186
FXUS61 KALY 050612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
212 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mostly sunny, fair
and dry weather with above normal temperatures today and Monday.
A cold front will increase clouds on Tuesday with periods of showers
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Mich cooler and drier
weather returns for Thursday and Friday with high pressure building
back in over the Northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 212 AM EDT...High pressure will continue to be near the
NJ and Mid Atlantic Coasts today providing the region with
abundant sunshine and anomalously warm temps once again (but not
record breaking). After morning fog burns off, expect another
pleasant early October day. Mid and upper level heights will
still be 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal based on the NAEFS with H850
temps also above normal by a couple STDEVs with actual 850 hPa
temps about +13 to +15C. Max temps will still be above normal by
15+ degrees with highs 80 to 85F in the valleys and 70s to near
80F over the higher terrain. Humidity levels will be fine and
we used the 25th percentile of the NBM due to the day-time
mixing. Mostly clear to clear skies under the upper ridge will
allow for radiational cooling and patchy fog in the major river
valleys with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The mid and upper level ridge axis begins to shift downstream
of the region with southwesterly flow developing over NY and New
England. The sfc anticyclone begins to move eastward into the
western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front will be slowly approaching
from southeast Canada, the Great Lakes Region and the Central
Plains. South to southwest winds will increase in advance of the
front with a tighter sfc pressure gradient and mixing. Wind
gusts are not expected to exceed 20 mph, but we will be vigilant
for any fire weather concerns from our state fire wx contacts
due to the extended dry weather. Temps will be above normal
again with highs in the 70s to lower 80s over the forecast area.
Mid and high clouds increase from the west Mon night. A few
prefrontal showers will get close to the western Adirondacks by
daybreak. The increasing clouds and breezy conditions should
prevent fog formation. Lows will be milder with lows in the 50s
over most of the region.

Unsettled weather returns to the forecast on Tuesday with falling
low to mid level heights ahead of the mid and upper level trough and
the cold front. PWATS increase to 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal.  Low-
level moisture convergence increases ahead of the cold front and a
sfc trough for showers to expand in coverage by the afternoon
especially north and west of the Capital Region. Some weak
elevated instability will be present for a few rumbles of
thunder. The better coverage of showers looks like the night
time period for eastern NY and western New England based on the
NBM/medium range guidance and ensembles. Max temps will still
run above normal with upper 70s to lower 80s for highs below
1000 ft in elevations, except some upper 60s to mid 70s over the
higher terrain. It will remain breezy ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- There is a 60-80% chance for greater than one half inch of
  rainfall across the region next Tue night into Wed pm.

Discussion:

The NBM/medium range guidance/ensembles continue to strongly
support likely and categorical POP values for rainfall Tue
night into Wed morning with the slow moving cold front crossing
the region. There are some notable differences in the guidance
with how fast the front cross the region and a drying trend
beginning Wed morning. The ensembles and NBM lean towards most
if not all the rainfall ending by 18Z/2 pm Wed. The NBM probs
for a half an inch of rainfall or greater remain high at 60-80%
for the 24-hr period ending 00Z/8 pm Wed. The probs for an inch
or more of rain remains at 30-60%. Overall, a nice soaking
rainfall should squelch any fire wx concerns and alleviate the
abnormally dry or drought conditions a bit. After lows in the
mid 40s (southern Dacks) to mid/upper 50s (mid Hudson Valley/NW
CT) across the region, max temps will cool back down to
seasonal readings with highs in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s.
Strong post-frontal cold advection will occur from the afternoon
into the evening. Lows will fall into the 30s with some upper
20s over the Adirondack Park and eastern Catskills. A northerly
breeze should prevent much frost formation.

A cool Canadian air mass builds in for Thu with max temps
struggling to reach 60F. A 1035 hPa sfc anticyclone will ridge
in from southeast Canada with mostly sunny conditions and cool
temps with highs in the 50s with a few 60F readings in the
Hudson River Valley. Portions of the southern Dacks/southern
Greens may not get out of the 40s. A cold and frosty night is
likely Thu night with areas of frost where the growing season is
ongoing with lows in the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. The fair
weather continues on Friday with temps modifying to Oct
seasonal levels. An upper level disturbance and a cold front may
bring a few light showers north of the I-90 corridor to open
the weekend with temps near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z/Mon...High pressure over the region will bring
continued VFR conditions for much of the TAF period outside of
patchy fog during the nighttime hours, mainly at KGFL/KPSF,
where periods of IFR/LIFR will occur. Fog could develop within
the vicinity of KALB between 9-12z/Sun so maintained 6SM BCFG
there. Calm winds overnight will become south to southwesterly
at around 5 kt on Sunday trending calm again Sunday night.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Sunday October 5:
Albany: 91(1941)
Glens Falls: 87(1951)
Poughkeepsie: 91(1941)

Monday October 6:
Albany: 90(1900)
Glens Falls: 85(1910)
Poughkeepsie: 86(2007)

Tuesday October 7:
Albany: 89(1963)
Glens Falls: 87(1963)
Poughkeepsie: 88(1963)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...07