899
FXUS61 KALY 111724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1224 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.UPDATE...
Quick update to allow the Winter Storm Warning to expire at 7
AM for N. Herkimer, Hamilton and N. Fulton counties, as the
widespread snow has transitioned to narrow lake effect bands
early this morning. The lake effect should consolidate south of
the Adirondacks later this morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
As strengthening low pressure tracks from northern New England
into the Canadian Maritimes today, a cold northwest flow will
develop resulting in some lake effect and upslope snow showers.
Winds will become gusty today through Friday. Aside from some
lingering lake effect snow well north and west of Albany, dry
conditions should prevail Friday through Friday night with
continued below normal temperatures. A disturbance may bring
some light snow Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warning continues through 7 AM today for the
  southern Adirondacks.

- Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow for southern
  Herkimer County through 7 AM Friday.

- Wind Advisory 10 AM today to 10 AM Friday for the Berkshires
  and Litchfield Hills for gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

Discussion:

Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow developing early
this morning downwind of Lake Ontario in the W-NW flow/cold
advection regime. An anomalously cold air mass (850 mb
temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) moves in across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, resulting in Moderate lake induced
instability. A 290 degree flow trajectory in the mixed layer
with equilibrium levels rising to ~750 mb producing a potential
single snow band, with an upstream moisture connection to
Georgian Bay fueling inland extent into the Mohawk Valley.
Greatest accumulations still look to be in S. Herkimer
County(mainly just south of I-90), where 3-6" could occur where
the band persists longest. At least part of the snow band is
expected to extend down the Mohawk Valley into Montgomery County
where 1-3" snow is possible especially in western parts. Some
band fragments could even reach into parts of the Capital
District with a quick dusting to < 1" in some spots. Some light
upslope snow is also expected in far N. Herkimer County and into
the southern Greens with an inch or two of new snow.

W-NW winds will increase and become quite gusty with deep
mixing developing in the cold advection regime as the pressure
gradient strengthens. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across
most of the area, with 40-50 mph in the Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills where mixing looks slightly deeper from
forecast soundings. Temperatures will be colder, with the wind
making it feel worse. Highs will range from the 10s in the
higher terrain to around 30F in the mid Hudson Valley, with wind
chills/feels-like temperatures in the single digits below zero
to 10s.

Tonight, lake effect snow is expected to drift just south of
our area during the evening but due to some uncertainty in the
exact location, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going for
S. Herkimer County. Light isolated/scattered upslope snow
showers persist into W. Adirondacks too with perhaps additional
dustings. Otherwise, it will be dry and cold with lows in the
single digits to 10s and feels-like temperatures ranging from
around 10 below zero in the mountains to single digits in lower
elevations.

Friday looks mainly dry outside of some lake effect snow
showers over the W. Mohawk Valley and W. Adirondacks as the flow
trajectory backs to a westerly direction. Any lake effect looks
light with fairly low inversion heights < 800 mb and
Conditional lake induced instability. Outside of lake effect, it
will remain cold, dry and breezy. Wind Advisory extends into
Fri morning for Berkshires and Litchfield Hills, but we will
have to see how deep the mixing can get during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing with
  several chances for mainly light snow or snow showers.

Discussion:

Dry and cold conditions expected Fri night with weak surface
ridging over the area. Winds will become lighter too. Sat
morning looks dry, but increasing chances for some light snow
Sat afternoon into Sat night as upper level heights fall in
response to an upper low tracking SE from the upper Great Lakes.
With a positive tilt to the upper low/trough, any cyclogenesis
is expected to occur south/east well off the coast. At this time
it appears any accumulations would be < 1" with limited
forcing/moisture, but will continue to monitor trends.

It turns colder again Sun into Mon as the upper low/trough
moves across the region. Some light lake effect/upslope snow may
occur in some spots well west of the Hudson Valley, but overall
it looks mainly dry. 850 mb temperature anomalies are again
forecast to be -1 to -2 STDEV, ensuring below normal
temperatures continue. Another disturbance passing through the
mean trough may bring more light snow in the late Mon to Mon
night time frame. Dry weather returns Tue with short wave
ridging and continued cold temperatures. An approaching warm
front and a developing southerly flow could send temperatures
back to near normal levels on Wed, with a chance of light
rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals with a mix of low and mid level clouds, as
cyclonic flow remains entrenched across the region. Very brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur early this afternoon
mainly at KALB/KPSF due to lake effect/upslope snow showers.
This threat will diminish this evening as snow showers drift
south of the terminals. It will remain quite breezy at the
terminals with gusts around 25-40 kts this afternoon. Expect
winds to diminish tonight with the exception of KPSF, where
gusts around 20-30 kts are expected through Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ038.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...17