL,
KALB and KPSF and visibilites may drop to MVFR during periods of
rain and fog. KPOU expected to stay IFR. Some improvement
possible all areas on Tuesday during the afternoon during
daytime heating although a passing shower may affect any of the
TAF sites. A period of steadier rain Tuesday evening may again
lower cigs/visby to IFR. Winds remain light an variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND